• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.493-505
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• 1997

The analysis of binary data appears to many areas such as statistics, biometrics and econometrics. In many cases, data are often collected in which some observations are incomplete. Assume that the missing covariates are missing at random and the responses are completely observed. A method to Bayesian analysis of the binary regression model with incomplete data is presented. In particular, the desired marginal posterior moments of regression parameter are obtained using Meterpolis algorithm (Metropolis et al. 1953) within Gibbs sampler (Gelfand and Smith, 1990). Also, we compare logit model with probit model using Bayes factor which is approximated by importance sampling method. One example is presented.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.98-106
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• 2014

This study proposes severity analysis for pedestrian accidents by improving variables which were used for general severity analysis. The existing variables were collected based on the interviews with policeman or witnesses and evidence of accidents. Therefore, existing variables were subjective and had several measurement errors. In order to improve such problems, this study collected variables from vehicle recorder of taxi which recorded the moment of accidents. As a result, explanatory power of independent variables was enhanced and the complete objective variables could be collected. After collecting variables, ordered probit model was developed by utilizing vehicle recorder database. Fitness of ordered probit model was 0.23. Vehicle speed and pedestrian's eye direction variables were the most critical factors for severity of pedestrian accident. In addition, severity analysis for vulnerable pedestrian was carried out. As a result, it was revealed that vehicle speed, pedestrian's eye direction and safety zone variables affected the severity of pedestrian accidents most. Particularly, vehicle speed variable is the most important factor. Consequently, driver's defensive driving and compliance to the regulations are the priority to reduce severity of pedestrian accidents and prevent pedestrian accident.

• 동아시아식생활학회지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.165-171
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• 2008

The purpose of this study was to measure tourists' preference for alternative restaurants with different combinations of attribute levels: grown area logo, origin description, traditional food, fusion food, national food, and price. A total of 210 questionnaires were completed. A conjoint experimental method was used to develop hypothetical restaurants, and an ordinal probit model was used to measure the effects of the attribute levels on tourists' preference. The ordinal probit model analysis results for the data indicated an excellent model fit. The effects of the attribute levels on tourists' preferences were statistically significant. As expected, estimates of the marginal willingness to pay were statistically significant Moreover, the tourists were more willing to pay for grown area logo as compared to the other attribute levels. The tourists also considered the grown area logo as a very important attribute. Withe regard to developing and testing conjoint models in the design of choice experiments involving multifactor alternatives, this study may approach a deeper understanding of the conjoint experiment. Greater understanding of the conjoint experiment can improve the managerial diagnoses of the problems as well as the opportunities for different marketing strategies including local branding programs and menu development and marketing communications.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.147-158
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to identify differences based on demographic characteristics and travel-related characteristics: first, whether travelers used a domestic travel agency and second whether travelers purchased a full-package travel program. A sample selection probit model was used to provide simultaneous evaluation of the different characteristics of outbound travelers. The present study investigates how tourists make decisions based on two travel-pattern choices. It then goes on to explore the characteristics of outbound travelers from South Korea. The data is drawn from a nationwide survey in South Korea, and a total of 859 surveys were used for analysis. Due to the interdependent nature of the choices, a sample selection probit model was used to estimate outbound tourists' use of domestic travel agency and purchase of full travel package. Significant determinants of domestic travel agency use are identified as age, gender, marital status, party size, children, length of travel, and travel distance, while those of full travel package purchase are age, marital status, and travel purpose. Estimated results provide manifestations of differing travel needs of outbound travelers. the results of this study demonstrate differences between travel-agency users and full-package travel-program consumers and provide determinants that affect the purchase of full-package travel.

• 농촌계획
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.59-65
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• 2011

Re-visitation have an effect on dependent variables of regional tourism demand model. This study focused on the re-visitation impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development of tourists as a new factors of tourism. Based on literature reviews, 11 variables were selected, a questionnaire survey was given to 406 tourists divided into 5 tourism sites at Chuncheon city, and logit model and probit model were used for analysis. The fitness levels of two models were very significant(p=0.0000). The study results suggest that the likelihood of the rural tourist to make a return visit is influenced by recognition of sustainable tourism, purchase of souvenir and farm produce, visitation of regional shops, conversation with regional residents, residents' participation on development, age and marriage. The results of such re-visitation demand can provide information for regional development strategies. The approach to re-visitation research impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development is expected to become a useful foundation in studying on sustainable regional development.

• 한국조리학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.215-224
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• 2008

The objective for this research was to clarify the preference for alternative restaurants with different combinations of factor levels: local specialty food, non-local specialty food, very attentive service, moderately attentive service, not attentive service, traditional decoration, modern decoration, \10,000, \15,000, and \20,000. Total 230 copies of questionnaire were completed. Conjoint experiment method was used to develop full restaurant profiles. Ordinal probit model was used to measure the effects of factor levels on the preference. Results of the study demonstrated that the ordinal probit model analysis result for the data also indicated a good model fit. The effects of factor levels on the preference were statistically significant. As expected, the estimates of implicit price to pay were statistically significant. Moreover, the customers were more willing to pay for local specialty than other factor levels. The customers also considered the food factor as a very important factor. This research suggested that the customer's decision-making process for restaurants was best modeled as a conjoint experiment method that combines various factor levels. And it showed the results could be used as good data for understanding the relationships between the factors and preference in choosing food and restaurants in tourist areas.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2023

현재 통용되고 있는 화석연료로부터 발생되는 환경오염에 대한 대안으로써 대기오염이 발생하지 않는 수소를 사용하기 위한 연구가 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 하지만, 최근까지도 수소 누출에 의한 화재 및 폭발사고가 발생함에 따라 특수한 환경인 선박에서 수소를 상용화하기 위해 안전에 관한 연구가 더욱 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 수소저장탱크가 설비된 수소연료전지 추진선박이 울산 장생포항을 운항하던 중 누출사고가 발생할 경우의 계절별 대안 시나리오와 최악의 시나리오를 가정하였다. 또한, 환경변수를 고려하기 위하여 기상청 2021년도 연평균 기상자료와 통계청 지리정보 자료를 토대로 ALOHA와 프로빗 분석을 통해 피해 영향 범위를 도출하였다. 복사열이 대안 시나리오와 최악의 시나리오 모두에서 과압과 화염의 피해 영향범위 보다 넓은 피해범위가 나타났고 프로빗 분석 결과 가정한 모든 구역에서 99%의 사망률을 확인하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.44-49
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• 2010

This paper is estimation of structure damage caused by Explosion in LPG(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) filling station. As we estimate the influence of damage which occur at gas storage tank in filling station. We can utilize the elementary data of safety distance. In this study, the influence of over-pressure caused by VCE(Vapor Cloud Explosion) in filling station was calculated by using the Hopkinson's scaling law and the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structure into the probit model. As a result of the damage estimation conducted by using the probit model, both the damage possibility of explosion overpressure to structures of max 265 meters away and to glass bursting of 1150 meters away was nearly zero in open space explosion.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.21-26
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• 1999

화학공장에서 발생하는 사고는 공장 자체의 손실을 가져 올 뿐만 아니라 주위 지역에도 영향을 미친다. 그리고 사고로 인한 피해는 대형화할 가능성이 크다. 이에 따라 화학 공장의 안전 관리의 중요성이 부각되고 있다. 사고의 정량 평가는 사고의 규모를 미리 예측하는 것으로 이를 통해 공정 장치의 layout, 주위와의 최소 안전거리 예측, 대피 시설의 설치 등과 같은 대책을 세울 수 있다 본 연구에서는 화학공장의 3대 사고형태 중 화재와 폭발의 피해 예측을 용이하게 하기 위한 프로그램을 작성하였다. 화재의 경우에는 Pool Fire와 Fireball로 인한 피해를 예측할 수 있도록 하였고, 폭발의 경우에는 UVCE와 BLEVE로 인한 손실을 예측 할 수 있도록 하였다. 화재는 화염에서 나오는 복사열을 피해 정도를 예측하는 기준으로 사용하였고, 폭발은 과압을 기준으로 하였다. 특히, BLEVE의 경우에는 파편의 예상 비산 거리도 추정할 수 있도록 하였다. 각각의 결과를 이용해 Probit 분석을 할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 이를 기존에 발생했던 부천의 LPG 폭발 사고에의 분석에 사용해본 결과 노출 허용 거리가 800m이었다. 그리고 Probit 분석 결과 1도 화상, 2도 화상, 화재 사망은 각각 450m, 280m, 260m 이상일 경우 직접적인 피해가 없을 것으로 예측되었다. 사고 분석 결과는 이를 한국산업안전공단에서 Dupont의 SAFER 프로그램을 사용하여 얻어낸 예측치와 $3\%$이내의 같은 결과를 얻었다.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.81-94
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• 2022

서비스 산업에서 널리 사용되는 설문조사 형태의 정성적 평가방법은 서비스 품질을 평가하는 주요한 평가 수단으로 활용되는데, 이때 설문조사 결과에 응답자의 주관적 판단이 개입될 수 있는 여지가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 정성적 평가 결과에 포함될 수 있는 주관적 판단을 최대한 배제하고 객관성을 확보하기 위한 방안을 제시한다. 특히 같은 종류의 정성적 평가도구가 여러 사람에 의해 반복적으로 사용되는 상황에서의 객관성 확보 방안에 대해 연구하였다. 이를 위해, Ordered Probit 모델 및 제3자 평가 결과를 함께 활용하여 주관성 개입 여부를 판단하고, 주관성을 보정한 후, 최종 결과에 대해 통계적으로 검증하는 절차를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 분석한 어플리케이션은 의료서비스 분야이며, 특히 특정 의료서비스 제공 환경에서 해당 서비스 제공자가 자가 진단한 실제 평가 결과를 본 연구에서 제안하는 방법론을 통해 어떻게 객관성이 확보될 수 있는지 구체적으로 설명하였다.