• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probable Rainfall

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A Study on the Daily Probability of Rainfall in the Taegu Area according to the Theory of Probaility (대구지방(大邱地方)의 확률일우량(確率日雨量)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Young Ki;Na, In Yup
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 1971
  • With the advance of civilization and steadily increasing population rivalry and competition for the use of the sewage, culverts, farm irrigation and control of various types of flood discharge have developed and will be come more and more keen in the future. The author has tried to calculated a formula that could adjust these conflicts and bring about proper solutions for many problems arising in connection with these conditions. The purpose of this study is to find out effective sewage, culvert, drainage, farm irrigation, flood discharge and other engineering needs in the Taegu area. If demands expand further a new formula will have to be calculated. For the above the author estimated methods of control for the probable expected rainfall using a formula based on data collected over a long period of time. The formula is determined on the basis of the maximum daily rainfall data from 1921 to 1971 in the Taegu area. 1. Iwai methods shows a highly significant correlation among the variations of Hazen, Thomas, Gumbel methods and logarithmic normal distribution. 2. This study obtained the following major formula: ${\log}(x-2.6)=0.241{\xi}+1.92049{\cdots}{\cdots}$(I.M) by using the relation $F(x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}{\int}_{-{\infty}}^{\xi}e^{-{\xi}^2}d{\xi}$. ${\xi}=a{\log}_{10}\(\frac{x+b}{x_0+b}\)$ ($-b<x<{\infty}$) ${\log}(x_0+b)=2.0448$ $\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}S_x=0.1954$. $b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{m}b_s=-2.6$ $S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits^N_{i=1}\{{\log}(x_i+b)\}^2-\{{\log}(x_0+b)\}^2}=0.169$ This formule may be advantageously applicable to the estimation of flood discharge, sewage, culverts and drainage in the Taegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by the following. Other notations for general terms was used as needed. $W_{(x)}$ : probability of occurranec, $W_{(x)}=\int_{x}^{\infty}f_{(n)}dx$ $S_{(x)}$ : probability of noneoccurrance. $S_{(x)}=\int_{-\infty}^{x}f_(x)dx=1-W_{(x)}$ T : Return period $T=\frac{1}{nW_{(x)}}$ or $T=\frac{1}{nS_{(x)}}$ $W_n$ : Hazen plot $W_n=\frac{2n-1}{2N}$ $F_n=1-W_x=1-\(\frac{2n-1}{2N}\)$ n : Number of observation (annual maximum series) P : Probability $P=\frac{N!}{{t!}(N-t)}F{_i}^{N-t}(1-F_i)^t$ $F_n$ : Thomas plot $F_n=\(1-\frac{n}{N+1}\)$ N : Total number of sample size $X_l$ : $X_s$ : maximum, minumum value of total number of sample size.

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Investigating Remotely Sensed Precipitation from Different Sources and Their Nonlinear Responses in a Physically Based Hydrologic Model (다른 원격탐사 센서로 추출한 강우자료의 이질성과 이에 의한 비선형유출반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

Future Inundation Risk Evaluation of Farmland in the Moohan Stream Watershed Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs (CMIP5 및 CMIP6 GCM 기반 무한천 유역 농경지 미래 침수 위험도 분석)

  • Jun, Sang Min;Hwang, Soonho;Kim, Jihye;Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Kyeung;Lee, Hyun Ji;Kim, Seokhyeon;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Jae Nam;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.6
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City's hydraulic facility design standards (서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Taesam;Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2021
  • In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Park, Myungwoo;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2016
  • Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

Time Series Analysis of the Responses of the Groundwater Levels at Multi-depth Wells According to the River Stage Fluctuations (시계열 분석을 이용한 하천수위에 따른 다심도 관정의 지하수위 변동해석)

  • Ha Kyoo-Chul;Ko Kyung-Seok;Koh Dong-Chan;Yum Byoung-Woo;Lee Kang-Kun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.3 s.178
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    • pp.269-284
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    • 2006
  • Aquifer responses to the river stage fluctuations were analyzed between the groundwater level and the river stage in an alluvial aquifer. The auto-correlation and cross-correlation as a time series analysis were applied. Study site is a floodplain in the Mangyeong river. Groundwater levels in each depth representing the silt and sand(SS), gravel and sand(GS), and weathered zone(WZ) layer were monitored. The groundwater levels were more sensitive to the river stage fluctuations than rainfall. Since the river stages are influenced by the gate operations downstream and tide, show periodic patterns, and the correlation coefficients with rainfall is low. Cross-correlation function between groundwater level in each depth do not show any delay time, then response time is very short to each depth. Cross-correlation analysis were performed to estimate the response time of groundwater levels to river stage fluctuations. Groundwater levels respond to the river stage within 30 minutes to 1 hour in wells near the stream. Short time lag between groundwater level and river stage indicates the quick response. A different response time imply the hydraulic inhomogeneity of the site, and a probable high permeability zone between river and aquifer can be inferred. Mangyeong-river in study site is a gaining stream normally, and river stage rising by gate operation or floods makes river water flow into groundwater. The auto-correlation and cross-correlation functions as a time series analysis can be a good tool to interpret the aquifer responses to stream stage fluctuation

Microbiological Quality of the Shellfish-growing Waters and Mussels in Changseon, Namhae, Korea (남해 창선해역의 해수 및 진주담치의 위생학적 안전성 평가)

  • Yoo, Hyun-Duk;Ha, Kwang-Soo;Shim, Kil-Bo;Kang, Jin Yeong;Lee, Tae-Seek;Kim, Ji-Hoe
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2010
  • A sanitary survey was conducted to evaluate the water quality and mussel (Mytilus edulis) conditions of two administrative shellfish growing waters: those designated as shellfish growing water for export, and adjacent waters on the east coast of Changseon Island, Namhae, Korea. In all, 1,656 seawater and 166 mussel samples were collected at 46 stations for seawater and five stations for the shellfish from January 2007 to December 2009. Both seawater and mussels were examined for total coliforms and fecal coliforms. The standard plate count and most probable number of Escherichia coli were also determined for the shellfish samples. The range of the geometric means and the estimated 90th percentiles of fecal coliform for seawater samples at each station were <1.8-4.1 MPN/100 mL and <1.8-22.3 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The sanitary conditions for both shellfish growing areas, the designated shellfish growing area and adjacent area in Changseon, met the 'Approved area' criteria of the United States National Shellfish Sanitation Program. The range of E. coli detected in mussels in these areas was <20-500 MPN/100 g; and only 3 of 166 samples exceeded 230 MPN/100 g, the European standard for the consumption of raw bivalves. Therefore, the mussel farms in the Changseon area are classified as 'Class A' according to criteria set in European Community regulations. However, the levels of E. coli in mussels in parts of the designated shellfish growing area and adjacent area exceeded the bacterial limits after rainfall exceeding 45 mm. Further studies are needed to fully define the conditions leading to a temporary closure to harvest after a rainfall event.

An Analysis of PMF and Critical Duration for Design of Hydraulic Structure (수공구조물 설계를 위한 PMF 및 임계지속시간 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Choi, Hyun;Shin, Hee-beom;Park, Sang-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.707-718
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    • 2004
  • This study is to analyze the Probable Maximum Flood(PMF) as a part of counterplan for the disaster prevention of hydraulic structures such as dams, according to recent unfavorable weather conditions. During the period of typhoon RUSA in August 2002, the rainfall recorded in Gang-loeng Province was 880mm a day and exceeded the scale of PMP made in 2001. Accordingly, the reconsideration of hydrologic criteria for dam design was inevitable. In the design of dams for flood controls, the design flood must be determined by introducing the concept of maximum values. When the duration of design rainfall is determined, it needs to use the critical duration which causes the maximum flood by the maximum runoff. In this study, we Investigate the variation of critical duration with hydrologic parameters used in three different synthetic unit hydrographs(Clark, Nakayasu and SCS methods). As a result, the total runoff calculated from 24-hour duration is larger than that calculated from the critical duration. We calculate also the hydrographs with three different time distribution models(Huff's 4-quartile, IDF curve and Mononobe) and compare those with measured hydrograph data. From this comparison, we propose that the Huff's 4-quartile model must be used to obtain the desirable data in the hydrologic design of dams.

Limnological Study on Spring-Bloom of a Green Algae, Eudorina elegans and Weirwater PulsedFlows in the Midstream (Seungchon Weir Pool) of the Yeongsan River, Korea (영산강 중류 (승촌보)의 봄철 녹조류 Eudorina elegans 대발생과 봇물 펄스방류에 대한 육수학적 고찰)

  • Shin, Jae-Ki;Kang, Bok-Gyoo;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.320-333
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to elucidate the development of unprecedented water-bloom caused by a single species of colonial green algae Eudorina elegans in the upstream area of the Seungchon weir located in the Yeongsan River from late April to May 2013. The Yeongsan River is typically regulated system and the waterbody is seriously enriched by both external and internal sources of nutrients. Seasonal algal outbreaks were highly probable due to various potential factors, such as the excessive nutrients contained in treated wastewater, slow current, high irradiation and temperature, in diatom (winter), green algae (spring) and bluegreen algae (summer). Spring green-tide was attributed to E. elegans with level up to $1,000mg\;m^{-3}$(>$50{\times}10^4cells\;mL^{-1}$). The bloom was exploded in the initial period of the algal development and after then gradually diminished with transporting to the downstream by the intermittent rainfall, resulting in rapid expansion of the distribution range. Although the pulsed-flows by the weir manipulation was applied to control algal bloom, they were not the countermeasures to solve the underlying problem, but rather there still was a remaining problem related to the impact of pulsed-flows on the downstream. The green-tide of E. elegans in this particular region of the Yeongsan River revealed the blooming characteristics of a colonial motile microalga, and fate of vanishing away by the succeeding episodic events of mesoscale rainfall. We believe that the results of the present study contribute to limno-ecological understanding of the green-tide caused by blue-green algae in the four major rivers, Korea.

An analysis of storage and runoff reduction characteristics using planter box in architectural LID system (건축형 LID 시스템에서 Planter Box를 활용한 저류 및 유출저감 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Byung Sung;Kim, Jae Moon;Baek, Jong Seok;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.219-226
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    • 2019
  • Recently, research about Low-Impact Development (LID) techniques has been expanded due to problems with the effects of climate change and urbanization that have been increasing. LID technology is used to control flood damage environmentally to reduce runoff and is reduce runoff on city also restore into previous water circulation system from present developed city. However, studies about quantitative data of LID techniques are insufficient. Therefore in this study, the Curve Number (CN) was calculated with the Planter Box, which is storage type LID technology to conduct the water circulation (infiltration, runoff, overflow) analysis. Rainfall intensity scenario (60.4 mm/hr, 83.1 mm/hr, 97.4 mm/hr, 108.2 mm/hr) about water circulation analysis of Planter Box is selected on the basis of probable rainfall intensity table. According to the experimental results, the storage rate of rainwater in Building Planter Box and Street Planter Box was 43.5% to 52.9% and 33.4% to 39%, respectively. In addition, CN value is estimated to 83 at the Planter box and the runoff reduction effect by applying Horton's infiltration capacity curve showed on 51% to 98%.