• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability of Success

검색결과 273건 처리시간 0.032초

DEVELOPMENT OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS MODEL FOR DEVELOPER-REQUESTED HOUSING PROJECTS

  • Young-Ki Huh;Bon-Gang Hwang;Joong-Seok Lee
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.847-855
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    • 2009
  • While many studies on feasibility analysis for housing projects have been released, the main focus was on economic feasibility and factors related to developers were not clearly identified enough to be used in practice. In order to establish a feasibility analysis model for apartment development projects requested by developers in Korea, 31 driving factors behind projects' success were identified under seven different categories. Criterions of the each factor were also developed, and weight of each factor was assigned by applying the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). Finally, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, the feasibility analysis model was established, providing probability distribution of project's grade. The model was applied to 12 housing projects to verify its reliability, and found that the model properly filtered projects that are unlikely to be profitable, indicating reasonable reliability of the model. The model can be a useful tool for contractors, especially with less experience in analyzing project development feasibility.

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WCDMA 시스템에서 셀 탐색의 단계별 직렬 처리 및 병렬 처리의 성능 비교 (Comparison of Performance of stepwise serial processing and stepwise parallel processing for Cell Search in WCDMA System)

  • 오호근;송문규
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전자공학회 2000년도 추계종합학술대회 논문집(1)
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    • pp.73-76
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    • 2000
  • We investigate the stepwise parallel processing of the serial search which can success the co]1 search at low Ec/Io. The single path Rayleigh fading channel which is worst-case channel model is considered. The typical 3-step cell search is used. The probabilities of detection, miss and false alarm for each step are used in closed forms based on the statistics of CDMA noncoherent demodulator output. The optimal power allocation to each channel and The optimal number of post-detection integrations for each step is obtained. Also, the cumulative probability distribution of the average eel] search time for serial search methods are compared.

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가설 검증과 칼만 필터를 이용한 격추평가 기법 연구 (A Kill-Assessment Technique Using Hypothesis Testing and Kalman Filter)

  • 김호정;이동관
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2006
  • The correct and opportune decision of reengaging the intercepted target is required in order to enhance the engagement performance of the surface to air missile systems that has the ability to defense or attack against various targets at the same time. The engagement efficiency and success of these systems will be largely enhanced by assigning quickly its system resources to the intercepted target and minimizing the waste of system resources for the target which is not able to attack any more. The kill-assessment algorithm has to be able to evaluate automatically whether various targets intercepted by missiles are killed or not on the basis of the reasonable confidence level. The definition of kill assessment is discussed and the kill assessment algorithm is designed reliably by using Kalman filter and a probability theory. Finally its performance is evaluated and analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

미세표면구조가 전자인쇄에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Micro Surface Structure on Printed Electronics)

  • 김승환;강현욱;이경헌;성현진
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제27권9호
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2010
  • The effect of micro surface structure on printing for printed electronics has been studied experimentally. The photolithography MEMS fabricationwass used to make a SU-8 molder which has micro structures on the surface, and the PDMS micro structure was fabricated by the PDMS molding method. In the aspect of printed electronics, we used silver paste conductive ink. We measured the surface energy variation on pillar microstructure. The microstructure was used to real printing experiment by a screen printing. We printed 1cm micro lines which have $30{\sim}250{\mu}m$ width, and checked the conductivity to sort out opened line pattern. Printability was defined by success probability of printed patterns and we found that the present microstructures improve the printability significantly.

척수신경 장애자의 성적기능 조사 및 성 재활

  • 박지환
    • 대한물리치료사협회지
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    • 통권3호
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 1981
  • The Sexual Function Study and Its Rehabilitation Of the Patients With Spinal Cord Injuries Park Ji Whan, R.P.T. Dept. of Rehabilitation Medicine, nanyang University Hospital The patient with complete spinal cord injuries cannot expect normal intercourse. In spite of these ultimate limitations. coitus is practied with gratification by about a third of paraplegic men. and probably a higher percentage of paraplegic women. Th-is is possible since a significant percentage of paraplegic men can have erections .In patients with upper motor neurone lesions at any spinal level, reflex erections can be produced by local stimulation , in. patients with lesions at higher levels, the probability of success is greater. The ability to have erections, psychic or reflex or both, usually appears within six months after injury .

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추계적 EVMS 기반 예비비 산정 방법론 (Contingency Estimation Method based on Stochastic Earned Value Management System)

  • 곽한성;최병윤;이창용;이동은
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.72-73
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    • 2018
  • The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its' estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.

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작은 샘플 크기의 One-shot Devices를 위한 베이지안 신뢰도 추정 (Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Small Sample-Sized One-shot Devices)

  • 문병민;선은주;배석주
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2013
  • One-shot device is required to successfully perform its function only once at the moment of use. The reliability of a one-shot device should be expressed as a probability of success. In this paper, we propose a bayesian approach for estimating reliability of one-shot devices with small sample size. We employ a gamma prior to obtain the posterior distribution. Finally, we compare the accuracy of the proposed method with general maximum likelihood method.

Performance Enhancement of IEEE 802.15.3 MAC for Simultaneously Operating Piconets

  • 설붕;공붕;김덕경
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제32권1A호
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2007
  • In the IEEE 802.15.3 Medium Access Control (MAC) protocol, Simultaneously Operating Piconets (SOPs) are linked by the parent/child (P/C) or parent/neighbor (P/N) configuration, which work on a Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) basis. This provides interference mitigation but the overall throughput is limited because the SOPs share the channel time exclusively. The protocol is not efficient for SOPs if we focus on the combination of interference mitigation and high throughput maintenance. In this paper Public Channel Time Allocation (Public CTA) is proposed, which is able to greatly reduce the inter-piconet interference (IPI) and achieve greater throughput without much loss of link success probability (LSP) in the SOPs. The simulation results based on the SOPs of Direct Sequence Ultra Wideband (DS-UWB) system demonstrate that the proposed scheme effectively supports the coexistence of SOPs, and it can not only significantly improve the overall throughput of SOPs but also maintain high LSP.

순차 검증과 자료융합을 이용한 수중 표적 판별 (Underwater Target Discrimination using Sequential Testings and Data Fusion)

  • 곽은주
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1998년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.657-659
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    • 1998
  • In this paper we discuss an algorithm to discriminate a target under track against multiple acoustic counter-measure (ACM) sources, based on sequential testings of multiple hypotheses. The ACM sources are separated from the target under track and generate, while drifting, measurements with false range and Doppler information. The purpose of the ACM is to mislead the target tracking and to help the true target evade a pursuer. The proposed algorithm uses as a test statistic a function of both the sequences of processed waveform signature and the innovation sequences from extended Kalman filters to estimate the target dynamics and the drifting positions of the ACM sources. Numerical experiments on various scenarios show that the proposed algorithm discriminates the target faster with a higher probability of success than the algorithm using only the innovation sequences from extended Kalman filters.

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우주발사체 개발사업의 위험관리 프로세스 (A Process of the Risk Management for a Space Launch Vehicle R&D Project)

  • 조동현;유일상
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2016
  • Many countries concentrated on the space developments to enhance the national security and the people's quality of life. A space launch vehicle for accessing the space is a typical large complex system that is composed of the high-technology like high-performance, high-reliability, superhigh-pressure, etc. The project developing large complex system like space launcher is mostly conducted in the uncertain environment. To achieve a goal of the project, its success probability should be enhanced consistently by reducing its uncertainty during the life cycle: it's possible to reduce the project's uncertainty by performing the risk management (RM) that is a method for identifying and tracing potential risk factors in order to eliminate the risks of the project. In this paper, we introduce the risk management (RM) process applied for a Space Launch Vehicle R&D Project.