• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Area

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A Study on Safety Impacts for VMS Traffic Information (VMS 교통정보의 교통안전효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Cho, Hye Jin
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 2015
  • Recently ITS have been increasingly applied on the roads to resolve traffic problems. Especially, Variable Message Sign (VMS), which is the one of ITS for traffic management and traffic safety, can be used for providing information about road conditions, climate conditions. In this study, data acquisition and statistical analysis were conducted for estimating safety impacts of providing traffic information through VMS. As a result of analyzing traffic characteristics before and after providing traffic information through VMS, average travel speed was decreased and vehicles tended to drive on centerline of lanes in 1st and 2nd lane after providing traffic information through VMS. Also, in order to analyze safety impacts of provided VMS traffic information, traffic safety hazard zone was established in each lane and probability distributions of passing traffic on the study area was estimated through Anderson-Darling Test. As a result of this, safety impacts of VMS traffic information in 1st lane could, on average, increase in left and right side of the lane by 0.69% and 7.07%, respectively. In case of 2nd lane, safety impacts could, on average, increase in left and right side of the lane by 2.71% and 0.02%, respectively.

Maximum tolerated dose estimations using various stopping rules in phase I clinical trial (제 1상 임상시험에서 다양한 멈춤 규칙을 이용한 최대허용용량 추정법)

  • Jeon, Soyoung;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.251-263
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    • 2022
  • Phase I clinical trial is called 'Dose finding study'. It is first step of experimenting on humans with new drugs developed through animal experiments or vitro experiments. The important area of interest in designing Phase I clinical trial is determining the dose that acceptable level to the patients and provides the greatest efficacy. In this paper, we explain about methods to determine the maximum tolerated dose using various stopping rules. The SM3, NM, Rim, J3, BSM methods are compared through simulation. And we consider how the methods might be reformed. As a result of the simulation, BSM estimated the MTD closest to the target toxicity probability. J3 method required the least number of subjects. These results are due to the feature of the stopping rules of both methods. The BSM adds 2 or 1 subject at the same dose level when there is a toxic reaction. In addition, the J3 method has a smaller number of subjects than the other methods. If the methods are improved by combining these features, MTD can be estimated more efficiently. If the total number of subjects can be reduced while using the stopping rule of the BSM, accurate estimation is possible for a small number of subjects.

Steganalysis Using Histogram Characteristic and Statistical Moments of Wavelet Subbands (웨이블릿 부대역의 히스토그램 특성과 통계적 모멘트를 이용한 스테그분석)

  • Hyun, Seung-Hwa;Park, Tae-Hee;Kim, Young-In;Kim, Yoo-Shin;Eom, Il-Kyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we present a universal steganalysis scheme. The proposed method extract features of two types. First feature set is extracted from histogram characteristic of the wavelet subbands. Second feature set is determined by statistical moments of wavelet characteristic functions. 3-level wavelet decomposition is performed for stego image and cover image using the Haar wavelet basis. We extract one features from 9 high frequency subbands of 12 subbands. The number of second features is 39. We use total 48 features for steganalysis. Multi layer perceptron(MLP) is applied as classifier to distinguish between cover images and stego images. To evaluate the proposed steganalysis method, we use the CorelDraw image database. We test the performance of our proposed steganalysis method over LSB method, spread spectrum data hiding method, blind spread spectrum data hiding method and F5 data hiding method. The proposed method outperforms the previous methods in sensitivity, specificity, error rate and area under ROC curve, etc.

Drought Index Development for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in a Catchment (집수역 내 농업가뭄 감시를 위한 가뭄지수 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2014
  • Drought index can be used to implement an early warning system for drought and to operate a drought monitoring service. In this study, an approach was examined to determine agricultural drought index (ADI) at high spatial resolution, e.g., 270 m. The value of ADI was calculated based on soil water balance between supply and demand of water. Water supply is calculated by the cumulative effective precipitation with the application of the weight to the precipitation from two months ago. Water demand is derived from the actual evapotranspiration, which was calculated applying a crop coefficient to the reference evapotranspiration. The amount of surface runoff on a given soil type was also used to calculate soil residual moisture. Presence of drought was determined based on the probability distribution in the given area. In order to assess the reliability of this index, the amount of residual moisture, which represents severity of drought, was compared with measurements of soil moisture at three experimental between July 2012 and December 2013. As a result, the ADI had greater correlation with measured soil moisture compared with the standardized precipitation index, which suggested that the ADI would be useful for drought warning services.

Comparison of Sediment Disaster Risk Depending on Bedrock using LSMAP (LSMAP을 활용한 기반암별 토사재해 위험도 비교)

  • Choi, Won-il;Choi, Eun-hwa;Jeon, Seong-kon
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2017
  • For the purpose of the study, of the 76 areas subject to preliminary concentrated management on sediment disaster in the downtown area, 9 areas were selected as research areas. They were classified into three stratified rock areas (Gyeongsan City, Goheung-gun and Daegu Metropolitan City), three igneous rock areas (Daejeon City, Sejong Special Self-Governing City and Wonju City) and three metamorphic rock areas (Namyangju City, Uiwang City and Inje District) according to the characteristics of the bedrock in the research areas. As for the 9 areas, analyses were conducted based on tests required to calculate soil characteristics, a predictive model for root adhesive power, loading of trees and on-the-spot research. As for a rainfall scenario (rainfall intensity), the probability of rainfall was applied as offered by APEC Climate Center (APCC) in Busan. As for the prediction of landslide risks in the 9 areas, TRIGRS and LSMAP were applied. As a result of TRIGRIS prediction, the risk rate was recorded 30.45% in stratified rock areas, 41.03% in igneous rock areas and 45.04% in metamorphic rock areas on average. As a result of LSMAP prediction based on root cohesion and the weight of trees according to crown density, it turned out to a 1.34% risk rate in the stratified rock areas, 2.76% in the igneous rock areas and 1.64% in the metamorphic rock areas. Analysis through LSMAP was considered to be relatively local predictive rather than analysis using TRIGRS.

An Analysis of Statistics Chapter of the Grade 7's Current Textbook in View of the Distribution Concepts (중학교 1학년 통계단원에 나타난 분포개념에 관한 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Choi, Ji-An
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.407-434
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    • 2008
  • This research is to analyze the descriptions in the statistic chapter of the grade 7's current textbooks. The analysis is based on the distribution concepts suggested by Nam(2007). Thus we assumed that the goal of this statistic chapter is to establish concepts on the distributions and to learn ways of communication and comparison through distributional presentations. What we learned and wanted to suggest through the study is the followings. 1) Students are to learn what the distribution is and what are not. 2) Every kinds of presentational form of distributions is to given its own right to learn so that students are more encouraged to learn them and use them more adequately. 3) Density histogram is to be introduced to extend student's experiences viewing an area as 3 relative frequency, which is later to be progressed into a probability density. 4) Comparison of two distributions, especially through frequency polygons, is to be an hot issue among educational stakeholder whether to include or not. It is very important when stochastic correlations be learned, because it is nothing but a comparison between conditional distributions. 5) Statistical literacy is also an important issue for student's daily life. Especially the process ahead of the data collection must be introduced so that students acknowledge the importance of accurate and object-oriented data.

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The Significance Test on the AHP-based Alternative Evaluation: An Application of Non-Parametric Statistical Method (AHP를 이용한 대안 평가의 유의성 분석: 비모수적 통계 검정 적용)

  • Park, Joonsoo;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.15-35
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    • 2017
  • The method of weighted sum of evaluation using AHP is widely used in feasibility analysis and alternative selection. Final scores are given in forms of weighted sums and the alternative with largest score is selected. With two alternatives, as in feasibility analysis, the final score greater than 0.5 gives the selection but there remains a question that how large is large enough. KDI suggested a concept of 'grey area' where scores are between 0.45 and 0.55 in which decisions are to be made with caution, but it lacks theoretical background. Statistical testing was introduced to answer the question in some studies. It was assumed some kinds of probability distribution, but did not give the validity on them. We examine the various cases of weighted sum of evaluation score and show why the statistical testing has to be introduced. We suggest a non-parametric testing procedure which does not assume a specific distribution. A case study is conducted to analyze the validity of our suggested testing procedure. We conclude our study with remarks on the implication of analysis and the future way of research development.

A Study on the Properties of Foamed Concrete with Plaster Using the Experimental Design (실험계획법을 이용한 석고 혼입 기포콘크리트의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-An;Kim, Wha-Jung;Yoon, Sang-Chun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.130-137
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    • 2013
  • This research was performed through the experimental design to get the statistical analysis on foamed concrete mixed plaster with hydrogen peroxide. In this experiment, we set the ratio of each material, which part of lightweight concrete, as experimental factors and evaluated on the mechanical properties by statistical analysis for response variables obtained from experiments. Experimental factors are plaster replacement, water binder ratio, and hydrogen peroxide ratio. Response variables are dry density, compressive strength, and flexural strength. Mixing design of the foamed concrete set up a total of 15 experimental points by Box-Behnken (BB) method of the response surface analysis. Thus, the results of a study were summarized as follows. Values of the probability in experimental factors (plaster replacement, water binder ratio and hydrogen peroxide ratio) on the response variables were estimated to be significant at the 95% of confidence limit. On response surface analysis for dry density of foamed concrete, water binder ratio and hydrogen peroxide ratio were estimated to be significant (${\alpha}$ = 0.05), and the relationship between the amount of void and the water content for dry density is inverse proportional. On response surface analysis for the compressive strength of foamed concrete, water binder ratio, hydrogen peroxide ratio and (hydrogen peroxide ratio)$^2$ was estimated to be significant (${\alpha}$ = 0.05). On response surface analysis for the flexural strength of foamed concrete, water binder ratio, hydrogen peroxide ratio was estimated to be significant (${\alpha}$ = 0.05). Through multi response surface analysis, we found the optimal area that meets performance goals.

Business Ecosystem-focused Commercialization Strategy for Real-time Monitoring and Detection Technology for Landslides (실시간 산사태 모니터링 및 탐지기술에 대한 비즈니스 생태계 기반 기술사업화 전략 연구)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Lim, Dong-Hyun;Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2016
  • This study establishes a commercialization strategy for technology that can monitor and detect landslides in real time. An effective commercialization strategy was sought through both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative analysis considered the business environment in detail, while the quantitative analysis examined technologically strong and weak areas by visualizing the links between IPC (International Patent Classification) code structure and patent applicants. The results from both analyses are considered together, with particular attention paid to the business environment. The resulting integrated analysis comprehensively explores the degree of technological development and the current state of real-time monitoring and detection technology for landslides. The integrated analysis identified complementary assets in the business environment, as there is strong development and many research entities in this area. This suggests positive reinforcement for commercialization with two sub-strategies: (1) exploring demand with complementary assets, and (2) providing technology information for explored demand, which should facilitate successful commercialization. Exploiting this positive reinforcement for technology commercialization could reduce the high uncertainty of the technology and the market, and thus increase the probability of successful commercialization. It is also expected to contribute to long-term success by strengthening collaboration between the supply and demand sides.

A Study on Management of Student Retention Rate Using Association Rule Mining (연관관계 규칙을 이용한 학생 유지율 관리 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Man;Lee, Dong-Cheol
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2018
  • Currently, there are many problems due to the decline in school-age population. Moreover, Korea has the largest number of universities compared to the population, and the university enrollment rate is also the highest in the world. As a result, the minimum student retention rate required for the survival of each university is becoming increasingly important. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of reducing the number of graduates of education and the social climate that prioritizes employment. And to determine what the basic direction is for students to manage the student retention rate, which can be maintained from admission to graduation, to determine the optimal input variables, Based on the input parameters, we will make associative analysis using apriori algorithm to collect training data that is most suitable for maintenance rate management and make base data for development of the most efficient Deep Learning module based on it. The accuracy of Deep Learning was 75%, which is a measure of graduation using decision trees. In decision tree, factors that determine whether to graduate are graduated from general high school and students who are female and high in residence in urban area have high probability of graduation. As a result, the Deep Learning module developed rather than the decision tree was identified as a model for evaluating the graduation of students more efficiently.