• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.179-186
• /
• 2020

Investigating damage potential of the railway infrastructure requires either large amount of case histories or in-depth numerical analyses, or both for which large amounts of effort and time are necessary to accomplish thoroughly. Rather than performing comprehensive studies for each damage case, in this study we collect and analyze a case history of the high-speed railway system damaged by the 2004 M6.6 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake for the development of the seismic fragility curve. The development processes are: 1) slice the railway system as 200 m segments and assigned damage levels and intensity measures (IMs) to each segment; 2) calculate probability of damage for a given IM; 3) estimate fragility curves using the maximum likelihood estimation regression method. Among IMs considered for fragility curves, spectral acceleration at 3 second period has the most prediction power for the probability of damage occurrence. Also, viaduct-type structure provides less scattered probability data points resulting in the best-fitted fragility curve, but for the tunnel-type structure data are poorly scattered for which fragility curve fitted is not meaningful. For validation purpose fragility curves developed are applied to the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake case history by which another high-speed railway system was damaged. The number of actual damaged segments by the 2016 event is 25, and the number of equivalent damaged segments predicted using fragility curve is 22.21. Both numbers are very similar indicating that the developed fragility curve fits well to the Kumamoto region. Comparing with railway fragility curves from HAZUS, we found that HAZUS fragility curves are more conservative.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.52 no.5
• /
• pp.1051-1065
• /
• 2020

Safety analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) especially in accident conditions is a basic and necessary issue for applications and commercialization of reactors. Many previous researches and development works have been conducted. However, most achievements focused on the safety reliability of primary pressure system vessels. Few literatures studied the structural safety of huge concrete structures surrounding primary pressure system, especially for the fourth generation NPP which allows existing of through cracks. In this paper, structural safety reliability of concrete structures of HTR-PM in accidental double-ended break of hot gas ducts was studied by Exceedance Probability Method. It was calculated by Monte Carlo approaches applying numerical simulations by Abaqus. Damage parameters were proposed and used to define the property of concrete, which can perfectly describe the crack state of concrete structures. Calculation results indicated that functional failure determined by deterministic safety analysis was decided by the crack resistance capability of containment buildings, whereas the bearing capacity of concrete structures possess a high safety margin. The failure probability of concrete structures during an accident of double-ended break of hot gas ducts will be 31.18%. Adding the consideration the contingency occurrence probability of the accident, probability of functional failure is sufficiently low.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.411-418
• /
• 2007

It is a very difficult thing to estimate an occurrence possibility location and hazard expectation area by landslide. The prediction difficulty of landslide occurrence has relativity in factor of various geological physical factors and contributions. However, estimation of landslide occurrence possibility and classification of hazard area became available correlation mechanism through analysis of landslide occurrence through landslide data analysis and statistical analysis. This study analyzed a damage possibility of a cultual heritage area due to landslide occurrence by a heavy rainfall. We make a landslide prediction map and tried to analysis of landslide occurrence possibility for the cultural heritage site. The study area chooses a temple of Silsang-Sa Baekjang-Am site and made a landslide prediction map. In landslide prediction map, landslide hazard possibility area expressed by occurrence probability and divided by each of probability degrees. This degree used to evaluate occurrence possibility for existence and nonexistence of landslide in the study site. For the prediction and evaluation of landslide hazard for the cultural heritage site, investigation and analysis technique which is introduced in this study may contribute an efficient management and investigation in the cultural heritage site, Korea.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.431-441
• /
• 2014

The effects of hull-girder vibration on the fatigue strength of a Post-Panamax container ship are discussed in the present paper. Firstly, the short-term sea states are categorized according to the occurrence probability of each sea state. Time histories of hull-girder stress in short-term sea states are calculated by means of a nonlinear simulation code of ship response assuming that the hull-girder is rigid and flexible. Then, the calculated stress peaks are processed by the rainflow counting method, where two different counting procedures are used based on the considerations of crack propagation behaviors. Finally, the fatigue damage in life time of the ship in each categorized short-term sea state is estimated by means of Miner's rule. Based on the calculated results, the effects of hull-girder vibrations on the fatigue damage are clarified by disaggregated damage from short-term sea state.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.29 no.5
• /
• pp.260-268
• /
• 2017

In this study, wind characteristics of a shipping container were investigated through the wind tunnel test (high-frequency force balance test), and damage occurrence velocities of various containers with weights were evaluated based on results of the wind tunnel tests. As a result, mean wind force coefficients acting on containers in x-direction increased in the order of 12ft, 20ft, 40ft and 40ft high cube. On the other hand, mean wind force coefficients at y-direction increased in the order of 40ft high cube, 40ft, 20ft and 12ft. It was suggested that the shear layer separated from the corner of windward surface of the container is reattached on the sides of it, and then the mean wind force coefficient is weaker. As a result of the damage occurrence velocity on containers with weights, it was found that the probability of occurrence of sliding is higher rather than that of overturning. Further, the most unfavorable container was 40ft high cube, and the sliding and overturning occurrence velocities were 20.4 m/s and 26.8 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, the regression formula for sliding and overturing occurrence velocitys were proposed based on the results of relationship between weights of containers and damage occurrence velocities. These results are expected to be useful in establishing a guideline for external force estimation acting on container securing equipment and stacking way.

• Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
• /
• v.33 no.8
• /
• pp.524-535
• /
• 2006

With rapid development of Internet technology, business management in an organization or an enterprise depends on Internet-based technology for the most part. Furthermore, as dependency and cohesiveness of network in the communication facilities are increasing, cyber attacks have been increased against vulnerable resource in the information system. Hence, to protect private information and computer resource, research for damage propagation is required in this situation. However the proposed traditional models present just mechanism for risk management, or are able to be applied to the specified threats such as virus or worm. Therefore, we propose the probabilistic model of damage propagation based on the Markov process, which can be applied to diverse threats in the information systems. Using the proposed model in this paper, we can predict the occurrence probability and occurrence frequency for each threats in the entire system.

• Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.1 no.4
• /
• pp.239-251
• /
• 2015

In this study, a spectral fatigue analysis was performed for the topside structure of an offshore floating vessel. The topside structure was idealized using beam elements in the SACS program. The fatigue analysis was carried out considering the wave and wind loads separately. For the wave-induced fatigue damage calculation, motion RAOs calculated from a direct wave load analysis and regular waves with different periods and unit wave heights were utilized. Then, the member end force transfer functions were generated covering all the loading conditions. Stress response transfer functions at each joint were produced using the specified SCFs and member end force transfer functions. fatigue damages were calculated using the obtained stress ranges, S-N curve, wave spectrum, heading probability of each loading condition, and their corresponding occurrences in the wave scatter diagrams. For the wind induced fatigue damage calculation, a dynamic wind spectral fatigue analysis was performed. First, a dynamic natural frequency analysis was performed to generate the structural dynamic characteristics, including the eigenvalues (natural frequencies), eigenvectors (mode shapes), and mass matrix. To adequately represent the dynamic characteristic of the structure, the number of modes was appropriately determined in the lateral direction. Second, a wind spectral fatigue analysis was performed using the mode shapes and mass data obtained from the previous results. In this analysis, the Weibull distribution of the wind speed occurrence, occurrence probability in each direction, damping coefficient, S-N curves, and SCF of each joint were defined and used. In particular, the wind fatigue damages were calculated under the assumption that the stress ranges followed a Rayleigh distribution. The total fatigue damages were calculated from the combination with wind and wave fatigue damages according to the DNV rule.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.23 no.6
• /
• pp.575-585
• /
• 2020

In this numerical study, the 2D dynamic behavior of a clayey basin and its effect on damage pattern over basin edge are investigated. To attain this goal, a fully nonlinear time domain analysis method has been applied. Then, the fragility curves of the considered two typical industrial structures for that certain point are estimated using the acceleration time histories recorded at each surface point. The results show that the use of the damage related parameters in site effect analyses, instead of amplification curves, can yield more realistic estimation of the basin dynamic response. In a distance about 150 m from outcrop at the basin edge, the differences between fragility curves increase when increasing the distance from outcrop with respect to the reference rock site. Outside this region and towards the basin center, they tend to occur in rather single curves. Furthermore, to connect the structural damage to the basin edge effect, the earthquake demand value at different points for two typical structures was evaluated. It was seen that the probability of occurrence of damage increases over 250 m from outcrop, while the effect of the basin edge was limited to 150 m in case of the basin edge evaluation by using fragility curves.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.5 no.5
• /
• pp.607-624
• /
• 2013

In this study the seismic risk assessments of six- and twelve-story staggered wall system structures with three different structural variations were performed. The performances of staggered wall structures with added columns along the central corridor and the structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns were compared with those of the regular staggered wall structures. To this end incremental dynamic analyses were carried out using twenty two pairs of earthquake records to obtain the failure probabilities for various intensity of seismic load. The seismic risk for each damage state was computed based on the fragility analysis results and the probability of occurrence of earthquake ground motions. According to the analysis results, it was observed that the structures with added columns along the central corridor showed lowest probability of failure and seismic risk. The structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns showed lowest margin for safety.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.38 no.1
• /
• pp.18-24
• /
• 2023

Severe natural disasters and man-made attacks such as terrorism are causing unprecedented disruptions in power systems. Due to rapid climate change and the aging of energy infrastructure, both the frequency of failure and the level of damage are expected to increase. Resilience is a concept proposed to respond to extreme disaster events that have a low probability of occurrence but cause enormous damage and is defined as the ability of a system to recover to its original function after a disaster. Resilience is a comprehensive indicator that can include system performance before and after a disaster and focuses on preparing for all possible disaster scenarios and having quick and efficient recovery actions after an incident. Various studies have been conducted to evaluate resilience, but studies on economic damage considering the duration of a power outage are scarce. In this study, we propose an optimal algorithm that can identify failures after an extreme disaster and restore the load on the distribution system through emergency distributed power generation input and system reconfiguration. After that, the cost of power outage damage is analyzed by applying VoLL and CDF according to each restoration strategy.