• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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해외 대형 프로젝트의 복잡성, 위험인지 및 기회주의의 관계: 계약적 지배구조의 조절효과 (Relations of Complexity, Risk Perception and Opportunism on Overseas Mega-Project: Modulating Effect of Contractual Governance)

  • 김택규;정헌주
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제45권5호
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 2020
  • The construction industry can be described as one of the most volatile industry depending on the situation. As such, a contractor, who is usually positioned to take all kinds of risk, may frequently require to form a strategic partnership for better execution of a project. In this study, we are going to review act or behavior that may happen among such partnership. For such review, a survey targeted at domestic construction companies has been conducted on their thoughts as regards opportunism, risk perception, and the contractual governance between partners. The analysis result of structural equation and regression has indicated that there exists a positive effect on the opportunistic behavior from the risk perception, a moderating effect on contractual governance between the performance risk and opportunism, whereas no such moderating effect on the same between relational risk and the opportunism. The output of this study may assist various domestic individuals who wish to participate large scaled overseas projects.

기술개발 투자안의 최적 포트폴리오 구성에 관한 연구

  • 이현정;이정동;김태유
    • 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국기술혁신학회 2000년도 추계 학술대회(The 2000 Autumn Conference of korea Technology Inovation Society)(한국기술혁신학회)
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    • pp.259-277
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we suggest theoretical grounds on the problem of R&D portfolio with different option premiums utilizing the Real Options Model, which has received intensified attention as the method of assessment of R&D project with high risk. Even though there have been many studies focused on the evaluation of option value of single project from technology valuation's perspective. there are few study on the portfolio of multiple technology investment by option value using. This paper bears practical importance by showing simple examples with the option value of investment alternatives and the valuation of related risk, the construction of optimum portfolio in technology investment alternatives.

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Enhancement of VECTOR Method by Adapting OCTAVE for Risk Analysis in Legacy System Migration

  • Hakemi, Aida;Jeong, Seung Ryul;Ghani, Imran;Sanaei, Mojtaba Ghanaatpisheh
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.2118-2138
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    • 2014
  • Risks are involved in all phases of the software life cycle, and due to these risks, software can face various problems that can cause different negative outcomes and sometimes, in extreme cases, the failure of the software. Most of these risks lie in the legacy software migration process. These risks can create many problems, and in the worst case they can lead to the failure of the migration project. This paper explores different types of risk analysis methods such as CRAMM, CORAS, OCTAVE and VECTOR. After comparing these methods, the two suitable methods were chosen, namely, OCTAVE and VECTOR. Based on the use of these two methods, the project suggests an enhanced EOV method for risk analysis in the migration of legacy software.

국내 대형건설회사의 책임형 건설사업관리 도입 현황 분석 (A Current Status Study on the Introduction of CM at Risk on the Domestic Major Construction Company)

  • 유승규;김재준
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 학계
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    • pp.5-8
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    • 2009
  • This paper investigated the qualitative introduction status of domestic major construction company. And that focused on a point of suggestions about CM at Risk introduction. The survey analysis showed that three importan suggestions. First, the biggest obstacles factors to CM at Risk introduction that related laws is lagging amendment. Second, we have to improve the available hands ability in domestic major construction company. And last, we have to do that using uncomplicated design and standard design form. Consequently, environmen analysis for the introduction and example project is urgently required.

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PROBABILISTIC MEASUREMENT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL COST ESTIMATES

  • Seokyon Hwang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.488-493
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    • 2013
  • Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

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터널 건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구 (Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction Project)

  • 정승아;안성진
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.363-364
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    • 2023
  • The tunnel construction projects is demanded more efficient risk management measures and loss forecasts to prepare for risk losses from an increase in the trend of tunnel construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual tunnel construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past loss record of tunnel construction projects.

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VERT를 이용한 위험 분석 사례연구 (Case study of risk analysis using VERT)

  • 안병찬;이정구
    • 경영과학
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.77-95
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    • 1995
  • This paper shows the case study of risk analysis in an weapon system research and development project. For risk analysis, an advanced stochastic networking technique-VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) is used. Assumptions for activities of network diagram and conversion methods from PERT ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to VERT are discussed. Also, simulation result is presented and discussed.

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낙후지역 주거환경개선사업 타당성분석 평가모델 연구 - 공공(公共) 시행사업을 중심으로 - (A Study on the Feasibility analysis model for Housing Environment Improvement Project of Depressed region - Focused on the project by the public sector -)

  • 최정민;최찬환
    • 한국농촌건축학회논문집
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to set and analyze the standard model for prioritizing and deciding to take part in housing environment improvement project in the perspective of the public sector. The results of this study were as follows. The location competitiveness, potential demand, marketability and competitive price, etc were selected by assessment indicators. And Various indicators, including of the size of the area, public transportation, accessibility, convenience of living and the influx of the population, were used by weights indexes. The profit of local residents and the public promoter, variability of earnings, sensitivity analysis and the ratio of money in reserve, etc were also established as detailed indexes for the profitability and business risk analysis. To analyze the cash flow of the project process and review the necessary capital in advance, the payback, total working expenses, gearing ratio and sensitivity of a risk, etc were also set as additional detailed indexes. Lastly, considering it is quasi-public projects, the measure to protect tenants, necessity need of redevelopment and local government's will were additionally used by indexes. And Points were distributed on the importance of each index and scored out of 100. It will allow for the public project promoter to decide rationally whether to come in on the project. The public project promoter like the Korea Land and Housing Corporation will be able to make use of various indexes are based on this study to make decision whether joining the housing environment improvement project in depressed region.

감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스의 유용성 (Usability of Project Finance with Sinking Fund)

  • 한상준
    • 국제지역연구
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.369-392
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    • 2011
  • 순수한 의미의 프로젝트 파이낸스는 일반적으로 프로젝트의 사업성만을 담보로 차입이 이루어진다. 그래서 원금상환에 대한 채무불이행 위험이 높다. 이러한 위험을 해소하기 위하여 감채기금의 개념을 도입한 것이 감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스이다. 이것은 프로젝트 이외의 담보나 보증이 없이도 사업성만을 담보로 감채기금을 이용해 원금을 확보할 수 있는 금융기법이다. 본 논문은 일반적 프로젝트 파이낸스에 대한 감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스의 경제적 효율성을 비교하고 비교우위 조건을 도출하여 분석하였다. 특히 법인세 절감효과를 통해서 살펴보았다. 감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스가 적용되기 위해서는 10년 이상인 장기 프로젝트일 경우에 바람직하다. 복리구조에 의해 원금상환 자금이 형성되는 감채기금은 장기일수록 그 크기와 금융비용이 현실화되기 때문이다. 또한, 연기금이 장기적으로 안정적인 투자수익을 확보하면서 운용되어야 한다는 점에 비추어 볼 때 감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스의 자금조달 원천이 될 수 있을 것이다.

민간투자사업의 위험가치 평가 - 임대형 민간투자사업(BTL)의 위험가치 평가 제도를 중심으로 - (The Evaluation of Value at Risk in Build Transfer Lease Project)

  • 최석준;김상신
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제10권10호
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    • pp.2907-2916
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    • 2009
  • 민간투자사업은 1990년대 이후 본격화되어 주요 교통시설을 중심으로 진행되어 왔으며 2005년 이후에는 장기간 서비스를 제공하고 임대료 방식으로 사업자에게 대가를 지급하는 BTL 방식의 사업이 도입되어 학교, 군 주거시설, 하수관거 등 다양한 분야의 시설 및 서비스가 제공되고 있다. 정부 재정사업과 차별화되는 민자사업에 대해서 관련된 위험을 도출하고 그 가치를 평가, 위험 발생을 최소화하려는 제도적 노력은 부진한 편이며 특히 장기간 서비스 계약을 통해 이루어지는 BTL 사업의 경우 위험가치 평가 제도의 도입이 시급한 실정이다. 본 연구는 민자사업 성공의 주요 원인으로 알려진 영국 등의 민자사업 위험가치 평가제도를 비교 분석하고 국내 BTL 사업의 실제 사례에 대해 위험가치를 반영한 PSC(Public Sector Comparator)를 구축, 분석하였다.