• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability of Error

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Human Error Probability Determination in Blasting Process of Ore Mine Using a Hybrid of HEART and Best-Worst Methods

  • Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei;Mohammadfam, Iraj;Soltanian, Ali Reza;Najafi, Kamran
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.326-335
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    • 2022
  • Background: One of the important actions for enhancing human reliability in any industry is assessing human error probability (HEP). The HEART technique is a robust tool for calculating HEP in various industries. The traditional HEART has some weaknesses due to expert judgment. For these reasons, a hybrid model is presented in this study to integrate HEART with Best-Worst Method. Materials Method: In this study, the blasting process in an iron ore mine was investigated as a case study. The proposed HEART-BWM was used to increase the sensitivity of APOA calculation. Then the HEP was calculated using conventional HEART formula. A consistency ratio was calculated using BWM. Finally, for verification of the HEART-BWM, HEP calculation was done by traditional HEART and HEART-BWM. Results: In the view of determined HEPs, the results showed that the mean of HEP in the blasting of the iron ore process was 2.57E-01. Checking the full blast of all the holes after the blasting sub-task was the most dangerous task due to the highest HEP value, and it was found 9.646E-01. On the other side, obtaining a permit to receive and transport materials was the most reliable task, and the HEP was 8.54E-04. Conclusion: The results showed a good consistency for the proposed technique. Comparing the two techniques confirmed that the BWM makes the traditional HEART faster and more reliable by performing the basic comparisons.

Novel approach to predicting the release probability when applying the MARSSIM statistical test to a survey unit with a specific residual radioactivity distribution based on Monte Carlo simulation

  • Chun, Ga Hyun;Cheong, Jae Hak
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.1606-1615
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    • 2022
  • For investigating whether the MARSSIM nonparametric test has sufficient statistical power when a site has a specific contamination distribution before conducting a final status survey (FSS), a novel approach was proposed to predict the release probability of the site. Five distributions were assumed: lognormal distribution, normal distribution, maximum extreme value distribution, minimum extreme value distribution, and uniform distribution. Hypothetical radioactivity populations were generated for each distribution, and Sign tests were performed to predict the release probabilities after extracting samples using Monte Carlo simulations. The designed Type I error (0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) was always satisfied for all distributions, while the designed Type II error (0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) was not always met for the uniform, maximum extreme value, and lognormal distributions. Through detailed analyses for lognormal and normal distributions which are often found for contaminants in actual environmental or soil samples, it was found that a greater statistical power was obtained from survey units with normal distribution than with lognormal distribution. This study is expected to contribute to achieving the designed decision error when the contamination distribution of a survey unit is identified, by predicting whether the survey unit passes the statistical test before undertaking the FSS according to MARSSIM.

Error Probability Analysis for the Initial Acquisition Using Sum Differential Correlation Methods (합산 차등 상관 방식을 활용하는 초기 동기 획득 시의 오율 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Tae;Kim, Jae-Won;Chang, Dae-Ig;Kim, Pan-Soo;Sung, Won-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.12C
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    • pp.983-990
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    • 2008
  • In communication systems, initial acquisition is required for the reliable transmission performance, and the analysis of the acquisition performance over various communication environments including different signal-to-noise ratios plays an important role in communication system design. Usage of differential correlation methods in initial synchronization procedure is desired when frequency offsets exist, and additional performance improvement can be achieved through proper modifications of conventional correlation schemes. In this paper, we derive the error probability of the initial acquisition and express it in terms of the Marcum Q-function, via statistical modeling of the differential correlator output. The result is generalized to the error probabilities of the extended differential correlation methods using the complex- and magnitude-sum of the correlator outputs. The derived probabilities can be applied for the acquisition performance verification of various communication systems including the DVB-S2 standard.

Performance Analysis of Decode-and-Forward Relaying Based on Optimal Relay Selection (디코딩 후 전달방식에서 최적의 중계노드 선택방법에 대한 링크레벨 성능분석)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Kim, Dong-Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1A
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    • pp.36-43
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we propose an optimal relay selection scheme for decode-and-forward relaying systems. The optimal relay selection minimizes the number of time slots used to relay source's signal and maximizes an end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio. However, decode-and-forward relaying systems require additional overhead for the optimal relay selection. Assuming independent and identically distributed Rayleigh fading channels, we provide exact and closed-form expressions for the outage probability of capacity and the bit error rate for decode-and-forward relaying systems with the optimal relay selection. It is shown that the analytic results are perfectly matched with the simulated ones. When the numbers of relay nodes are 2, 4, and 8, and the numbers of time slots for overhead are 1, 2, and 4, respectively, the proposed system achieves 1 dB, 2 dB, and 3 dB gains at 1% bit error rate, respectively, and 0.5 dB, 4 dB, and 12 dB gains at 1% outage probability for 1 bps/Hz, respectively, over the conventional decode-and-forward relaying system.

The Utilization of Local Document Information to Improve Statistical Context-Sensitive Spelling Error Correction (통계적 문맥의존 철자오류 교정 기법의 향상을 위한 지역적 문서 정보의 활용)

  • Lee, Jung-Hun;Kim, Minho;Kwon, Hyuk-Chul
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.446-451
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    • 2017
  • The statistical context-sensitive spelling correction technique in this thesis is based upon Shannon's noisy channel model. The interpolation method is used for the improvement of the correction method proposed in the paper, and the general interpolation method is to fill the middle value of the probability by (N-1)-gram and (N-2)-gram. This method is based upon the same statistical corpus. In the proposed method, interpolation is performed using the frequency information between the statistical corpus and the correction document. The advantages of using frequency of correction documents are twofold. First, the probability of the coined word existing only in the correction document can be obtained. Second, even if there are two correction candidates with ambiguous probability values, the ambiguity is solved by correcting them by referring to the correction document. The method proposed in this thesis showed better precision and recall than the existing correction model.

Performance of SC-FDE System in UWB Communications with Imperfect Channel Estimation

  • Wang, Yue;Dong, Xiaodai
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.466-472
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    • 2007
  • Single carrier block transmission with frequency domain equalization(SC-FDE) has been shown to be a promising candidate in ultra-wideband(UWB) communications. In this paper, we analyze the performance of SC-FDE over UWB communications with channel estimation error. The probability density functions of the frequency domain minimum mean-squared error(MMSE) equalizer taps are derived in closed form. The error probabilities of single carrier block transmission with frequency domain MMSE equalization under imperfect channel estimation are presented and evaluated numerically. Compared with the simulation results, our semi-analytical analysis yields fairly accurate bit error rate performance, thus validating the use of the Gaussian approximation method in the performance analysis of the SC-FDE system with channel estimation error.

Analysis of Link Error Effects in MANET Address Autoconfiguration Protocols

  • Kim, Sang-Chul;Chung, Jong-Moon
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.84-93
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    • 2009
  • This paper focuses on message complexity performance analysis of mobile ad hoc network (MANET) address autoconfiguration protocols (AAPs) in reference to link errors generated by mobile wireless nodes. An enhancement was made using a proposed retransmission limit, S, to be computed for error recovery (based on the link error probability), to measure message complexity of AAPs in reference to the link error probability, $P_e$. The control procedures for the retransmission limit have been included for each of the AAPs. Retransmission limit control is critical for efficient energy consumption of MANET nodes operating on limited portable energy. O-notation has been applied to analyze the upper bound of the number of messages generated by a MANET group of nodes. The AAPs investigated in this paper are strong duplicate address detection (DAD), weak DAD with proactive routing protocol (WDP), weak DAD with on-demand routing protocol (WDO), and MANETConf. Each AAP reacts different to link errors, as each AAP has different operational procedures. The required number of broadcasting, unicasting, relaying, and received messages of the nodes participating in a single-node joining procedure is investigated to asymptotically calculate the message complexity of each AAP. Computer simulation was conducted and the results have been analyzed to verify the theoretical message complexity bounds derived. The message complexity of WDP was lowest, closely followed byWDO, based on the simulation results and analysis of the message complexity under nominal situations. The message complexity of MANETConf was higher than WDO, and strong DAD resulted to be most complex among the four AAPs.

Blind Signal Processing for Medical Sensing Systems with Optical-Fiber Signal Transmission

  • Kim, Namyong;Byun, Hyung-Gi
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2014
  • In many medical image devices, dc noise often prevents normal diagnosis. In wireless capsule endoscopy systems, multipath fading through indoor wireless links induces inter-symbol interference (ISI) and indoor electric devices generate impulsive noise in the received signal. Moreover, dc noise, ISI, and impulsive noise are also found in optical fiber communication that can be used in remote medical diagnosis. In this paper, a blind signal processing method based on the biased probability density functions of constant modulus error that is robust to those problems that can cause error propagation in decision feedback (DF) methods is presented. Based on this property of robustness to error propagation, a DF version of the method is proposed. In the simulation for the impulse response of optical fiber channels having slowly varying dc noise and impulsive noise, the proposed DF method yields a performance enhancement of approximately 10 dB in mean squared error over its linear counterpart.

Performances of wireless ATM cell transmission with partial concatenated coding (무선 ATM셀 전송을 위한 부분 연쇄 부호화 기법의 성능분석)

  • 이진호;김태중;이동도;안재영;황금찬
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.2014-2026
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, the performances of wireless asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) cell transmission in mobile work are analyzed. We adopt 16Star QAM as amodulation technique in wireless channel and considered Reed-Solomon, convolutional, and concatenated coding to improve the error rate performances, and also proposed the Partial Concatenated Coding (PCC) technique as UEP(unequal error protection) code for efficient transmission of ATM cell in the air interface. We consider Doppler's effect, Rician fading, and diversity technique of maximal-ratio combining (MRC) for mobile channel model. For performance measure, we analyze bit error rate, ATM cell loss probability, ATM cell error probability, and network performances of ATM cell transmission delay and throughput. The numerical results show that the adoption of PCC is a prospective way for the evolution of future wireless ATM network on mobile environment.

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Bayesian Analysis for the Error Variance in a Two-Way Mixed-Effects ANOVA Model Using Noninformative Priors (무정보 사전분포를 이용한 이원배치 혼합효과 분산분석모형에서 오차분산에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • 장인홍;김병휘
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2002
  • We consider the problem of estimating the error variance of in a two-way mixed-effects ANOVA model using noninformative priors. First, we derive Jeffreys' prior, a reference prior, and matching priors. We then provide marginal posterior distributions under those noninformative priors. Finally, we provide graphs of marginal posterior densities of the error variance and credible intervals for the error variance in two real data set and compare these credible intervals.