• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1364-1369
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• 2009

The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management is composed of identification, analysis and response. Especially, the risk analysis is important to objectively calculate significance of risk factors. This paper evaluates a method to find priorities of risks using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The method has some defects; (1) the consistency becomes weak as the number of pair-wise compared risks is large, and (2) the input and output procedures are complex when risks are added to or removed from a risk database. Thus the paper adopt the PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod Enrichment Evaluations) analysis process which is able to overcome the limitation of the AHP restricted to 9 risk factors. The PROMETHEE method makes the procedure of risk analysis simple, when the risk factors pull out and put in the risk database. The purpose of this study is to prove the possibility of the PROMETHEE analysis process by being compared with AHP.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.27-65
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• 2006

This study reviews the success cases of National Research&Development Projects such as TDX and CDMA projects at the catching-up stage and FTTH technology development project at the post catching-up stage. First, we investigate why the success model of national R&D projects at the catching-up stage failed to operate properly at the post catching-up stage, and then we propose improved policies for a successful national R&D project at the post-catching up stage. From the comparison of FTTH development case at the post catching-up with TDX and CDMA cases at the catching-up stage, we observed that at the catching-up stage 1) there are high uncertainties in technology development and it is very difficult to establish technology standards, 2) it is difficult to conduct government driven R&D and to develop a market for the technology developed, 3) it is difficult to share a vision among the participants in the H&D consortium, and 4) commercialization of the technology developed from the project was carried out by SMEs and venture businesses with little marketing capabilities. Also, we discuss the national level technology development strategies and the role of the government for a successful national research and develop project at the post catching-up stage.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.403-417
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• 2014

Future changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over East Asia under anthropogenic global warming are investigated by comparing the historical run for 1979~2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006~2100 with 20 coupled models which participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Although an increase in future temperature over the East Asian monsoon region has been commonly accepted, the prediction of future precipitation under global warming still has considerable uncertainties with a large inter-model spread. Thus, we select best five models, based on the evaluation of models' performance in present climate for boreal summer and winter seasons, to reduce uncertainties in future projection. Overall, the CMIP5 models better simulate climatological temperature and precipitation over East Asia than the phase 3 of CMIP and the five best models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) has better performance than all 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME). Under anthropogenic global warming, significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrast over the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future. The contrast of future precipitation in winter between land and ocean will decrease over East Asia whereas that in summer particularly over the Korean Peninsula, associated with the Changma, will increase. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study has made an effort on providing a more reliable range of future change for temperature and precipitation particularly over the Korean Peninsula than previous studies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.146-154
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• 2007

The u-City construction project has become a hot topic In the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because the future business environments for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it Is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Then, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. On the basis of the proposed scenarios, the business strategies of potential construction firms in the u-City construction market has been formulated. Therefore, construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic data for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.91-98
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• 2017

Due to climate change, countries around the world are actively investing in renewable energy, reducing fossil fuel use. 23.7% of world electricity is supplied by renewable energy. As the technology continues to develop, it is in a level to compete in terms of power generation cost, and investment conditions are improving. However, investment in renewable energy projects is not easy. This study analyzed trends of domestic and international researches on economics assessment applying real options analysis to investment decisions of hydro, solar, and wind power projects, which account for a large portion of renewable energy. This study provides (1) the difference between the traditional economic method and the real options analysis, (2) the application process, and (3) the uncertainty elements and option type of the renewable energy project presented by many studies. The real options analysis is suitable for the detailed investment strategy by considering the uncertainties of the renewable energy project and applying the option to improve the profit or to avoid the risk.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

In this study, we developed AMI terminals of 1 (reader): N (small transmitter). Currently, the government is focusing on the Gas AMI demonstration project to advance the outdated metering system of the urban gas industry, led by the government-sponsored ministries. The supply of gas AMI meters has the advantage of resolving uncertainties in privacy violations and measurement information and preparing for consumer safety through gas leakage detection. In the case of existing AMI meters, readers and transmitters were 1:1 methods, while this technology can be extended to multiple generations with a 1:N method, and a technology that can extend battery life by implementing a low-power design is applied. We hope that this research will contribute to the gas AMI supply project in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.314-314
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• 2023

Extreme climate events can have a large impact on human life by hampering social, environmental, and economic development. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the widely used numerical models to understand the anticipated future climate change. However, different GCMs can project different future climates due to structural differences, varying initial boundary conditions and assumptions about the physical phenomena. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach can improve the uncertainties associated with the different GCM outcomes. In this study, a comprehensive rating metric was used to select the best-performing GCMs out of 11 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 GCMs, according to their skills in terms of four temporal and five spatial performance indices, in replicating the 21 extreme climate indices during the baseline (1975-2017) in South Korea. The MME data were derived by averaging the simulations from all selected GCMs and three top-ranked GCMs. The random forest (RF) algorithm was also used to derive the MME data from the three top-ranked GCMs. The RF-derived MME data of the three top-ranked GCMs showed the highest performance in simulating the baseline extreme climate which was subsequently used to project the future extreme climate indices under both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) and the socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios (SSP). The extreme cold and warming indices had declining and increasing trends, respectively, and most extreme precipitation indices had increasing trends over the period 2031-2100. Compared to all scenarios, RCP8.5 showed drastic changes in future extreme climate indices. The coasts in the east, south and west had stronger warming than the rest of the country, while mountain areas in the north experienced more extreme cold. While extreme cold climatology gradually declined from north to south, extreme warming climatology continuously grew from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions. The results showed that the socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.31-40
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• 2014

The management of vehicular supply of "perishable" construction material, such as concrete mixes, faces a series of uncertainties such as weather, daily traffic patterns and accidents. Presented in this paper is a logistics control model for managing a hauling fleet with interrelated processes at both ends and queue capacities. Discrete event simulation is used to model the complex interactions of production units and the randomness of the real world. Two alternative strategies for ready mix concrete delivery, with and without an off-site waiting queue, are studied to compare supply performance. Secondly, the paper discusses the effect of an agent-based GPS tracking system providing real-time travel data that lessens the uncertainty of trucking time. The results show that the combination of GPS information with off-site queuing reduces productivity loss and process wastes of concrete placement as well as the idleness of supply trucks when crew or pump experience an unexpected stoppage.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.5 s.27
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• pp.177-185
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• 2005

Construction uncertainties are frequently exposed to the claims. In most cases, an interpretation of the claims is based on the construction contract. Therefore, the key points of contract negotiation are how to fairly distribute the contract risks to the client and contractor. For these, a FIDIC that is considered as an international standard contract form would be a good reference to decide reasonable contract risk distribution. In order to find out any unreasonable and unfair contract clauses at the general conditions of contract applying generally to public construction project in Korea, this study surveys, analyses and evaluates the general conditions of contract based on a FIDIC, and then proposes a risk mitigation methodology to response those clauses' risk factors reasonably.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.483-503
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• 2017

Uncertainty is a fact belonging to engineering practice. An important uncertainty that sets geotechnical engineering is the variability associated with the properties of soils or, more precisely, the characterization of soil profiles. The reason is due largely to the complex and varied natural processes associated with the formation of soil. Spatial variability analysis for the study of the stability of natural slopes, complementing conventional analyses, is able to incorporate these uncertainties. In this paper the characterization is performed in back-analysis for a case of landslide occurred to verify afterwards the presence of the conditions of shear strength at failure. This approach may support designers to make more accurate estimates regarding slope failure responding, more consciously, to the legislation dispositions about slope stability evaluation and future design. By applying different kriging techniques used for spatial analysis it has been possible to perform a 3D-slope reconstruction. The predictive analysis and the areal mapping of the soil mechanical characteristics would support the definition of priority interventions in the zones characterized by more critical values as well as slope potential instability. This tool of analysis aims to support decision-making by directing project planning through the efficient allocation of available resources.