• 제목/요약/키워드: Quality of Predictions

검색결과 229건 처리시간 0.024초

Application of EFDC and WASP7 in Series for Water Quality Modeling of the Yongdam Lake, Korea

  • Seo, Dong-Il;Kim, Min-Ae
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제44권6호
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2011
  • This study aims to test the feasibility of combined use of EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) hydrodynamic model and WASP7.3 (Water Quality Analysis Program) model to improve accuracy of water quality predictions of the Yongdam Lake, Korea. The orthogonal curvilinear grid system was used for EFDC model to represent riverine shape of the study area. Relationship between volume, surface and elevation results were checked to verify if the grid system represents morphology of the lake properly. Monthly average boundary water quality conditions were estimated using the monthly monitored water quality data from Korean Ministry of Environment DB system. Monthly tributary flow rates were back-routed using dam discharge data and allocated in proportion to each basin area as direct measurements were not available. The optimum number of grid system was determined to be 372 horizontal cells and 10 vertical layers of the site for 1 year simulation of hydrodynamics and water quality out of iterative trials. Monthly observed BOD, TN, TP and Chl-a concentrations inside the lake were used for calibration of WASP7.3 model. This study shows that EFDC and WASP can be used in series successfully to improve accuracy in water quality modeling. However, it was observed that the amount of data to develop inflow water quality and flow rate boundary conditions and water quality data inside lake for calibration were not enough for accurate modeling. It is suggested that object-oriented data collection systems would be necessary to ensure accuracy of EFDC-WASP model application and thus for efficient lake water quality management strategy development.

머신러닝을 이용한 빅데이터 품질진단 자동화에 관한 연구 (A Study on Automation of Big Data Quality Diagnosis Using Machine Learning)

  • 이진형
    • 한국빅데이터학회지
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 빅데이터의 품질을 진단하는 방법을 자동화하는 방법을 제안하고 있다. 빅데이터의 품질진단을 자동화해야 하는 이유는 4차 산업혁명이 이슈화 되면서 과거보다 더 많은 볼륨의 데이터를 발생시키고 이 데이터들을 활용 하려는 요구가 증가하기 때문이다. 데이터는 급증하지만 데이터의 품질을 진단하기 위해 많은 시간이 소비된다면 데이터를 활용하기 위해 많은 시간이 걸리거나 데이터의 품질이 낮아질 수 있다. 그러면 이러한 낮은 품질의 데이터로부터 의사결정이나 예측을 한다면 그 결과 또한 잘못된 방향을 제시할 것이다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 많은 데이터를 신속하게 진단하고 개선할 수 있는 머신러닝 이용한 빅데이터 품질 향상을 위한 진단을 자동화 할 수 있는 모델을 개발하였다. 머신러닝을 이용하여 도메인 분류 작업을 자동화하여 도메인 분류 작업 시 발생할 수 있는 오류를 예방하고 작업 시간을 단축시켰다. 연구 결과를 토대로 데이터 변환의 중요성, 학습되지 않은 데이터에 대한 학습 시킬 수 있는 방안 모색, 도메인별 분류 모델을 개발에 대한 연구를 지속적으로 진행한다면 빅데이터를 활용하기 위한 데이터 품질 향상에 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

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불확실성을 고려한 통합유역모델링 (Integrated Watershed Modeling Under Uncertainty)

  • 함종화;윤춘경;다니엘 라욱스
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제49권4호
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2007
  • The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

실내공기질 모델을 이용한 환기 시스템의 공기 정화 효율성 평가 (Evaluation of Ventilation System Performance Using Indoor Air Quality Model)

  • 최성우
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 1997
  • Successful energy conservation and good indcfor air quality (IAQ) are highly dependent on ventilation system. Air filtration is a primary solution of indoor air control strategies in terms of reducing energy consumption and improving ihdoor air quality. A conventional system with bypass filter, as it is called variable-air-volume/bypass filtration system (VAV/BPFS), is a variation of the conventional variable air volume (VAV) systems, which is designed to eliminate indoor air pollutant and to save energy. Bypass filtration system equipped with a high-efficiency particulate filter and carbon absorbent provides additional cleaned air into indoor environments and maintain good IAQ for human health. The objectives of this research were to compare the relative total decay rate of indoor air pollutant concentrations, and to develop a mathematical model simulating the performance of VAV/BPFS. All experiments were performed in chamber under the controlled conditions. The specific conclusions of this research are: 1. The VAV/BPFS system is more efficient than the VAV system in removing indoor air pollutant concentration. The total decay rates of aerosol, and total volatile organic compound (TVOC) for the VAV/BPFS system were higher than those of the conventional VAV system. 2. IAQ model predictions of each pollutant agree closely with the measured values. 3. According to IAQ model evaluation, reduction of outdoor supply air results in decreased dilution removal rate and on increased bypass filtration removal rate with the VAV/BPFS. As a results, we recommends the VAV/BPFS as an alternative to conventional VAV systems.

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Stochastics and Artificial Intelligence-based Analytics of Wastewater Plant Operation

  • Sung-Hyun Kwon;Daechul Cho
    • 청정기술
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.145-150
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    • 2023
  • Tele-metering systems have been useful tools for managing domestic wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) over the last decade. They mostly generate water quality data for discharged water to ensure that it complies with mandatory regulations and they may be able to produce every operation parameter and additional measurements in the near future. A sub-big data group, comprised of about 150,000 data points from four domestic WWTPs, was ready to be classified and also analyzed to optimize the WWTP process. We used the Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) 25 package in order to statistically treat the data with linear regression and correlation analysis. The major independent variables for analysis were water temperature, sludge recycle rate, electricity used, and water quality of the influent while the dependent variables representing the water quality of the effluent included the total nitrogen, which is the most emphasized index for discharged flow in plants. The water temperature and consumed electricity showed a strong correlation with the total nitrogen but the other indices' mutual correlations with other variables were found to be fuzzy due to the large errors involved. In addition, a multilayer perceptron analysis method was applied to TMS data along with root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. This study showed that the RMSE in the SS, T-N, and TOC predictions were in the range of 10% to 20%.

Development of a Linear Stability Analysis Model for Vertical Boiling Channels Connecting with Unheated Risers

  • Hwang, Dae-Hyun;Yoo, Yeon-Jong;Zee, Seong-Quun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.572-585
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    • 1999
  • The characteristics of two-phase flow instability in a vertical boiling channel connecting with an unheated riser are investigated through the linear stability analysis model. Various two-phase flow models, including thermal non-equilibrium effects, are taken into account for establishing a physical model in the time domain. A classical approach to the frequency response method is adopted for the stability analysis by employing the D-partition method. The adequacy of the linear model is verified by evaluating experimental data at high quality conditions. It reveals that the flow-pattern-dependent drift velocity model enhances the prediction accuracy while the homogeneous equilibrium model shows the most conservative predictions. The characteristics of density wave oscillations under low-power and low-quality conditions are investigated by devising a simple model which accounts for the gravitational and frictional pressure losses along the channel. The necessary conditions for the occurrences of type-I instability and flow excursion are deduced from the one-dimensional D-partition analysis. The parametric effects of some design variables on low quality oscillations are also investigated.

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Retrospective Air Quality Simulations of the TexAQS-II: Focused on Emissions Uncertainty

  • Lee, DaeGyun;Kim, Soontae;Kim, Hyuncheol;Ngan, Fong
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.212-224
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    • 2014
  • There are several studies on the effects of emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC) from the industrial sources in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area on the high ozone events during the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) in summer of 2000. They showed that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event and suggested "imputation" of HRVOC emissions from the base inventory. Byun et al. (2007b) showed the imputed inventory leads to too high ethylene concentrations compared to the measurements at the chemical super sites but still too little aloft compared to the NOAA aircraft. The paper suggested that the lack of reactivity in the modeled Houston atmosphere must be corrected by targeted, and sometimes of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions from the large sources such as flares in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) distributed into the deeper level of the boundary layer. We performed retrospective meteorological and air quality modeling to achieve better air quality prediction of ozone by comparison with various chemical and meteorological measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study periods in August-September 2006 (TexA QS-II). After identifying several shortcomings of the forecast meteorological simulations and emissions inputs, we prepared new retrospective meteorological simulations and updated emissions inputs. We utilized assimilated MM5 inputs to achieve better meteorological simulations (detailed description of MM5 assimilation can be found in F. Ngan et al., 2012) and used them in this study for air quality simulations. Using the better predicted meteorological results, we focused on the emissions uncertainty in order to capture high peak ozone which occasionally happens in the HGB area. We described how the ozone predictions are affected by emissions uncertainty in the air quality simulations utilizing different emission inventories and adjustments.

Development of the CAP Water Quality Model and Its Application to the Geum River, Korea

  • Seo, Dong-Il;Lee, Eun-Hyoung;Reckhow, Kenneth
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2011
  • The completely mixed flow and plug flow (CAP) water quality model was developed for streams with discontinuous flows, a condition that often occurs in low base flow streams with in-stream hydraulic structures, especially during dry seasons. To consider the distinct physical properties of each reach effectively, the CAP model stream network can include both plug flow (PF) segments and completely mixed flow (CMF) segments. Many existing water quality models are capable of simulating various constituents and their interactions in surface water bodies. More complicated models do not necessarily produce more accurate results because of problems in data availability and uncertainties. Due to the complicated and even random nature of environmental forcing functions, it is not possible to construct an ideal model for every situation. Therefore, at present, many governmental level water quality standards and decisions are still based on lumped constituents, such as the carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD), the total nitrogen (TN) or the total phosphorus (TP). In these cases, a model dedicated to predicting the target concentration based on available data may provide as equally accurate results as a general purpose model. The CAP model assumes that its water quality constituents are independent of each other and thus can be applied for any constituent in waters that follow first order reaction kinetics. The CAP model was applied to the Geum River in Korea and tested for CBOD, TN, and TP concentrations. A trial and error method was used for parameter calibration using the field data. The results agreed well with QUAL2EU model predictions.

FIDES의 품질 보증 인자에 대한 신뢰도 예측 비교 분석 (Comparative Analysis of Reliability Predictions for Quality Assurance Factors in FIDES)

  • 윤철환;서진욱;정성근;오현웅
    • 항공우주시스템공학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2024
  • 최근 뉴스페이스 시대라고 불릴 만큼 우주 산업 분야는 점점 커져가고 있으며, 초소형 위성의 중요성도 또한 커지는 추세이다. 초소형 위성은 주로 COTS 부품을 사용하며 우주급 부품에 비해 낮은 신뢰도를 가지고 있지만 개발 기간, 비용, 성능 측면에서 장점을 가지고 있어 사용성이 확대되고 있다. COTS(Commercial Off-The-Shelf)는 상용으로 판매되는 제품을 가리키며, 이는 특정 조직이나 프로젝트에서 직접 제작하는 대신 시장에서 구입하여 사용되는 것을 의미한다. 위성은 발사되는 순간부터 수리가 불가능 하기 때문에 신뢰도 예측의 중요성은 크게 작용한다. 근래에는 신뢰도 예측 시 부품에 대한 인자 뿐만 아니라 시스템 level에서의 신뢰도를 예측하는 것이 더 중요하게 적용되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 신뢰도 예측 규격인 MIL-HDBK-217F와 업데이트된 RiAC-HDBK-217Plus와 FIDES를 비교해 본다. 그리고 FIDES 예측 기준에서 다양한 산업 분야에 적용될 수 있도록 구성한 제조업체의 품질 보증 요소를 세분화하여 우주 산업에 적합한 점수가 반영될 수 있도록 하였다.

분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS를 활용한 고해상도 중기 유량 예측 (High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction using distributed hydrological model WRF-Hydro and numerical weather forecast GDAPS)

  • 김소현;김보미;이가림;이예원;노성진
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제57권5호
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2024
  • 수량과 수질 및 수생태를 동시에 고려한 수자원 관리를 위해서는 신뢰도 높은 중기 유량 예측 기술이 필수적이다. 이를 위해서는 기상자료의 특성에 대한 이해와 더불어, 시공간 해상도가 낮은 기상예측 정보를 고해상도 분포형 수문모형에서 효과적으로 활용하는 기술이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 선행시간 288시간까지의 기상정보를 제공하는 Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS)를 활용해 고해상도 중기 유량 예측을 수행하고 적용성을 검토하였다. 이를 위해 대상 유역인 낙동강 지류 금호강 유역에 대해 100 m 공간해상도의 WRF-Hydro모형을 구축하고 기상지상관측자료 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)& Automated Synoptic Observing Systems (ASOS), 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS, 기상재분석자료 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)를 입력자료로 적용한 유량 예측 모의 결과를 비교하였다. 2020~2022년 기간 3개의 강우사상에 대해 유역 평균 누적 강우량을 분석 결과, AWS&ASOS대비 GDAPS는 36%~234%, GLDAS 재분석자료는 80%~153% 범위의 과소 및 과대 산정되었음을 확인하였다. AWS&ASOS입력자료로 한 유량 예측 결과는 KGE, NSE지표가 유역 말단 강창교 지점 기준 0.6이상이었으나, GDAPS 기반 유량 모의는 강우 사상에 따라 KGE 값이 0.871~-0.131로 큰 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편, 첨두 유량 오차는 GDAPS가 GLDAS보다 크거나 비슷했지만, 첨두 홍수 발생시간의 오차는 AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, GLDAS가 각각 평균 3.7시간, 8.4시간, 70.1시간으로, 첨두 발생시간 측면에서는 GDAPS의 오차가 GLDAS보다 적었다. GDAPS를 입력자료로 한 WRF-Hydro 고해상도 중기 유량 예측은 첨두 유량의 불확실성은 크지만, 첨두 유량 발생시점에 대한 정확도는 상대적으로 높아 수자원 시설 운영에 효과적으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.