• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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Preliminary Study on Market Risk Prediction Model for International Construction using Fractal Analysis

  • Moon, Seonghyeon;Kim, Du Yon;Chi, Seokho
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.463-467
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    • 2015
  • Mega-shock means a sporadic event such as the earning shock, which occurred by sudden market changes, and it can cause serious problems of profit loss of international construction projects. Therefore, the early response and prevention by analyzing and predicting the Mega-shock is critical for successful project delivery. This research is preliminary study to develop a prediction model that supports market condition analysis and Mega-shock forecasting. To avoid disadvantages of classic statistical approaches that assume the market factors are linear and independent and thus have limitations to explain complex interrelationship among a range of international market factors, the research team explored the Fractal Theory that can explain self-similarity and recursiveness of construction market changes. The research first found out correlation of the major market factors by statistically analyzing time-series data. The research then conducted a base of the Fractal analysis to distinguish features of fractal from data. The outcome will have potential to contribute to building up a foundation of the early shock warning system for the strategic international project management.

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Global Collaboration During Front End Planning of Capital Projects

  • Gibson, G. Edward Jr.
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.15-18
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    • 2015
  • Front end planning is arguably the most impactful process in the successful delivery of capital projects. Organizations expend substantial effort in this planning process, intending to minimize risk and promote project success. This process has been well documented, including critical technical components, as well as the importance of team collaborative components. As organizations continue to pursue large projects with multi-national participation from sponsors, designers, contractors and suppliers, the importance of collaboration on a global scale during front end planning becomes more important, not less. This paper will outline research performed over the past two decades giving the basic components of the process and the value of global collaboration. It will provide guidance to project participants in pursuing successful planning.

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초고층 개발사업 추진을 위한 단계별 리스크 요인의 특성 분석 (An Analysis on the Characteristics of Each Phase's Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project)

  • 전영준;조주현
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 초고층 개발사업의 각 단계별 리스크 요인을 정확하게 도출하고, 그 중요도의 산출 및 주요 특성을 분석하였으며, 사업타당성의 수익과 비용측면에서의 실증적 분석을 통하여, 각 단계별 리스크를 사전에 저감하고 초고층 개발사업이 사업 초기 단계에 머물러 있거나 사업 자체가 무산되는 것을 방지하는데 의의가 있다. 초고층 개발사업 각 단계 중 사업사전평가단계가 초고층 개발사업의 성패를 좌우하는 가장 중요한 것으로 나타났으며, 이와 같은 분석 결과는 사업사전평가단계에서의 시장수요 공급 및 소비자의 선호도에 대한 철저한 예측과 사업대상 부지가 위치한 지역의 기반시설 및 교통시설 여부, 그리고 경쟁시설이 과다하여 유사상품과의 공급경쟁은 없는지 등을 면밀히 검토하여 사업계획을 수립하고 금융계획을 통하여 자금조달 계획을 수립하는 것이 중요함을 시사하고 있다. 전문 직군별로는 시행자, CM사, 설계사, 시공사, 운영 유지관리회사 및 공공기관은 사업사전평가단계를, 금융기관 및 컨설팅사는 개발단계를 가장 중요하게 판단하고 있다. 사업분야별로는 전체 리스크 요인 중에서 기술 및 재무 분야가 가장 중요하고, 상위 10개 리스크 요인 중에서는 사회문화 및 설계가 가장 중요한 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 초고층 개발사업만의 두드러진 특성이라 할 수 있다. 사업타당성 분석 시 수익하락의 리스크 요인이 전 단계에 걸쳐 가장 중요하게 분석되었으며, 도출된 리스크는 개발준비단계에서는 비용증가를 초래하며, 관리 운영단계에서는 수익하락 및 비용증가를 초래하는 특징이 있다. 이러한 특징은 초고층 개발사업 추진에 있어서 분양가 임대료 객실/입장요금의 수익이 하락하지 않도록 사업 전반에 걸쳐 철저히 계획 관리해야하고, 특히 개발단계에서는 기반시설 설치비용의 증가, 관리 운영단계에서는 운영 유지보수 비용이 증가하지 않도록 철저한 관리와 함께, 가동률이 하락하지 않는 관리가 필요함을 시사하고 있다.

공공부문 IS 개발 프로젝트 손실요인에 대한 현장연구: 프로젝트 관리를 중심으로 (A Field Study on the Loss Factors of IS Development Project in the Public Sector: Perspectives of Project Management)

  • 장성봉
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.65-84
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    • 2004
  • This research analyzes the causes of delay and resulting additional expenses on the IS project in the public sector, and then proposes some solutions to the problem. Through a field study, the research found that the causes include employer's attitude, the leadership and risk management ability of the project manager, and qualifications of project members. In order to avoid those problems, the project manager should secure various communication channels and good relationship between the employee and the contractor.

활동기준예방에 의한 프로젝트 품질코스트 최소화 (Minimizing Project Quality Costs by Activity-Based Prevention)

  • 김종열;강창욱;황인극
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2011
  • Traditional quality control for manufacturing or service sector is not suitable for the quality control of a project as the project is one-time task constrained by time, cost, and quality. To meet the internal and external customers' requirements, quality costs approach to the project will be effective. Hence, we propose PONC (price of nonconformance) estimation procedure and a mathematical model, which are focused on activity-based prevention in the execution step and warranty step of EPLC (extended project life cycle). This procedure and model will help project manager develop preventive action plan for project quality costs minimization from nonconformance risk activities and PONC estimates information.

심뇌혈관질환 고위험군의 교육정보센터 영양실습 교육프로그램 효과 (Effects of Nutritional Education Practice Program for Cardiocerebrovascular High-risk Group at the Education Information Center)

  • 남행미;우승희;조영지;최윤정;백수연;윤소연;이진영;이중정;이혜진
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.580-591
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    • 2011
  • This research was performed to investigate the effects of NEP (Nutritional Education Practice) program developed by KHyDDI (Korea Hypertension Diabetes Daegu Initiative) for hypertension and diabetes patients. The subjects were 116 patients (hypertension 70, diabetes 46) who had completed basic education program at the education information center and four-session program was implemented for them. Nutrient intake was analyzed and compared before and after the program by 24-hr recall method and evaluate weight, waist circumference, body fat, blood pressure and eating habits in terms of nutrition knowledge, eating behavior, salty taste assessment. The improved results after the program were observed in weight, waist circumference, body fat ratio, blood pressure, slightly salty taste in salty taste assessment, nutrition knowledge, eating behavior, sodium, energy, carbohydrate and protein intake ratio to total energy (p < 0.001). Therefore, this program is effective in the improvement of weight, waist circumference and eating behavior, and the continued management would lead to the prevention of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in the community.

Uncertainty Factors affecting Bid Price from Pre-bid Clarification Document of Transport Construction Projects

  • Jang, YeEun;Kim, HaYoung;Yi, June-Seong;Lee, Bum-Sik
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.238-244
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    • 2022
  • Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

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ASP Outsourcing 위험의 효율적인 통제를 위한 실물옵션 적용 가능성에 대한 연구 (An Empirical Study on the Control Mechanism of ASP Outsourcing Risks using Real Option Approach)

  • 남승현;양희동
    • 한국산업정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국산업정보학회 2008년도 추계 공동 국제학술대회
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    • pp.365-384
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    • 2008
  • Many studies on ASP outsourcing area have focused on the Critical Success Factors(CSFs) of ASP outsourcing projects or on the service quality of ASP Service. But these studies have limitations to explain how to succeed in doing ASP outsourcing project. The objective of this research is to overcome this limitation by using the concept of "IT Risk" in Outsourcing. The effective control of the risks-caused during the IS outsourcing process-gives (ASP service using) users a powerful tool to minimize the risks and thus maximizes the possibility of ASP outsourcing project success. In order to perform this objective, this research set up the research model which is composed of three concepts. The three concepts are 1. Undesirable Outcomes(:UO) as IT outsourcing Risks, 2. The Source of Risks(:SOR) influencing the UO, and 3. the intention to get/execute Real Option Portfolio to control the risk level of SORs and UOs. This research has some important and interesting implications on the ASP outsourcing area. First, this research classifies the risk factors as three concepts and finds the interactions among them. Second, Using Real Option portfolio can control the risks effectively occurred during outsourcing projects. Third, Vendors(ASP service providers) can offer users IN TIME the options which can minimize the occurrence of risks.

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위험도 분석기법에 의한 영동선 터널의 굴착공법 결정사례 (Determination of the Construction Method for Young Dong Tunnel by Risk Assessment)

  • 김용일;;윤영훈;조상국
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2002
  • 영동터널의 굴착공법은 다음과 같은 세밀한 위험도 분석기법을 통하여 결정되었다. 본 논문에서는 실드 TBM 과 같은 형태의 기계화 굴착공법과 천공 및 발파에 의한 굴착공법에 따른 공사중 특정의 위험도를 분석 하였다. 공사 민감도 및 현장 경험등의 기타 중요인자를 고려한 위험도 분석결과에 따라 본 현장여건을 고려하면 천공 및 발파공법이 영동선 터널의 굴착공법으로 가장 적합하다고 제안 되었다.

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위험도 분석기법에 의한 영동선 터널의 굴착공법 결정사례 (Determination of the Construction Method for the Young Dong Tunnel by Risk Assessment)

  • Kim, Yong-Il;S. R. Hencher;Yoon, Young-Hoon;Cho, Sang-Kook
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.200-206
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    • 2002
  • 영동터널의 굴착골법은 다음과 같은 세밀한 위험도 분석기법을 통하여 결정되었다. 본 논문에서는 실드 TBM과 같은 형태의 기계화 굴착공법과 천공 및 발파에 의한 굴착공법에 따른 공사중 특정의 위험도를 분석하였다. 공사 민감도 및 현장 경험등의 기타 중요 인자를 고려한 위험도 분석결과에 따라 본 현장여건을 고려하면 천공 및 발파공법이 영동선 터널의 굴착공법으로 가장 적합하다고 제안되었다.

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