• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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Relations of Complexity, Risk Perception and Opportunism on Overseas Mega-Project: Modulating Effect of Contractual Governance (해외 대형 프로젝트의 복잡성, 위험인지 및 기회주의의 관계: 계약적 지배구조의 조절효과)

  • Teck-Kyu Kim;Hun-Joo Jung
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • 제45권5호
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 2020
  • The construction industry can be described as one of the most volatile industry depending on the situation. As such, a contractor, who is usually positioned to take all kinds of risk, may frequently require to form a strategic partnership for better execution of a project. In this study, we are going to review act or behavior that may happen among such partnership. For such review, a survey targeted at domestic construction companies has been conducted on their thoughts as regards opportunism, risk perception, and the contractual governance between partners. The analysis result of structural equation and regression has indicated that there exists a positive effect on the opportunistic behavior from the risk perception, a moderating effect on contractual governance between the performance risk and opportunism, whereas no such moderating effect on the same between relational risk and the opportunism. The output of this study may assist various domestic individuals who wish to participate large scaled overseas projects.

기술개발 투자안의 최적 포트폴리오 구성에 관한 연구

  • 이현정;이정동;김태유
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 한국기술혁신학회 2000년도 추계 학술대회(The 2000 Autumn Conference of korea Technology Inovation Society)(한국기술혁신학회)
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    • pp.259-277
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we suggest theoretical grounds on the problem of R&D portfolio with different option premiums utilizing the Real Options Model, which has received intensified attention as the method of assessment of R&D project with high risk. Even though there have been many studies focused on the evaluation of option value of single project from technology valuation's perspective. there are few study on the portfolio of multiple technology investment by option value using. This paper bears practical importance by showing simple examples with the option value of investment alternatives and the valuation of related risk, the construction of optimum portfolio in technology investment alternatives.

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Enhancement of VECTOR Method by Adapting OCTAVE for Risk Analysis in Legacy System Migration

  • Hakemi, Aida;Jeong, Seung Ryul;Ghani, Imran;Sanaei, Mojtaba Ghanaatpisheh
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.2118-2138
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    • 2014
  • Risks are involved in all phases of the software life cycle, and due to these risks, software can face various problems that can cause different negative outcomes and sometimes, in extreme cases, the failure of the software. Most of these risks lie in the legacy software migration process. These risks can create many problems, and in the worst case they can lead to the failure of the migration project. This paper explores different types of risk analysis methods such as CRAMM, CORAS, OCTAVE and VECTOR. After comparing these methods, the two suitable methods were chosen, namely, OCTAVE and VECTOR. Based on the use of these two methods, the project suggests an enhanced EOV method for risk analysis in the migration of legacy software.

A Current Status Study on the Introduction of CM at Risk on the Domestic Major Construction Company (국내 대형건설회사의 책임형 건설사업관리 도입 현황 분석)

  • Yoo, Seung-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 학계
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    • pp.5-8
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    • 2009
  • This paper investigated the qualitative introduction status of domestic major construction company. And that focused on a point of suggestions about CM at Risk introduction. The survey analysis showed that three importan suggestions. First, the biggest obstacles factors to CM at Risk introduction that related laws is lagging amendment. Second, we have to improve the available hands ability in domestic major construction company. And last, we have to do that using uncomplicated design and standard design form. Consequently, environmen analysis for the introduction and example project is urgently required.

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PROBABILISTIC MEASUREMENT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL COST ESTIMATES

  • Seokyon Hwang
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.488-493
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    • 2013
  • Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

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Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction Project (터널 건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Seung-A;Ahn, Sungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.363-364
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    • 2023
  • The tunnel construction projects is demanded more efficient risk management measures and loss forecasts to prepare for risk losses from an increase in the trend of tunnel construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual tunnel construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past loss record of tunnel construction projects.

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Case study of risk analysis using VERT (VERT를 이용한 위험 분석 사례연구)

  • 안병찬;이정구
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.77-95
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    • 1995
  • This paper shows the case study of risk analysis in an weapon system research and development project. For risk analysis, an advanced stochastic networking technique-VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) is used. Assumptions for activities of network diagram and conversion methods from PERT ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to VERT are discussed. Also, simulation result is presented and discussed.

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A Study on the Feasibility analysis model for Housing Environment Improvement Project of Depressed region - Focused on the project by the public sector - (낙후지역 주거환경개선사업 타당성분석 평가모델 연구 - 공공(公共) 시행사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Jung-Min;Choi, Chan-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to set and analyze the standard model for prioritizing and deciding to take part in housing environment improvement project in the perspective of the public sector. The results of this study were as follows. The location competitiveness, potential demand, marketability and competitive price, etc were selected by assessment indicators. And Various indicators, including of the size of the area, public transportation, accessibility, convenience of living and the influx of the population, were used by weights indexes. The profit of local residents and the public promoter, variability of earnings, sensitivity analysis and the ratio of money in reserve, etc were also established as detailed indexes for the profitability and business risk analysis. To analyze the cash flow of the project process and review the necessary capital in advance, the payback, total working expenses, gearing ratio and sensitivity of a risk, etc were also set as additional detailed indexes. Lastly, considering it is quasi-public projects, the measure to protect tenants, necessity need of redevelopment and local government's will were additionally used by indexes. And Points were distributed on the importance of each index and scored out of 100. It will allow for the public project promoter to decide rationally whether to come in on the project. The public project promoter like the Korea Land and Housing Corporation will be able to make use of various indexes are based on this study to make decision whether joining the housing environment improvement project in depressed region.

Usability of Project Finance with Sinking Fund (감채기금을 이용한 프로젝트 파이낸스의 유용성)

  • Han, Sang Jun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.369-392
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    • 2011
  • A pure project finance is exposed to high default risk because it is made solely based on the business value of the project. Project finance with sinking funds can reduce the high default risk, in that it uses sinking funds to ensure the principal without requiring collaterals or guarantees. In view of economic efficiency, this paper analytically compares project finance with sinking funds to usual project finance and derives the condition for its superiority in corporate tax saving. Because sinking funds generate the repayments for the principal with compounding interest rates, in terms of effectiveness, project finance with sinking funds is suitable for long-term projects whose period is longer than 10 years. Pension funds can be good sources for project finance with sinking funds, since they should be managed to ensure stable investment returns for long periods.

The Evaluation of Value at Risk in Build Transfer Lease Project (민간투자사업의 위험가치 평가 - 임대형 민간투자사업(BTL)의 위험가치 평가 제도를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Seok-Joon;Kim, Sang-Sin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • 제10권10호
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    • pp.2907-2916
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    • 2009
  • PPPs(Public Private Partnerships) in Korea was introduced in 1990s, which mainly used for providing transportation facilities such as railroad and high-way. Since 2005, a service delivery type PPPs, in other words BTL(Build Transfer Lease) has been implemented, which focused on social infra-structure including school, military housing, and sewage facilities. According to previous literature, efficient risk evaluation and management is the key factor for successful PPPs in the UK and Australia. However, Korea doesn't have proper risk evaluation system for PPP type project. In this paper, we explore and analyze risk evaluation system of PPPs in Korea and other countries. Also, we apply empirical methodology used in the UK to a BTL project and set up a new PSC(Public Sector Comparator) with risk evaluation.