• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.887-894
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• 2009

The two-stage minimum risk point estimation of mean, the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials, is considered for the case where loss is taken to be symmetrized relative squared error of estimation, plus a fixed cost per observation. First order asymptotic expansions are obtained for large sample properties of two-stage procedure. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the expected sample size that minimizes the risk and to examine its finite sample behavior.

• Proceedings of the Korean Powder Metallurgy Institute Conference
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• 2006.09a
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• pp.409-410
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• 2006

New applications for PM have resulted in a substantial market growth during the last decades. The clue to these components lies in the utilization of new powders and component production processes. In order to reduce development time and increase the probability for success it is essential to work in close cooperation within the whole chain from powder supplier to component supplier and component user.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1175-1182
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• 2011

In this paper, properties of exact confidence interval and some approximate confidence intervals of hyper-geometric parameter, that is the probability of success p in the population is discussed. Usually, binomial distribution is a well known discrete distribution with abundant usage. Hypergeometric distribution frequently replaces a binomial distribution when it is desirable to make allowance for the finiteness of the population size. For example, an application of the hypergeometric distribution arises in describing a probability model for the number of children attacked by an infectious disease, when a fixed number of them are exposed to it. Exact confidence interval estimation of hypergeometric parameter is reviewed. We consider the approximation of hypergeometirc distribution to the binomial and normal distribution respectively. Approximate confidence intervals based on these approximation are also adequately discussed. The performance of exact confidence interval estimates and approximate confidence intervals of hypergeometric parameter is compared in terms of actual coverage probability by small sample Monte Carlo simulation.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.168-177
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• 2016

A forecast model for estimating the infection risk of bacterial canker caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae on kiwifruit leaves in Korea was developed using the generic infection model of Magarey et al. (2005). Two-way contingency table analysis was carried out to evaluate accuracy of forecast models including the model developed in this study for estimating the infection of bacterial canker on kiwifruit using the weather and disease data collected from three kiwifruit orchards at Seogwipo in 2015. All the tested models had more than 80% of probability of detection indicating that all the tested models could be effective to manage the disease. The model developed in this study showed the highest values in proportion of correct (51.1%), probability of detection (90.9%), and critical success index (47.6%). It indicated that the model developed in this study would be the best model for estimating the infection of bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves in Korea. The model developed in this study could be used for a part of decision support system for managing bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves and help growers to reduce the loss caused by the disease in Korea.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.19-36
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• 2004

An experimental research investigated the components of lottery games affecting lottery-purchasing behaviors and the psychological consequences of the behaviors. In the experiment, participants were given a chance to purchase a lottery tickets during a series of computer games and their decision of purchasing the lottery ticket was measured. Also, the size and probability of the lottery games were manipulated and the perceived difficulty, satisfaction of the mid-outcome, and perceived probability of success in the computer game were measured in order to examine their impacts on participants' lottery-purchasing decisions. In addition, the behavioral tendency, satisfaction of the final outcome, and perceived self-capability in the computer game were measured at the end of the computer games in order to examine the effects of lottery-purchasing experiences on the variables. Participants who perceived the games as easier and estimated the probability of their success highly were more likely to buy the lottery tickets. However, the winning prize and odd of lottery tickets, perceived satisfaction of their own performance, and the performance itself did not influence the purchasing decisions. The common beliefs on the negative effects of lottery-purchasing experiences on human motivation and behaviors were not supported. The implications of the present research findings and limitations of the experimental research on lottery were discussed.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.77-100
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• 2014

Many researchers have analyzed the relationship between the financial success patterns of a motion picture and many other factors, such as the production cost, marketing, stars, awards, reviews, genre, and rating. Through these studies, many researchers and investors concluded that big budgets to make a blockbuster movie can serve as an insurance policy to meet their ROI; thus the box office is dominated by blockbuster movies. High-budget blockbuster movies are more likely to receive attention because these movies are more recognizable given their high expenses for production and casting. Therefore, audiences choose blockbusters in an effort to reduce the searching cost and to mitigate the possibility of a regrettable choice. This behavior of consumers, in turn, causes distributors to allocate screens for blockbusters, resulting in "concentration of blockbuster consumption." As such, low-budget films cannot easily become popular due to the lack of distribution. Indeed, low-budget films released on a small number of screens often end up becoming dismal failures. However, there are exceptional examples which are contrary to the general idea in the movie industry that a big budget and showings on a large number of screens can guarantee the success of a movie. Although researchers have attempted to analyze the performances of movies with small budgets, such movies are likely to be regarded as outliers and then be entirely discarded, as they are far from the 'three-sigma' range, especially given that previous research methodologies could not explain the financial success of such unique examples. This study attempts to explain the financial success at the box office of low-budget movies by applying the concept of the tunnel effect in quantum mechanics, as the phenomenon found in the movie industry is similar to a particle's movement in quantum physics. The tunneling effect is a phenomenon by which a particle without enough energy to pass over a potential barrier tunnels through it. Adopting the analogy, this study draws a tunneling probability function and cultural constant to forecast other outliers using the Schrödinger equation. Moreover, the study finds that word-of-mouth creates in the movie industry this phenomenon of finding outliers.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.853-863
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• 2010

The performance test in a public survey is conducted by a sample survey and the sampling rate of the performance test is a very important factor in the test process. Since the current sampling rate was decided empirically at an earlier time, it has been criticized for two points: the first is that it has a lack of a theoretical background on the decision for the sampling rate and the second is that the sampling rate should be improved in accordance with current test situations. In this paper, we review the present state of performance tests in public surveys in Korea and study the relationship between the rate of the performance test and fitness probability, number of tests, and the success rate in order to create a theoretical background to improve the test rate. In addition, we discuss relationship between the test rate and cost in the performance test.

• Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.65-80
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• 2020

This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.23-34
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• 2023

The purpose of this paper is to review global stochastic optimization algorithms(GSOA) in case binary response experimentation is used and to compare the performances of them. GSOAs utilise estimator of probability of success $\^p$ instead of population probability of success p, since p is unknown and only known by its estimator which has stochastic characteristics. Hill climbing algorithm algorithm, simple random search, random search with random restart, random optimization, simulated annealing and particle swarm algorithm as a population based algorithm are considered as global stochastic optimization algorithms. For the purpose of comparing the algorithms, two types of test functions(one is simple uni-modal the other is complex multi-modal) are proposed and Monte Carlo simulation study is done to measure the performances of the algorithms. All algorithms show similar performances for simple test function. Less greedy algorithms such as Random optimization with Random Restart and Simulated Annealing, Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) based on population show much better performances for complex multi-modal function.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.25-32
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• 2006

In this paper, we propose a fast correlation attack on the shrinking and self-shrinking generator. This attack is an improved algorithm or the fast correlation attack by Zhang et al. at CT-RSA 2005. For the shrinking generator, we recover the initial state of generating LFSR whose length is 61 with $2^{15.43}$ keystream bits, the computational complexity of $2^{56.3314}$ and success probability 99.9%. We also recover the initial state of generating LFSR whose length is $2^{40}$ of the self-shrinking generator with $2^{45.89}$ keystream bits, the computational complexity of $2^{112.424}$ and success probability 99.9%.