• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.360-373
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• 2017

The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.90 no.3
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• pp.380-387
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• 2001

The characteristics of ecological niche, breadth and overlap, for seventeen major tree species were evaluated in the natural deciduous forest in Mt. Chumbong area. Employed by the plot sampling method, the environmental gradient for vertical niche was based on the intensity of light within the forest, and that for horizontal niche was based on multi-dimensional resources in distribution pattern. The result showed that Fraxinus rhynchophylla had the highest value of vertical niche breadth and Maackia amurensis had the lowest, and Acer pseudo-sieboldianum had the highest value of horizontal niche breadth and Betula costata had the lowest. There was no significant correlation between both measures of niche breadth. However, the tolerance index for each species was positively correlated to the values of niche breadth. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were applied to test the correlationship between the species ranks of tolerance index and those of two ecological niche breadths. The coefficient of $r_s=0.432$ ($P{\leq}0.1$) was not enough to support significant correlationship between the tolerance index and vertical niche breadth at the 95% probability. If Carpinus cordata, rarely reach canopy of the forest due to its own growth form, are excluded from the analysis, coefficient was calculated as $r_s=0.650$ ($P{\leq}0.01$), resulting in highly significant correlationship. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was $r_s=0.797$ ($P{\leq}0.01$) for tolerance indices and the values of horizontal niche breadth, indicating highly significant. Four distinctive species groups, produced by cluster analysis on the basis of ecological niche overlap for each pair of species, were in considerable accord with the positively associated species constellation pattern created by the inter-species association analysis.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.31-41
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• 2004

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is one of the most common psychiatric disorders in childhood, especially school age children and persisting into adult. ADHD is affected 7.6% in our children, Korea. and persisting into $15{\sim}20%$ in adult. And it is characterized by hyperactivity, inattention and impulsivity. Brain imaging is one of way to diagnosis for ADHD. Brain imaging studies may be provide information two types - structural and functional imaging. Structural and functional images of the brain play an important role in management of neurologic and psyciatric disorders. Brain SPECT, with perfusion imaging radiopharmaceuticals is one of the appropriate test to diagnosis of neurologic and psychiatric diseases. Ther are a few studies about separated analysis between boys and girls ADHD SPECT brain images. Selection of Probability level(P-value) is very important to determind the abnormalities when analysis a data by SPM. SPM is a statistical method used for image analysis and determine statistical different between two groups-normal and ADHD. Commonly used P-value is P<0.05 in statistical analysis. The purpose of this study is to evaluation of blood flow clusters distribution, between boys and girls ADHD. The number of normal boys are 8(6-7y, average : $9.6{\pm}3.9y$) and 51(4-11y, average : $9.0{\pm}2.4$) ADHD patients, and normal girls are 4(6-12y, average : $9{\pm}2.4y$) and 13(2-13y, average $10{\pm}3.5y$) ADHD patiens. Blood flow tracer $^{99m}Tc-ethylcysteinate$ dimer(ECD) injected as rCBF agent and take blood flow images after 30 min. during sleeping by SPECT camera. The anatomical region of hyperperfusion of rCBF in boys ADHD group is posterior cingulate gyrus and hyperperfusion rate is 15.39-15.77% according to p-value. And girls ADHD group appears at posterior cerebellum, Lt. cerbral limbic lobe and Lt. Rt. cerebral temporal lobe. These areas hyperperfusion rate are 24.68-31.25%. Hypoperfusion areas in boys ADHD,s brain are Lt. cerebral insular gyrus, Lt. Rt. frontal lobe and mid-prefrontal lobe, these areas decresed blood flow as 15.21-15.64%. Girls ADHD decreased blood flow regions are Lt. cerebral insular gyrus, Lt. cerebral frontal and temporal lobe, Lt. Rt. lentiform nucleus and Lt. parietal lobe. And hypoperfusion rate is 30.57-30.85% in girls ADHD. The girls ADHD group's perfusion rate is more variable than boys. The studies about rCBF in ADHD, should be separate with boys and girls.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.157-170
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• 2008

Purpose: This prospective study was conducted to reveal the haematological index change by low level radiation exposure in radiological environment our hospital workers. Materials and Method: We gathered the cumulative dose by Thermoluminenscent Dosimeters (TLD) over 9-yr period and examined hematological index counts change (RBC, Hb, Platelet, WBC, Monocyte, Lymphocyte, Neutrophilic, Basophilic, Eosinophilic) both occupational workers and controls. Of a total 370 occupational workers and 335 controls were compared. Results: This analysis has led to the following general observations 1) The average cumulative dose in male and female were $9.65{\pm}15.2\;mSv$, $4.82{\pm}5.55\;mSv$ respectively. 2) In both male and female, there were very low relationship between occupation period and cumulative dose (r< ${\pm}0.25$). 3) Occupation period was more increased, in male, WBC counts decreased and increased workers, RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, WBC counts decreased and increased workers and W-eosino counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.01). 4) Cumulative dose was more increased, in male, W-Lympho counts decreased workers and Platelet counts deceased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, W-lympho counts decreased workers and RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). Conclusions: We can find some kinds of blood index abnormal distribution in occupational radiation workers by comparing with controls. Occupational workers cannot avoid radiation exposure, in spite of the control it. Actually low level radiation adverse effect occurred not dose but probability. So workers must always try to reduce exposure by ourselves, furthermore as long as possible the government should provide rapidly that national system on radiation control for worker's health.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.123-138
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• 1998

Characteristics of element responses of Panasonic UD802 personnel dosimeters in the X, ${\beta}$, ${\gamma}$, ${\gamma}/X$, ${\gamma}/{\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$/neutron mixed fields were assessed. A dose-response algorithm has been developed to decide the high probability of a radiation type and energy by using the distribution in all six ratios of the multi-element TLD. To calculate the 4-element response factors and ratios between the elements of the Panasonic TLDs in the X, $\beta$, and $\gamma$ radiation fields, Panasonic’s UD802 TLDs were irradiated with KINS’s reference irradiation facility. In the photon radiation field, this study confirms that element-3 (E3) and element-4 (E4) of the Panasonic TLDs show energy dependent both in low- and intermediate-energy range, while element-1 (E1) and element-2 (E2) show little energy dependency in the entire whole range. The algorithm, which was developed in this study, was applied to the Panasonic personnel dosimetry system with UD716AGL reader and UD802 TLDs. Performance tests of the algorithm developed was conducted according to the standards and criteria recommended in the ANSI N13.11. The sum of biases and standard deviations was less than 0.232. The values of biases and standard deviations are distributed within a triangle of a lateral value of 0.3 in the ordinate and abscissa, With the above algorithm, Panasonic TLDs satisfactorily perform optimum dose assessment even under an abnormal response of the TLD elements to the energy imparted. This algorithm can be applied to a more rigorous dose assessment by distinguishing an unexpected dose from the planned dose for the most practical purposes, and is useful in conducting an effective personnel dose control program.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.71-80
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• 2009

Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.559-592
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• 2012

In spite of the transitional changes in the shoe industry in Busan area, regular academic studies on the management plan to improve the practical competitiveness of footwear industry focused in the materials, bio-dynamics, components, and designs, etc. in the engineering viewpoint are very rare. Many reports of policies were published from late 190's to 2000's but they were limited to the identification of practical situations and the measures for strategic alternatives and were not developed to be the academic studies to improve the competitiveness in terms of management control. It is intended to seek for the measures to be reviewed as the alternatives to improve the self-competitiveness of footwear companies by approaching the problems limited to such specific area in the viewpoint of management control. The core of this study is to provide the alternative plans for expansion of the industrial foundation by seeking for the measures to improve competitiveness with application of knowledge management as an alternative for improvement of not transient but sustainable industrial competitiveness, in order to help the export of shoes from Busan area which has been rapidly increased since the Korea-USA FTA and Korea-EU FTA. In such viewpoint, in the study, a questionnaire survey was performed related with the issues of Busan's footwear industry and the plan to implement knowledge management was discussed for improvement of the competitiveness of footwear industry based on the result of such questionnaire survey. As most of studies and directions have been focused in functional shoes, designs, materials, and components, etc., which are related with the properties of human dynamics, as the alternatives for improvement of the footwear industry of Busan area and did not suggest the measures to make basic changes in the management of companies, the implementation of knowledge management was emphasized in order to seek for the direction of such plan. The purpose of this study is to suggest an alternative for construction of industrial eco-system for high added value by seeking for the probability of knowledge management for conversion of footwear industry into knowledge industry. In order to accomplish the effect of increased export as the result of FTA, current management method of footwear companies is limited and the effect of FTA should be maximized by improving the competitiveness with implementation of knowledge management methods. Settlement of such knowledge management will act as the momentum to improve the competitiveness of footwear companies and, in a long-term viewpoint, will be able to maximize the improvement of knowledge industry and creation of job opportunities.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.95-120
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• 1990

The underpricing of new shares of a firm that are offered to the public for the first time (initial offerings) is well known and has puzzled financial economists for a long time since it seems at odds with the optimal behavior of the owners of issuing firms. Past attempts by financial economists to explain this phenomenon have not been successful in the sense that the explanations given by them are either inconsistent with the equilibrium theory or implausible. Approaches by such authors as Welch or Allen and Faulhaber are no exceptions. In this paper, we develop a signalling model of capital investment to explain the underpricing phenomenon and also analyze the efficiency of investment. The model focuses on the information asymmetry between the owners of issuing firms and general investors. We consider a firm that has been owned and operated by a single owner and that has a profitable project but has no capital to develop it. The profit from the project depends on the capital invested in the project as well as a profitability parameter. The model also assumes that the financial market is represented by a single investor who maximizes the expected wealth. The owner has superior information as to the value of the firm to investors in the sense that it knows the true value of the parameter while investors have only a probability distribution about the parameter. The owner offers the representative investor a fraction of the ownership of the firm in return for a certain amount of investment in the firm. This offer condition is equivalent to the usual offer condition consisting of the number of issues to sell and the unit price of a share. Thus, the model is a signalling game. Using Kreps' criterion as the solution concept, we obtained an essentially unique separating equilibrium offer condition. Analysis of this separating equilibrium shows that the owner of the firm with high profitability chooses an offer condition that raises an amount of capital that is short of the amount that maximizes the potential profit from the project. It also reveals that the fraction of the ownership of the firm that the representative investor receives from the owner of the highly profitable firm in return for its investment has a value that exceeds the investment. In other words, the initial offering in the model is underpriced when the profitability of the firm is high. The source of underpricing and underinvestment is the signalling activity by the owner of the highly profitable firm who attempts to convince investors that his firm has a highly profitable project by choosing an offer condition that cannot be imitated by the owner of a firm with low profitability. Thus, we obtained two main results. First, underpricing is a result of a signalling activity by the owner of a firm with high profitability when there exists information asymmetry between the owner of the issuing firm and investors. Second, such information asymmetry also leads to underinvestment in a highly profitable project. Those results clearly show the underpricing entails underinvestment and that information asymmetry leads to a social cost as well as a private cost. The above results are quite general in the sense that they are based upon a neoclassical profit function and full rationality of economic agents. We believe that the results of this paper can be used as a basis for further research on the capital investment process. For instance, one can view the results of this paper as a subgame equilibrium in a larger game in which a firm chooses among diverse ways to raise capital. In addition, the method used in this paper can be used in analyzing a wide range of problems arising from information asymmetry that the Korean financial market faces.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

The Survey on the Industrial Research and Development(R&D) is the primary source of information on R&D performed by Korea industrial sector. The results of the survey are used to assess trends in R&D expenditures. Government agencies, corporations, and research organizations use the data to investigate productivity determinants, formulate tax policy, and compare individual company performance with industry averages. Recently, Korea Industrial Technology Association(KOITA) has collected the data by complete enumeration. Koita has, currently, considered sample survey because the number of R&D institutions in industry has been dramatically increased. This study develops survey design for the industrial research and development(R&D) statistics by introducing a sample survey. Companies are divided into 8 groups according to the amount of R&D expenditures and firm size or type. We collect the sample from 24 or 8 sampling strata and compare the results with those of complete enumeration survey. The estimates from 24 sampling strata are not significantly different to the results of complete enumeration survey. We propose the survey design as follows: Companies are divided into 11 groups including the companies of which R&D expenditures are unknown. All large companies are included in the survey and medium and small companies are sampled from 70% and 3%. Simple random sampling (SRS) is applied to the small company partition since they show uniform distribution in R&D expenditures. The independent probability proportionate to size (PPS) sampling procedure may be applied to those companies identified as 'not R&D performers'. When respondents do not provide the requested information, estimates for the missing data are made using imputation algorithms. In the future study, new key variables should be developed in survey questionnaires.

• Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.118-143
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• 2023

Space is becoming more commercialized. Despite of its delayed start-up, space activities in Korea are attracting more nation-wide supports from both investors and government. May 25, 2023, KSLV II, also called Nuri, successfully transported, and inserted seven satellites to a sun-synchronous orbit of 550 km altitude. However, Starlink has over 4,000 satellites around this altitude for its commercial activities. Hence, it is necessary for us to constantly monitor the collision risks of these satellites against resident space objects including Starlink. Here we report a quantitative research output regarding the conjunctions, particularly between the Nuri satellites and Starlink. Our calculation shows that, on average, three times everyday, the Nuri satellites encounter Starlink within 1 km distance with the probability of collision higher than 1.0E-5. A comparative study with KOMPSAT-5, also called Arirang-5, shows that its distance of closest approach distribution significantly differs from those of Nuri satellites. We also report a quantitative analysis of collision-avoiding maneuver cost of Starlink satellites and a strategy for Korea, being a delayed starter, to speed up to position itself in the space leading countries. We used the AstroOne program for analyses and compared its output with that of Socrates Plus of Celestrak. The two line element data was used for computation.