• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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Methodological Improvement for the Economic Assessment of Public R&D Programs

  • Hwang, Seogwon
    • STI Policy Review
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2011
  • Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.

시공단계를 고려한 대단면 정거장 터널 안정성 해석 (The stability analysis on large sectional tunnel station considering construction steps)

  • 강은구;김양운;안경철;한명식
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1062-1068
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    • 2009
  • Urban construction has numerous difficulties due to ground weakness and various complaints from third party, so it is not economically efficient and constructability is not favorable. Therefore, underground, which has good ground conditions, was used for construction field and facilities such as stations, and they are scaled up to enhance accommodation of facility limitation and function of stations. Large section tunnel station construction has numerous risk factors such as work boundary of excavation equipment, a relaxation of stress concentration, a safety plan of tunnel stability, and so on. Therefore, by using large section tunnel station stability analysis considering construction step, we expect to analyze the latent problem during construction, and to stabilize a future project plan of a large section structure design by using an auxiliary method and a support design.

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코드 커버리지 테스팅 기법의 금융권 차세대 프로젝트 적용사례 (Code coverage Testing in Next Generation Banking System Project)

  • 김희영;양상태
    • 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국IT서비스학회 2009년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2009
  • 대규모 금융권 차세대 프로젝트에서 테스트에 대한 중요성은 재무RISK 관점에서 뿐만 아니라 소프트웨어 품질향상을 위한 결함의 제거 관점에서도 그 의미가 크다. 대규모 차세대 프로젝트는 일반 프로젝트에 비하여 개발되는 소프트웨어의 양이 방대하고 개발참여인원도 일반적인 관리수준을 넘어 수작업에 의한 테스트만으로는 충분한 품질을 보장하지 못한다. 또한 테스트를 수행한 이후에도 지속적으로 변경이 발생하고 이를 반영하는 과정에서 많은 결함이 유입되는 현재의 SI 프로젝트 특성상 지속적인 테스트 및 반복적인 검증만이 소프트웨어의 품질을 보장할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 code coverage testing기법을 활용하여 동적 테스트 수행결과를 log로 도출하고, log 분석 결과를 통해 소프트웨어 품질의 향상을 기대할 수 있는 방안을 제시한다.

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기술성숙도 측정을 통한 ACTD 과제 전이 결정에 관한 연구 (Transition of ACTD by Measuring the Technology Readiness Level)

  • 배윤호;최석철;문희승
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.60-69
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    • 2009
  • Recently, request far application of advanced commercial technology to the defense acquisition process, to reduce the budget and shorten development time, has been increased. To accomplish these goals, the Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration(ACTD) is used for the defense acquisition process in Korea. And User Utility Assessment is tested to make a decision for transition to acquisition process. But this process does not include measurement of technology maturity and impacts of interface and interaction among the technologies. In this research, we propose the needs of measurement of TRL and IRL and application of SRL to reduce the risk during development phase, to understand the relations of technologies, and to fulfill the requirement far transition of the ACTD project to system development and demonstration process.

문화(文化)콘텐츠기업(企業) 가치평가(價値評價)를 위한 할인율(割引率) 결정(決定)에 관한 연구(硏究) (A Study on Discount/Capitalization Rates for Valution of Culture Content Enterprises)

  • 김인철;주형근
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.115-148
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    • 2005
  • This study is intended to suggest a more reasonable and practical method of estimating discount & capitalization rate for valuation of closely-held culture content business, that is, to modify the Buildup Summation Model(which is recommended for the closely-held business by the NACVA) by adopting the weighted ratings in the CT Project Investment Evaluation of the Korea Culture Contents Association to risk factors of the Buildup Summation Model. This method is ease to apply for closely-held culture content business and has advantages in applying the weighted rates based on the characteristics of respective culture contents. And it can make up for the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) which shows generally low discount rates.

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한국의 소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트 위험 관리 현황 (The Present Condition of Risk Management for Software Development Project in Korea.)

  • 류나정;고석하
    • 한국산업정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국산업정보학회 2003년도 추계공동학술대회
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    • pp.489-503
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    • 2003
  • 잘못되거나 불확실한 결과가 예상되는 프로젝트를 계속 지속하는 행위는 어떠한 분야의 프로젝트에서도 발견 할 수 있는 보편적인 현상이다. 그러나 소프트웨어 개발 분야는 그러한 어떠한 분야보다도 이 문제에 더 민감하며 그 파급효과 또한 크다. 그 이유는 소프트웨어 그 자체가 형태를 가지고 있지 않아 프로젝트 진행 도중에는 그 완성도를 예측하기가 무척 어렵기 때문이다. 또한 소프트웨어는 프로젝트범위가 자주 변동되기 때문에 통제와 관리에 어려움이 많다. 이런 이유로 소프트웨어 개발 생명주기의 각 단계에서 발생하는 위험 요소들을 찾아 그 위험 요소들이 발생했을 때 프로젝트에 미치는 영향정도 파악하여 그 해당위험 요소에 대응하는 방안들을 모색하는 것이 피해를 줄이기 위해 가장 최선의 방법이다. 본 논문에서는 위에서 거론된 소프트웨어 위험 관리에 대한 관련 문헌을 조사, 검토하고 설문을 통해 조사한 실무자들의 경험을 바탕으로 위험에 대한 인식과 대응 반응을 파악하고 연구하고자 한다. 소프트웨어 프로젝트 계획 단계에서 위험 요소가 추후 발생할 것을 예측하여 실제로 위험 요소가 발현했을 때, 적극적으로 대처 할 수 있는 방법을 찾아 해당 위험이 주는 영향을 최소화 할 수 있는 방법을 찾고자 한다.

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지반굴착과 주변 구조물 손상평가 - 기본개념 (Excavation and Building Damage Assessment - Fundamentals)

  • 유충식
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2002년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.263-270
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    • 2002
  • During deep excavation, changes in the state of stress in the ground mass around the excavation and subsequent ground losses inevitably occur. These changes in the stress and ground losses are reflected on surrounding ground in the form of ground movements, which eventually Impose strains onto nearby structures through translation, rotation, distortion, and possibly damage. A substantial portion of the cost of deep excavations in urban environments is, therefore, devoted to prevent ground movements. Prediction of ground movements and assessment of the risk of damage to adjacent structures has become an essential part of the planning, design, and construction of a deep excavation project in the urban environments. This paper presents excavation-induced ground movement characteristics as well as important issues related to excavation-induced building damage assessment.

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공기지연요소분석을 이용한 회귀분석 기반 초고층 내부공사의 생산성 예측 (Regression Technique-based Productivity Estimation conducting Construction Delay Factor Analysis on Interior Works in High-rise Building Construction)

  • 김현미;김태형;신영근;김영석;한승우
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2011년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 1부
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    • pp.191-192
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    • 2011
  • The construction projects contain a lot of variables and risk affecting productivity. The duration of the project must be recognized important as for quality, unit cost and safety. There is need for improving work efficiency by investigating relationship of works to prevent delay. This study focuses on analysing the delay factors of steel staircase system to suggest regression model that enables construction productivity estimation. The position of the observers and construction delay factors were expressed by the independent variable of the regression model and productivity was expressed by a dependent variable. This paper suggests quantitative productivity and it is expected that will be helpful estimating application in construction new technologies.

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이동식 크레인의 접지설계 시스템 (Mobile Crane Ground-Fixing System)

  • 호종관;서종민;김선국
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제7권6호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2007
  • A mobile crane has been more frequently used to deal with the increased capital-intensive projects in line with the economic growth, but the operation is still heavily dependent on personal experience in the past, resulting in severe overturn accidents that cause the loss of lives and damage to the properties. A crane shall be installed in a systematic manner that proved to be safe in engineering aspect, and should the installation and operation be blindly dependent on experience alone, it would apparently cause a great risk. Particularly the mobile crane, among others, frequently causes a severe overturn accident due to poor ground-fixing device. The study therefore focused on fixing system of mobile crane and the outcome is highly expected to make a great commitment to selecting the optimal type of crane for the project as well as to securing the safety during construction.

시스템다이내믹스와 복합 리얼옵션 기반 신·재생에너지 기술가치평가 (On Renewable Energy Technology Valuation Using System Dynamics and Compound Real Options)

  • 전찬웅;신준석
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2014
  • The transition from fossil to renewable energy is inevitable due to fossil depletion. So, Renewable energy is very important for energy security and economic growth although it's R&D is long-term and high risky project. We propose new valuation method which combined system dynamics and compound real option method for long-term and high risk projects such as renewable energy. This method can show dynamic valuation results for the complex causal interaction and be easy for Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate volatility. And it can reflect the value of flexible decision for uncertainty. We applied the empirical analysis for Korea's photovoltaic industry by using this method. As results by empirical analysis, photovoltaic's R&D has high valuation using this method compared by traditional valuation methods such as DCF.