• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1155-1162
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• 2004

This research proposes a new risk analysis method in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The proposed risk analysis methods consists of four phases. First step, AHP model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Finally, Fuzzy theory suggests a risk management method for construction projects, which is using subjective knowledge of an expert and linguistic value, to analyze and quantify risk. The result of study is expected to improve the accuracy of risk analysis because three factors, such as probability, impact and exposure, for estimating membership function are introduced to quantify each risk factor. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2008년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

최근 국내외에서 도시재생사업이 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이러한 도시재생사업은 사업주체 및 이해관계자가 다양하고, 복잡하며, 대규모의 긴 생애주기를 가지고 있다. 또한 대부분 입체 복합공간 개발 형태의 메가프로젝트라는 특징을 나타내고 있다. 이러한 대규모의 도시재생사업은 사업수행과정에서 많은 위험요인들이 존재하며, 그와 더불어 효율적이고 지속적인 성과관리가 필요하다. 그러나 국내의 성과관리는 건설업의 특성을 반영하지 못하고 있으며, 위험과 연계된 연구는 미비하다. 그래서 본 연구는 효율적인 성과관리를 위한 위험과 연계된 성과측정지표를 도출하기 위한 기초연구로 맵핑(mapping)을 통해 성과측정을 위한 성과지표와 위험요인을 연계하는 방법을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.117-126
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• 2011

공공-민간 합동개발 형태의 사업방식으로 시행하는 민관합동형 PF(Project Financing)사업은 2001년 도입이후 급격한 양적 증가를 가져왔으나 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 심각한 침체국면을 맞이하게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 공공시설물 PF 사업의 실 사례를 바탕으로 리스크요인을 도출하고 프로젝트 진행 단계별로 리스크를 분류하여 분석하는 것이며, 단계별 리스크 요인의 위험도 및 중요도를 해당분야 실무자의 설문조사를 토대로 측정하고 리스크인자의 위험도를 산출하였다. 본 연구결과는 사업추진시 각 단계별 리스크인자를 인지하고, 리스크요인의 위험도에 따른 대응전략 수립 및 리스크 관리에 활용 되기를 기대한다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.665-676
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this paper proposes an effective and systematic methods of risk management in product development project. Methods: This paper first discusses what risk factors be considered during product development period and then presented a model for preventive risk management. For that, this paper proposes how to evaluate the risk factors and risk events, and how to select prevention action for managing risk factors effectively. For this process, this paper uses well-known quality tools such as House of Quality (HOQ) and Failure Mode and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) methods. Results: There is an inherent need for the development of robust risk management framework in order for product development projects to be successful. The identification and quantification of risk factors, risk events, and prevention actions can have significant effects on the success of a product development projects. Project managers can implement the proposed model to improve project success. Conclusion: The findings showed that this method would be effective for project managements in dealing with risk management issues in product development projects. This method presented would be an one of good guidelines for practitioners in the industry.

• 경영정보학연구
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.87-110
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• 2017

IT프로젝트 관리에 가장 중요한 요소 중 하나는 위험 관리이다. IT프로젝트 수행 중 발생할 수 있는 위험을 예측하고 대처하는 것이 프로젝트 성공 여부를 결정짓는 중요한 요소로 작용하기에, IT프로젝트 위험 요인은 학계와 업계에서 꾸준히 주목을 받는 주제이다. 이에 연구자들은 우선순위를 포함한 위험 요인 체크리스트 도출, 위험 요인들의 원인 관계 분석 및 프로젝트에 미치는 영향도 도출 등의 연구를 수행하였다. 그러나 위험 요인의 발생 확률과 영향도를 동시에 고려하는 위험 노출도의 관점에서 IT프로젝트 위험 요인을 체계적으로 분류한 연구는 미비하다. 본 연구는 문헌 연구 및 IT프로젝트 전문가 인터뷰를 바탕으로 IT프로젝트 위험 요인 53개를 도출하고, 도출된 위험 요인을 위험 노출도 관점에서 조사하였다. 나아가 프로젝트 관리자 140명의 설문을 통해 얻은 데이터로 군집분석을 실시해 4영역(HIHF, HILF, LIHF, LILF)으로 구분된 IT프로젝트 위험 요인 분류체계 프레임워크를 개발하였다. 또한 IT프로젝트를 프로젝트 성격 및 분야별로 위험 요인의 노출도 및 우선순위를 비교 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 IT프로젝트 관리자들의 효율적 위험 관리 전략 수립을 돕고 IT프로젝트 실패를 줄이는데 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 위험 요인의 발생 확률과 영향도를 동시에 고려했다는 측면에서 학문적인 의의를 가진다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.143-144
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• 2012

A number of construction projects tied to the concerns and decision-making is also very complicated. In addition, more than any other industry, is inherent in many risk factors. In the course of the construction project on risk factors that exist in the early stages of project risk factors to predict in advance and prepare a project by shortening the construction period and project cost as you can to maximize performance. In this study, I proposed risk management processes and how they are used in web-based schedule risk in the process of change management system, and between 3D CAD, 4D CAD taking into account the linkages, risk management strategy process in the BIM environment.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.15-25
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• 2017

The existence of material price volatility in construction projects puts forward substantial risks for all parties involved. Depending on the parties involved in the project, type of contracts, and state of the market various risk management strategies are practiced by contracting parties to manage project risks related to price volatility. Unfortunately, in many cases companies fail to select an adequate approach to better manage volatilities of material prices due to the lack of a decision support system to aid in the selection of an appropriate strategy based on the project characteristics. The aim of this study is to identify critical project factors and align them to documented strategies to manage price volatility based on an extensive literature review and industry interviews. This study found Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as the ideal strategy with respect to project duration; quantitative risk management methods with respect to the cost; and Price Adjustment Clauses (PAC) with respect to the risk allocation, as the top price volatility management strategies.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.191-209
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• 2020

Project logistics is becoming increasingly important in overseas plant projects. Efficient logistics risk management is needed to reduce construction period and reduce costs. However, Korean construction firms bid unconditionally without sufficient experience and analysis on overseas plants contract, companies are gradually losing profitability on projects due to not considering profitability. Despite the significant effects on the profitability of Korean construction companies, and although these companies still continue to bid on overseas plant projects, policies to manage project logistics risks for safe transport and compliance with the contracted building schedule in the long term is still lacking. Hence, this study investigates the risk factors related to project logistics and to analyze the effect of project logistics risk on overseas plant business performance. We conducted a survey of project-related workers. The results of the analysis are as follows: First, among the logistics risk factors, overseas platform business people recognize operational risk and financial risk factors, which have a positive effect directly on overseas plant performance. Second, the ability to manage project logistics risks can have a significant impact on the success or failure of overseas plants. Finally, if logistics risk factors are managed on the basis of the research results confirmed through empirical analysis, it is possible to carry out more efficient and effective management of the project, which implies that this will have a positive effect on overseas plant business performance.

• 산업공학
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.119-127
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• 2011

Most companies have been increasing temporary work projects to maximize the usage of their resources. They also have been developing the effective techniques for analyzing and managing the state of the projects. In order to monitor the state of a project in real-time and predict the project's future state more accurately, this paper suggests the Bayesian Network (BN) as a tool for discovering the causes of project risk and presenting the failure probability of the project. The proposed BN modeling method with consideration of the Earned Value Management (EVM) method shows how to induce the predictive and conditional probability of the risk occurrence in the future. The advantages of the suggested model are (1) that the cause of a project risk can be easily figured out via the BN, (2) that the future value of the project can be sufficiently increased by updating relevant components of the project, and (3) that more credible prediction can be made in the similar and future situation by using the data obtained in current analysis. A numerical example is also given.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.72-82
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• 2018

In this paper, we identify risk factors that are likely to occur during the lifecycle of a new product development (NPD) project from the literatures, and identify the three objectives or three constraints that will ultimately be achieved for project success in the ICT industry : performance (scope/quality), schedule (time), and cost. Firstly, we interviewed the project experts to classify the risk factors according that the final project objectives are changeable based on scope/quality, time and cost budget constraints. Secondly, the survey for pairwise comparisons between the risk factors was asked to the project managers and members who had ever actually participated in the NPD projects of ICT industry to determine the priority ranks on relative importance using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). The risk factors negatively affecting the goals of projects were analyzed by using the AHP respectively in four project stages during the life cycle of the project. The comparison of risk factors within each stage is a different approach unlike the literatures which have covered project's overall risk assessment. There is an advantage that risk management can be effectively performed with priorities according to each stage from the start to the end of the project. In other words, it is necessary to identify what risk factors will occur in each stage, and to have ideas at each stage with the priorities so that they can be mitigated and eliminated before actual occurrence. As a result, risks on scope & quality changes were found to be the most important considerations for initiative stage of NPD projects in the ICT industry, whereas in the final stage, risks on schedule (time) changes were the most important priorities. Among the ICT industry product categories, 'communication and broadcasting devices' and 'IT and communication based devices' generally have a high priority in terms of risks on scope & quality changes when initiating the project. At the closing stage of the project, however, considering that schedule (time) changeable risk is getting higher, these products tend to target at B2B market rather than B2C because the new products must be delivered and launched in time as customer firm required.