• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project risk

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Preliminary Study on Market Risk Prediction Model for International Construction using Fractal Analysis

  • Moon, Seonghyeon;Kim, Du Yon;Chi, Seokho
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.463-467
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    • 2015
  • Mega-shock means a sporadic event such as the earning shock, which occurred by sudden market changes, and it can cause serious problems of profit loss of international construction projects. Therefore, the early response and prevention by analyzing and predicting the Mega-shock is critical for successful project delivery. This research is preliminary study to develop a prediction model that supports market condition analysis and Mega-shock forecasting. To avoid disadvantages of classic statistical approaches that assume the market factors are linear and independent and thus have limitations to explain complex interrelationship among a range of international market factors, the research team explored the Fractal Theory that can explain self-similarity and recursiveness of construction market changes. The research first found out correlation of the major market factors by statistically analyzing time-series data. The research then conducted a base of the Fractal analysis to distinguish features of fractal from data. The outcome will have potential to contribute to building up a foundation of the early shock warning system for the strategic international project management.

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Global Collaboration During Front End Planning of Capital Projects

  • Gibson, G. Edward Jr.
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.15-18
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    • 2015
  • Front end planning is arguably the most impactful process in the successful delivery of capital projects. Organizations expend substantial effort in this planning process, intending to minimize risk and promote project success. This process has been well documented, including critical technical components, as well as the importance of team collaborative components. As organizations continue to pursue large projects with multi-national participation from sponsors, designers, contractors and suppliers, the importance of collaboration on a global scale during front end planning becomes more important, not less. This paper will outline research performed over the past two decades giving the basic components of the process and the value of global collaboration. It will provide guidance to project participants in pursuing successful planning.

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An Analysis on the Characteristics of Each Phase's Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project (초고층 개발사업 추진을 위한 단계별 리스크 요인의 특성 분석)

  • Chun, Young-Jun;Cho, Joo-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2016
  • The 106 buildings of 200 meters' height or greater were completed around the world in 2015 (CTBUH, The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat). They beat every previous year on record, including the previous record high of 99 completions in 2014. This brings the total number of 200-meter-plus buildings in the world to 1,040, exceeding 1,000 for the first time in history and marking a 392% increase from the year 2000, when only 265 existed. South Korea recorded three completions during 2015 - improving slightly over 2014, in which it had one. This study focused on the fact that high-rise building development project risks have not reduced in Korea in spite of numerous studies and measures. And it attempted to examine whether existing studies and measures have been presented on the basis of the accurate analysis of existing studies and measures and classify and analyze the characteristics of each phase' s risk factors in the hope that its results would be one reference point as to the measure to prevent high-rise building development project risks in the future. A high-rise building development project is the high risk project as compared with the low-rise project. Because a high-rise development project takes long and is very sensitive to the changing environment. Therefore, in order to succeed the project it becomes necessary to effectively manage the risk involved in the process of the high-rise building development project. The result of this study can be used as the guideline to make the risk management system for the high-rise development project.

A Field Study on the Loss Factors of IS Development Project in the Public Sector: Perspectives of Project Management (공공부문 IS 개발 프로젝트 손실요인에 대한 현장연구: 프로젝트 관리를 중심으로)

  • Jang, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.65-84
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    • 2004
  • This research analyzes the causes of delay and resulting additional expenses on the IS project in the public sector, and then proposes some solutions to the problem. Through a field study, the research found that the causes include employer's attitude, the leadership and risk management ability of the project manager, and qualifications of project members. In order to avoid those problems, the project manager should secure various communication channels and good relationship between the employee and the contractor.

Minimizing Project Quality Costs by Activity-Based Prevention (활동기준예방에 의한 프로젝트 품질코스트 최소화)

  • Kim, Jong-Yul;Kang, Chang-Wook;Hwang, In-Keuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2011
  • Traditional quality control for manufacturing or service sector is not suitable for the quality control of a project as the project is one-time task constrained by time, cost, and quality. To meet the internal and external customers' requirements, quality costs approach to the project will be effective. Hence, we propose PONC (price of nonconformance) estimation procedure and a mathematical model, which are focused on activity-based prevention in the execution step and warranty step of EPLC (extended project life cycle). This procedure and model will help project manager develop preventive action plan for project quality costs minimization from nonconformance risk activities and PONC estimates information.

Effects of Nutritional Education Practice Program for Cardiocerebrovascular High-risk Group at the Education Information Center (심뇌혈관질환 고위험군의 교육정보센터 영양실습 교육프로그램 효과)

  • Nam, Hang-Me;Woo, Seung-Hee;Cho, Young-Ji;Choi, Yun-Jung;Back, Su-Yeon;Yoon, So-Yeon;Lee, Jin-Young;Lee, Jung-Jeung;Lee, Hye-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.580-591
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    • 2011
  • This research was performed to investigate the effects of NEP (Nutritional Education Practice) program developed by KHyDDI (Korea Hypertension Diabetes Daegu Initiative) for hypertension and diabetes patients. The subjects were 116 patients (hypertension 70, diabetes 46) who had completed basic education program at the education information center and four-session program was implemented for them. Nutrient intake was analyzed and compared before and after the program by 24-hr recall method and evaluate weight, waist circumference, body fat, blood pressure and eating habits in terms of nutrition knowledge, eating behavior, salty taste assessment. The improved results after the program were observed in weight, waist circumference, body fat ratio, blood pressure, slightly salty taste in salty taste assessment, nutrition knowledge, eating behavior, sodium, energy, carbohydrate and protein intake ratio to total energy (p < 0.001). Therefore, this program is effective in the improvement of weight, waist circumference and eating behavior, and the continued management would lead to the prevention of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in the community.

Uncertainty Factors affecting Bid Price from Pre-bid Clarification Document of Transport Construction Projects

  • Jang, YeEun;Kim, HaYoung;Yi, June-Seong;Lee, Bum-Sik
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.238-244
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    • 2022
  • Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

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An Empirical Study on the Control Mechanism of ASP Outsourcing Risks using Real Option Approach (ASP Outsourcing 위험의 효율적인 통제를 위한 실물옵션 적용 가능성에 대한 연구)

  • Nam, Seung-Hyeon;Yang, Hui-Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.365-384
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    • 2008
  • Many studies on ASP outsourcing area have focused on the Critical Success Factors(CSFs) of ASP outsourcing projects or on the service quality of ASP Service. But these studies have limitations to explain how to succeed in doing ASP outsourcing project. The objective of this research is to overcome this limitation by using the concept of "IT Risk" in Outsourcing. The effective control of the risks-caused during the IS outsourcing process-gives (ASP service using) users a powerful tool to minimize the risks and thus maximizes the possibility of ASP outsourcing project success. In order to perform this objective, this research set up the research model which is composed of three concepts. The three concepts are 1. Undesirable Outcomes(:UO) as IT outsourcing Risks, 2. The Source of Risks(:SOR) influencing the UO, and 3. the intention to get/execute Real Option Portfolio to control the risk level of SORs and UOs. This research has some important and interesting implications on the ASP outsourcing area. First, this research classifies the risk factors as three concepts and finds the interactions among them. Second, Using Real Option portfolio can control the risks effectively occurred during outsourcing projects. Third, Vendors(ASP service providers) can offer users IN TIME the options which can minimize the occurrence of risks.

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Determination of the Construction Method for Young Dong Tunnel by Risk Assessment (위험도 분석기법에 의한 영동선 터널의 굴착공법 결정사례)

  • Kim, Yong-Il;Hencher, S.R.;Yoon, Young-Hoon;Cho, Sang-Kook
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2002
  • The construction method for Young Dong Tunnel has been chosen following detailed risk assessment. In this paper, the specific risks to the project programme, associated with adopting either mechanical excavation in the form of a shielded TBM, or drill and blast excavation methods, are assessed. From the risk assessment results, and taking other important factors into account, such as project sensitivity and local experience, the recommendation is made that the relatively low risk drill-and-blast method is the most appropriate for construction of Young Dong Tunnel.

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Determination of the Construction Method for the Young Dong Tunnel by Risk Assessment (위험도 분석기법에 의한 영동선 터널의 굴착공법 결정사례)

  • Kim, Yong-Il;S. R. Hencher;Yoon, Young-Hoon;Cho, Sang-Kook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.200-206
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    • 2002
  • The construction method for the Young Dong Tunnel has been chosen following detailed risk assessment. In this paper, the specific risks to the project programme, associated with adopting either mechanical excavation in the form of a shielded TBM, or drill and blast excavation methods, are assessed. From the risk assessment results, and taking other important factors into account, such as project sensitivity and local experience, the recommendation is made that the relatively low risk drill-and-blast method is the most appropriate for construction of the Young Dong tunnel.

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