• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of performance failure

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Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between R&D Inputs and Performance Using Successive Binary Logistic Regression Models (연속적 이항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 R&D 투입 및 성과 관계에 대한 실증분석)

  • Park, Sungmin
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.342-357
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    • 2014
  • The present study analyzes the relationship between research and development (R&D) inputs and performance of a national technology innovation R&D program using successive binary Logistic regression models based on a typical R&D logic model. In particular, this study focuses on to answer the following three main questions; (1) "To what extent, do the R&D inputs have an effect on the performance creation?"; (2) "Is an obvious relationship verified between the immediate predecessor and its successor performance?"; and (3) "Is there a difference in the performance creation between R&D government subsidy recipient types and between R&D collaboration types?" Methodologically, binary Logistic regression models are established successively considering the "Success-Failure" binary data characteristic regarding the performance creation. An empirical analysis is presented analyzing the sample n = 2,178 R&D projects completed. This study's major findings are as follows. First, the R&D inputs have a statistically significant relationship only with the short-term, technical output, "Patent Registration." Second, strong dependencies are identified between the immediate predecessor and its successor performance. Third, the success probability of the performance creation is statistically significantly different between the R&D types aforementioned. Specifically, compared with "Large Company", "Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SMS)" shows a greater success probability of "Sales" and "New Employment." Meanwhile, "R&D Collaboration" achieves a larger success probability of "Patent Registration" and "Sales."

Analysis of flexural fatigue failure of concrete made with 100% coarse recycled and natural aggregates

  • Murali, G.;Indhumathi, T.;Karthikeyan, K.;Ramkumar, V.R.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the flexural fatigue performance of concrete beams made with 100% Coarse Recycled Concrete Aggregates (RCA) and 100% Coarse Natural Aggregates (NA) were statistically commanded. For this purpose, the experimental fatigue test results of earlier researcher were investigated using two parameter Weibull distribution. The shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution function was evaluated using seven numerical methods namely, Graphical method (GM), Least-Squares (LS) regression of Y on X, Least-Squares (LS) regression of X on Y, Empherical Method of Lysen (EML), Mean Standard Deviation Method (MSDM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM) and Method of Moments (MOM). The average of Weibull parameters was used to incorporate survival probability into stress (S)-fatigue life (N) relationships. Based on the Weibull theory, as single and double logarithm fatigue equations for RCA and NA under different survival probability were provided. The results revealed that, by considering 0.9 level survival probability, the theoretical stress level corresponding to a fatigue failure number equal to one million cycle, decreases by 8.77% (calculated using single-logarithm fatigue equation) and 6.62% (calculated using double logarithm fatigue equation) in RCA when compared to NA concrete.

English Channel Allocation Scheme based on Multiple Guard Channels (플루이드 모델에 따른 다중 보호채널 기반 채널할당기법의 성능 분석)

  • 박희철;이도형;박영근
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4A
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    • pp.471-480
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    • 2000
  • With the limited wireless resources, various traffic in the cellular system is served based on micro-cell or pico-cell structure. The rapid increase in the number of mobile users results in the frequent handoff which is becoming a critical issue. In this paper, we propose a channel allocation scheme to reduce the probability of handoff failure. In this scheme, we provide a guard channel for each service to handle the handoff processes. It maintains the low probability of failure in handoff calls. To prevent the performance degradation due to the traffic variation, we use a channel arbitration method that adaptively manages the number of channels based on the call density. We evaluated the performance in terms of the initial call blocking probability and the handoff call blocking probability for various traffic and motility. We found that the proposed scheme keeps the lower probability of call blocking through the efficient channel arbitration than other suggested methods even for the irregular traffic conditions.

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Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Electromagnetic Devices by Evaluating Probabilistic Constraints Based on Performance Measure Approach (목표 성능치 기반의 확률구속조건 평가 기법을 이용한 전자기 장치의 신뢰도 기반 최적설계)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.62-67
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    • 2013
  • This paper introduces an effective methodology for reliability-based design optimization of electromagnetic products, where a performance measure approach is adopted to accurately assess probabilistic constrains. Two design problems consisting of a loudspeaker and a superconducting magnetic energy storage system are considered. The efficiency of the proposed method in evaluating the failure probability of performances during the optimization process are compared with the existing method based on the reliability index approach. Moreover, in term of the accuracy of probability failure values, optimized design results are examined with reference values obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation.

Seismic Performance Evaluation Methodology for Nuclear Power Plants (원전 구조물의 내진성능 평가 방법론 고찰)

  • Ann, Hojune;Kim, Yousok;Kong, Jung Sik;Choi, Youngjin;Choi, Se Woon;Lee, Min Seok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 2018
  • Since 2000, the frequency of earthquakes beyond the 5.0 magnitude quake has been increasing in the Korean peninsula. For instance, the 5.0-magnitude earthquake in Baekryong-do in 2003 has occurred, and recent earthquake with Gyeongju(2016) and Pohang(2017) measured respectively magnitude of 5.2 and 5.8 on the Richter scale. As results, the public concern and anxiety about earthquakes are increasing, and therefore it is necessarily required for social infrastructure to reinforce seismic design and energy production facilities directly related to the national economy and security. This study represents the analysis of seismic performance evaluation methodology such as Seismic Margin Assessment (SMA), Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), High Confidence Low Probability Failure (HCLPF) in nuclear power plants in order to develop optimal seismic performance improvement. Current methodologies to evaluate nuclear power plants are also addressed. Through review of the nuclear structure evaluation past and current trend, it contributes to be the basis for the improvement of evaluation techniques on the next generation of nuclear power plants.

LTE Mobility Enhancements for Evolution into 5G

  • Park, Hyun-Seo;Choi, Yong-Seouk;Kim, Byung-Chul;Lee, Jae-Yong
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.1065-1076
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    • 2015
  • Network densification is regarded as the dominant driver for wireless evolution into the era of 5G. However, in this context, interference-limited dense small cell deployments are facing technical challenges in mobility management. The recently announced results from an LTE field test conducted in a dense urban area show a handover failure (HOF) rate of over 21%. A major cause of HOFs is the transmission failure of handover command (HO CMD) messages. In this paper, we propose two enhancements to HO performance in LTE networks - radio link failure-proactive HO, which helps with the reliable transmission of HO CMD messages while the user equipment is under a poor radio link condition, and Early Handover Preparation with Ping-Pong Avoidance (EHOPPPA) HO, which assures reliable transmission of HO CMD under a good radio link condition. We analyze the HO performance of EHOPPPA HO theoretically, and perform simulations to compare the performance of the proposed schemes with that of standard LTE HO. We show that they can decrease the HOF rate to nearly zero through an analysis, and based on the simulation results, by over 70%, without increasing the ping-pong probability.

The Stockpile Reliability of Propelling Charge for Performance and Storage Safety using Stochastic Process (확률과정론을 이용한 추진장약의 성능과 저장안전성에 관한 저장신뢰성평가)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.135-148
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: This paper presents a method to evaluate the stockpile reliability of propelling charge for performance and storage safety with storage time. Methods: We consider a performance failure level is the amount of muzzle velocity drop which is the maximum allowed standard deviation multiplied by 6. The lifetime for performance is estimated by non-linear regression analysis. The state failure level is assumed that the content of stabilizer is below 0.2%. Because the degradation of stabilizer with storage time has both distribution of state and distribution of lifetime, it must be evaluated by stochastic process method such as gamma process. Results: It is estimated that the lifetime for performance is 59 years. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of degradation. It is estimated that the average lifetime as $B_{50}$ life is 33 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve. Conclusion: The lifetime for storage safety is shorter than for performance and we must consider both the lifetime for storage safety and the lifetime performance because of variation of degradation rate.

A Service Life Prediction for Unsound Concrete Under Carbonation Through Probability of Durable Failure (탄산화에 노출된 콘크리트 취약부의 확률론적 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung Jun;Park, Sang Soon;Nam, Sang Hyeok;Lho, Byeong Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMIZATION OF AIRFOILS USING A MOMENT METHOD AND PARSEC FUNCTION (모멘트 기법과 PARSEC 함수를 이용한 에어포일 신뢰성 기반 최적설계)

  • Lee, J.;Kang, H.;Kwon, J.;Kwak, B.;Jung, K.
    • Journal of computational fluids engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the reliability-based design optimization of the airfoil was performed. PARSEC function was used to consider the uncertainty of the aerodynamic shape for the reliability-based shape optimization of airfoils. Among various reliability analysis methods, the moment method was used to compute the probability of failure of the aerodynamic performance. The accuracy of the reliability analysis was compared with other methods and it was found that the moment method predicts the probability of failure accurately. Deterministic and reliability-based optimizations were performed for the shape of the airfoil and it was demonstrated that reliability-based optimum assures the aerodynamic performances under uncertainties of the shape of the airfoil.

Earthquake Resistant Design of Steel Box Bridges considering Failure Mechanism (파괴메카니즘을 고려한 강박스교량의 내진설계)

  • 국승규;이동휘
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.330-337
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    • 2002
  • The objective of the earthquake resistant design of structures is to satisfy on the one side the minimization of damage requirement under earthquakes with high probability of occurrence during the design life and on the other side the no collapse requirement under the design seismic event with low probability of occurrence. The two requirements are satisfied with the minimum strength of substructure as well as the ductile failure mechanism presented in the codes. In this study seismic performance is evaluated with two bridges which have steel box superstructures and T type, II type piers as substructures. In order to satisfy the two requirements redesign of both substructures and steel bearings are carried out.

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