• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1159-1166
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• 2012

Research on radiation oncologists has indicated that there is a shortage in supply of specialist workers in this field internationally, and also within Australia. However, there are no current estimates as to what the future Australian radiotherapy workforce will look like. This paper aims to review the current status and capacity of the three main disciplines that make up the radiation oncology workforce in Australia and project the workforce supply and demand for 2014 and 2019. Using data on the workforce from a survey of all radiotherapy facilities operating in Australia in 2008 a workforce model was constructed. This study found that there will be a future shortfall of radiation oncologists, radiation therapists and radiation oncology medical physicists working in radiation oncology treatment. By 2014 there will be 109 fewer radiation oncologists than what will be demanded, and by 2019 this figure will increase to a shortfall of 155 radiation oncologists. There was a projected shortfall of 612 radiation therapists by 2014, with this figure slightly decreasing to a shortfall of 593 radiation therapists in 2019. In 2014, there was projected to be a deficit of 104 radiation oncology medical physicists with a persisting shortfall of 78 in 2019. This future projected shortage highlights the need for radiation oncology workforce planning.

• Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.542-550
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• 2003

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected workforce of certified emergency nurses in Korea. Method: The methods used in this study are 1) demand & ratio model was used for the projected workforce of CEN, 2) Index functional formula was used for the suggestion of the number of general hospitals and hospitals, 3) Experts in Emergency care were contacted to get an opinion and information about the criteria of distribution and scope of CEN, 4) National and international internet data were collected. Result: The demand of CEN were analyzed by two ways; demand of Emergency centers only and demand of emergency centers including community centers. The number of CENs needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2010 was estimated at minimum of 1,512 to maximum1,576, 1,640 to 1,704 and 1,892 to 1,956 respectively. The projected number of CENs for the 2002 was 1% total available nurses in Korea, and 3.2 CENs per 100,000 population. Conclusion: It is really desirable that CENs not only work for hospital emergency centers but also for emergency related centers in community.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.243-250
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• 2003

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to suggest the number about the projected workforce of Certified Insurance Reviewer Nurses(CIRN) in Korea. Method : The following methods were used for this study: 1) national and international internet data were collected. 2) demand model was used for the prediction of the projected workforce of CIRN. 3) experts in insurance reviewing were contacted to get an opinion and information about the criteria of distribution and scope of CIRNs, 4) we figured out the maximum and minimum number of CIRN Korea needed as followed method, the maximum number was estimated that one CIRN would review 150 cases of Detailed Accounts for Examination and Treatment and the minimum was estimated 200 cases of it. 5) time series regression equation analysis was used for the prediction of number of CIRNs for the year 2003 to 2010. Result: 1) The prediction of CIRNs is as follows, there will be 2,313$\sim$2,827 of CIRN demanded in 2002, 2,500$\sim$3,069 in 2005 and 2,806$\sim$3,466 in 2010. 2) It is really desirable that CIRNs not only work for reviewing the detailed accounts for examination and treatment in hospital but also for inspecting allowance in individual insurance company. Conclusion : It is very desirable that the CIRN advocate the clients' rights because they will work for them satisfactory rather than other hospital experts group. But before settling the system of the CIRN in Korea, there would be its own professional role identity and a code of conduct.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.284-292
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• 2003

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to study the projected workforce of nephrology CNS in Korea. Method: Need models, ratio methods and expert opinion were used for projecting needs for the nephrology CNS. Result: In 2001, there are 28,046 ESRD(end stage of renal disease)patients, 304 renal replacement centers and 1695 nephrology nurses in Korea. the hemodialysis patients per hemodialysis nurse was 12. The number of nephrology CNS required to meet the demand for caring of ESRD patients in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at 616, 837 and 3105, respectively. 47 ESRD patients per nephrology CNS was revealed as a workforce standard before 2005. After 2005, It was 31 ESRD patients per nephrology CNS. Conclusion: This study founded the need to project future increments and development in supply of qualified nephrology CNS.

• Journal of Korean Academic Society of Home Health Care Nursing
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.37-45
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• 2002

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected workforce of home health care specialists in Korea. Method: Need model. ratio methods and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of home health care specialists. Result: 1) In 2002. there are 13 programs which offer one year home health specialist training. From those programs. they produced 3860 registered home health care specialists. 2) In 2002. there are 89 hospitalbased home health service units and 220 active home health care specialists. 3) In case of hospital- based home health service. average of 4 services per month for average of 3 months was assumed as workforce standard. 4) In case of community-based home health service. average of 4 services per month for 12 months was assumed as workforce standard. 5) The number of home health care specialists required to meet the demands for home health care population in 2000 and 2005 was estimated at minimum of 20.361 to maximum of 31.360 and 21.989 to 34.080. respectively. Conclusion: Community home health care agencies are needed to meet the demands of home health care.

• Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.59-70
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• 2003

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to project the workforce of occupational health nurse-specialist(OHN-S) in Korea. Method: Ratio model and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of OHNS. Result: 1) In 2002, there are 1,405 occupational health nurses in Korea. This represents 0.93% of total available nurses and 3 occupational health nurses per 100,000 population. 2) The number of OHN-S needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at 3,318, 3,351 and 3,515 respectively. The projected number of OHN-S of the year 2002 was 2.20% of total available nurses in Korea and 7 OHN-S per 100,000 population. Conclusion: In order to match the supply to the need, the professional organizations should direct their effort toward enacting legislation. Education systems should identify strategies in initialing advanced practice nursing programs in master's level as well as standardizing curriculums across the programs.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.25-51
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• 2017

This paper employs an Overlapping Generations Model to quantify the impacts of Korea's demographic transition toward an older population on the total output growth rate. The model incorporates the projected population through 2060 according by Statistics Korea. The effects of the low fertility and increased life expectancy rates are studied. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy. Under the assumption that the TFP growth rate will not slow considerably in the future, remaining at 1.3% per annum, the gross output growth rate of the Korean economy is projected to slow to 1.1% per annum in the 2050s, from 4.0% in the 2000s. The shrinking workforce due to the decline in fertility plays a significant role in the deceleration of the Korean economy. The increased life expectancy rate is expected to mitigate the negative effect, but the magnitude of its effect is found to be limited.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.149-169
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• 2018

Purpose : This study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the South Korea into 2030. Methods : In-and-out movement model was used to project the supply of physical therapists. The demand was projected according to the demand-based method which consists of four-stages such as estimation of the utilization rate of the base year, forecasting of health care utilization of the target years, forecasting of the requirements of clinical physical therapists and non-clinical physical therapists based on the projected physical therapists. Results : Based on the current productivity standards, there will be oversupply of 39,007 to 40,875 physical therapists under the demand scenario of average rate in 2030, undersupply of 44,663 to 49,885 under the demand scenario of logistic model, oversupply of 16,378 to 19,100 under the demand scenario of logarithm, and oversupply of 18,185 to 20,839 under the demand scenario of auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model in 2030. Conclusion : The result of this projection suggests that the direction and degree of supply of and demand for physical therapists varied depending on physical therapists productivity and utilization growth scenarios. However, the need for introduction of a professional physical therapist system and the need to provide long-term care rehabilitation services are actively being discussed in entering the aging society. If community rehabilitation programs for rehabilitation of disabled people and the elderly are activated, the demand of physical therapists will increase, especially for elderly people. Therefore, healthcare policy should focus on establishing rehabilitation service infrastructure suitable for an aging society, providing high-quality physical therapy services, and effective utilization of physical therapists.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.457-478
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• 2023

Background: This study aims to contribute to the adjustment of the appropriate doctor manpower by analyzing the distribution, supply and demand, and estimation of the doctor manpower. Methods: This study utilized the medical personnel data of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, population trend data of the National Statistical Office, and health insurance benefit performance data of the National Health Insurance Service. Based on 2021, we compared the number of doctors in actual supply and the number of doctors in demand according to the amount of medical use by gender and age for 250 regions. Logistic regression analysis and scenario analysis were performed to estimate the future medical workforce by considering the demand for doctors according to the future demographic structure, the size of the quota in medical schools, and the retirement rate. Results: There were 186 regions in which the supply of doctors was below average, and the average ratio of the number of doctors in supply to demand in the region was 62.1%. Conclusion: In order to increase the number of active doctors nationwide to at least 80%, 7,756 people must be allocated. The number of doctors in demand is estimated to decrease after increasing to 1.492 times in 2059. The future projected number of doctors is expected to increase to 1.349 times in 2050 and then decrease taking into account the doctor quota and the retirement rate.

• Asian Oncology Nursing
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.49-61
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• 2004

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses needed in the future. Method: Need models, ratio models and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses. Resul: 1. The demand for the oncology nurses was estimated 6,043 in the year 2003, 6,548 in the year 2005, and 4,556 in the year 2010. 2. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of hospitalized patients were estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-583 in the year 2005, and 448-672 in the year 2010. 3. The demand range of the middle and long term advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of sickbed were estimated 507-787 in the year 2005, 523-810 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 4. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of organizations were estimated 374 in the year 2003, 399 in the year 2005, 410 in the year 2010. 5. The total demand range, concerning the numbers of hospitalized patients, hospital bed, and organizations are estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-787 in the year 2005, 428-840 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 6. In the demand of developed country's level oncology nurses are OCN's level 1,495, AOCN's level 102 in the year 2003, OCN's level 1,613, AOCN's level 111 in the year 2005, OCN's level 1,879, AOCN's level 128 in the year 2010 in case of the United States, and in case of Canada, 765 in the year 2003, 826 in the year 2005, and 956 in the year 2010.