• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.1193-1215
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• 2021

The measurement of the key product quality index plays an important role in improving the production efficiency and ensuring the safety of the enterprise. Since the actual working conditions and parameters will inevitably change to some extent with time, such as drift of working point, wear of equipment and temperature change, etc., these will lead to the degradation of the quality variable prediction model. To deal with this problem, the selective integrated moving windows based principal component regression (SIMV-PCR) is proposed in this study. In the algorithm of traditional moving window, only the latest local process information is used, and the global process information will not be enough. In order to make full use of the process information contained in the past windows, a set of local models with differences are selected through hypothesis testing theory. The significance levels of both T - test and χ² - test are used to judge whether there is identity between two local models. Then the models are integrated by Bayesian quality estimation to improve the accuracy of quality variable prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive soft measurement method is verified by a numerical example and a practical industrial process.

• 실천공학교육논문지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.305-312
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• 2022

본 논문에서는 기초적인 데이터 예측 모델을 만들고 최적화하는 교육에 초점을 맞추었다. 그리고 데이터 예측 모델을 최적화하는 데 널리 사용되는 머신러닝의 경사하강법 교육 방법을 제안하였다. 미분법을 적용하여 데이터 예측 모델에 필요한 파라미터 값들을 최적화하는 과정에 사용되는 경사하강법의 전체 동작과정을 시각적으로 보여주며, 수학의 미분법이 머신러닝에 효과적으로 사용되는 것을 교육한다. 경사하강법의 전체 동작과정을 시각적으로 설명하기위해, 스프레드시트로 경사하강법 SW를 구현한다. 본 논문에서는 첫번째로, 2변수 경사하강법 교육 방법을 제시하고, 오차 최소제곱법과 비교하여 2변수 데이터 예측모델의 정확도를 검증한다. 두번째로, 3변수 경사하강법 교육 방법을 제시하고, 3변수 데이터 예측모델의 정확도를 검증한다. 이후, 경사하강법 최적화 실습 방향을 제시하고, 비전공자 교육 만족도 결과를 통해, 제안한 경사하강법 교육방법이 갖는 교육 효과를 분석하였다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.109-116
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• 2001

The detection of corporate failures is a subject that has been particularly amenable to cross-sectional financial ratio analysis. In most of firms, however, the financial data are available over past years. Because of this, a model utilizing these longitudinal data could provide useful information on the prediction of bankruptcy. To correctly reflect the longitudinal and firm-specific data, the generalized linear model with assuming the first order AR(autoregressive) process is proposed. The method is motivated by the clinical research that several characteristics are measured repeatedly from individual over the time. The model is compared with several other predictive models to evaluate the performance. By using the financial data from manufacturing corporations in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) list, we will discuss some experiences learned from the procedure of sampling scheme, variable transformation, imputation, variable selection, and model evaluation. Finally, implications of the model with repeated measurement and future direction of research will be discussed.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.357-366
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• 2010

Many tree algorithms have been developed for regression problems. Although they are regarded as good algorithms, most of them suffer from loss of prediction accuracy when there are many noise variables. To handle this problem, we propose the multi-step GUIDE, which is a regression tree algorithm with a variable selection process. The multi-step GUIDE performs better than some of the well-known algorithms such as Random Forest and MARS. The results based on simulation study shows that the multi-step GUIDE outperforms other algorithms in terms of variable selection and prediction accuracy. It generally selects the important variables correctly with relatively few noise variables and eventually gives good prediction accuracy.

• 생태와환경
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.161-167
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• 2010

In this study, we implemented an experimental approach of ecological model development in order to emphasize the importance of input variable selection with respect to time-delayed arrangement between input and output variables. Time-series modeling requires relevant input variable selection for the prediction of a specific output variable (e.g. density of a species). Inadequate variable utility for input often causes increase of model construction time and low efficiency of developed model when applied to real world representation. Therefore, for future prediction, researchers have to decide number of time-delay (e.g. months, weeks or days; t-n) to predict a certain phenomenon at current time t. We prepared a total of 3,900 equation models produced by Time-Series Optimized Genetic Programming (TSOGP) algorithm, for the prediction of monthly averaged density of a potamic phytoplankton species Stephanodiscus hantzschii, considering future prediction from 0- (no future prediction) to 12-months ahead (interval by 1 month; 300 equations per each month-delay). From the investigation of model structure, input variable selectivity was obviously affected by the time-delay arrangement, and the model predictability was related with the type of input variables. From the results, we can conclude that, although Machine Learning (ML) algorithms which have popularly been used in Ecological Informatics (EI) provide high performance in future prediction of ecological entities, the efficiency of models would be lowered unless relevant input variables are selectively used.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제52권1호
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• pp.43-56
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• 2024

Purpose: The injection molding process, crucial for plastic shaping, encounters difficulties in sustaining product quality when replacing injection machines. Variations in machine types and outputs between different production lines or factories increase the risk of quality deterioration. In response, the study aims to develop a system that optimally adjusts conditions during the replacement of injection machines linked to molds. Methods: Utilizing a dataset of 12 injection process variables and 52 corresponding sensor variables, a predictive model is crafted using Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost. Model evaluation is conducted using an 80% training data and a 20% test data split. The dependent variable, classified into five characteristics based on temperature and pressure, guides the prediction model. Bayesian optimization, integrated into the selected model, determines optimal values for process variables during the replacement of injection machines. The iterative convergence of sensor prediction values to the optimum range is visually confirmed, aligning them with the target range. Experimental results validate the proposed approach. Results: Post-experiment analysis indicates the superiority of the XGBoost model across all five characteristics, achieving a combined high performance of 0.81 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.77. The study introduces a method for optimizing initial conditions in the injection process during machine replacement, utilizing Bayesian optimization. This streamlined approach reduces both time and costs, thereby enhancing process efficiency. Conclusion: This research contributes practical insights to the optimization literature, offering valuable guidance for industries seeking streamlined and cost-effective methods for machine replacement in injection molding.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제16권11호
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• pp.98-105
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• 1999

As the IC(Integrated Circuit) has been densified and complicated, it is required to thorough process control to improve yield. Experts, for this purpose, focused on the process analysis automation, which is came from the strict data management in semiconductor manufacturing. In this paper, we presents the process analysis system that can analyze causes, for a output after processes. Also, the plasma etching process that highly affects yield among semiconductor process is modeled to predict a output before the process. To approach this problem, we use adaptively trained neural networks that exhibit superior accuracy over statistical techniques. And in comparison with methods in other paper, a method that history of trend for input data is considered is shown to offer advantage in both learning and prediction capability. This research regards CD(Critical Dimension) that is considerable in high integrated circuit as output variable of the prediction model.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2008년도 하계종합학술대회
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• pp.983-984
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• 2008

This paper proposes a variable break that can offset prediction error as well as a pre-selection methods, based on the variable break, for enhanced unit selection. In Japanese, a sentence consists of several APs (Accentual phrases) and MPs (Major phrases), and the breaks between these phrases must predicted to realize text-to-speech systems. An MP also consists of several APs and plays a decisive role in making synthetic speech natural and understandable because short pauses appear at its boundary. The variable break is defined as a break that is able to change easily from an AP to an MP boundary, or from an MP to an AP boundary. Using CART (Classification and Regression Trees), the variable break is modeled stochastically, and then we pre-select candidate units in the unit-selection process. As the experimental results show, it was possible to complement a break prediction error and improve the naturalness of synthetic speech.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.43-47
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• 2014

Famous artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to predict proper process window of arc welding. Target weldment is variously combined lap joint fillet welding of automotive steel plates. ANN's system variable such as number of hidden layers, perceptrons and transfer function are carefully selected through case by case test. Input variables are welding condition and steel plate combination, for example, welding machine type, shield gas composition, current, speed and strength, thickness of base material. The number of each input variable referred in welding experiment is counted and provided to make it possible to presume the qualitative precision and limit of prediction. One of experimental process windows is excluded for predictability estimation and the rest are applied for neural network training. As expected from basic ANN theory, experimental condition composed of frequently referred input variables showed relatively more precise prediction while rarely referred set showed poorer result. As conclusion, application of ANN to arc welding process window derivation showed comparatively practical feasibility while it still needs more training for higher precision.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:정보통신
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.156-167
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 VBR(Variable-Bit-Rate) 트래픽의 비선형적이고 버스티한 특성을 모델화 한 GOP ARIMA(ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) 모델을 칼만 필터 알고리즘을 이용하여 실시간으로 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 칼만 필터를 이용한 예측 기법은 GOP ARIMA의 상태공간 모델링 과정과 향후 N초 간의 트래픽을 예측하는 과정으로 구성된다. 실험을 위해 GOP의 크기가 각각 15인 세 가지 종류의 MPEG VBR 트래픽(뉴스, 드라마, 스포츠)을 제작하였고, 칼만 필터를 이용한 세 가지 종류의 트래픽의 예측 결과를 선형 예측법과 이중 지수 평활법을 이용해 예측한 결과와 비교해 예측 성능이 상대적으로 우수함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 예측값에 신뢰 구간을 설정하는 신뢰 구간 분석법을 통해 트래픽 관점에서 장면 변화를 예측하는 방법을 제시하였다. 본 논문의 칼만 필터 기반의 예측 알고리즘은 MPEG 기반 VBR 트래픽을 비롯한 기타 인터넷 트래픽을 실시간으로 예측하는 방법과 이를 이용해 인터넷 서버의 설계 및 자원 할당 정책 등을 위한 트래픽 엔지니어링 연구에 기여할 수 있을 것이다.