• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.127-137
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• 2000

Inchon Port is the second largest import-export port of Korea, and has the point at issue such as the excessive logistics cost because of the limits of handling capacity and the chronic demurrage. The purpose of this paper is to develop the simulation program as a long-term strategic support tool, considering the dual dock system and the TOC(Terminal Operation Company) system executed since March, 1997 in Inchon Port. The basic input parameters such as arrival intervals, cargo tons, service rates are analyzed and the probability density functions for these parameters are estimated. From the simulation model, it is possible to estimate the demurrage status through analyzing various scenarios and to establish the long-term port strategic plan.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.49-58
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• 2014

Natural disasters of large scale such as typhoon, heat waves and snow storm have recently been increased because of climate change according to global warming which is most likely caused by greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Increase of greenhouse gases concentration has caused the augmentation of earth's surface temperature, which raised the frequency of incidences of extreme weather in northern hemisphere. In this paper, we present spatial analysis of future typhoon genesis based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 scenario, which applied latest carbon dioxide concentration trend. For this analysis, we firstly calculated GPI using RCP 8.5 monthly data during 1982~2100. By spatially comparing the monthly averaged GPIs and typhoon genesis locations of 1982~2010, a probability density distribution(PDF) of the typhoon genesis was estimated. Then, we defined 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI and 0.15GPI based on the GPI ranges which are corresponding to probability densities of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, respectively. Based on the PDF-related GPIs, spatial distributions of probability on the typhoon genesis were estimated for the periods of 1982~2010, 2011~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100. Also, we analyzed area density using historical genesis points and spatial distributions. As the results, Philippines' east area corresponding to region of latitude $10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}$ shows high typhoon genesis probability in future. Using this result, we expect to estimate the potential region of typhoon genesis in the future and to develop the genesis model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.2A
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• pp.121-127
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• 2011

Spatial distribution of void space in concrete materials strongly affects mechanical and physical behaviors. Therefore, the identification of characteristic void distribution helps understand material properties and is essential to estimate the integrity of material performance. The 3D micro CT (X-ray microtomography) is implemented to examine and to quantify the void distribution of a lightweight aggregate concrete using an image analysis technique and probabilistic approach in this study. The binarization and subsequent stacking of 2D cross-sectional images virtually create 3D images of targeting void space. Then, probability distribution functions such as two-point correlation and lineal-path functions are applied for void characterization. The lightweight aggregates embedded within the concrete are individually analyzed to construct the intra-void space. Results shows that the low-order probability functions and the density distribution based on the 3D micro CT images are applicable and useful methodology to characterize spatial distribution of void space and constituents in concrete.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.765-775
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• 2012

The cross-validation is a popular method to select bandwidth in all types of kernel estimation. The maximum likelihood cross-validation, the least squares cross-validation and biased cross-validation have been proposed for bandwidth selection in kernel density estimation. In the case that the probability density function has a discontinuity point, Huh (2012) proposed a method of bandwidth selection using the maximum likelihood cross-validation. In this paper, two forms of cross-validation with the one-sided kernel function are proposed for bandwidth selection to estimate the location and jump size of the discontinuity point of density. These methods are motivated by the least squares cross-validation and the biased cross-validation. By simulated examples, the finite sample performances of two proposed methods with the one of Huh (2012) are compared.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.836-845
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• 2017

Gravimetric method is usually used to evaluate air-dry density, which is governing physical or mechanical properties of wood. Although it had high evaluation accuracy, the method is time consuming process. Thus, this study was conducted to estimate air-dry density of wood with high accuracy by using polychromatic X-ray and digital detector as alternative of gravimetric method. To quantify polychromatic X-ray projection for evaluating air-dry density, Lambert-Beer's law with the integral value of probability function was used. The integral value was used as weighting factor in the law, and it was determined by conducting simple test at various penetration depths and tube voltage. Mass attenuation coefficient (MAC) of wood also calculated by investigating polychromatic X-ray projection according to species, penetration depth and tube voltage. The species had not an effect on change of MAC. Finally, an air-dry density of wood was estimated by applying the integral value, MAC and Lambert-Beer's law to polychromatic X-ray projection. As an example, the relation of the integral value (${\alpha}$) according to penetration depth (t, cm) at tube voltage of 35 kV was ${\alpha}=-0.00091t{\times}0.0184$ while the regression of the MAC (${\mu}$, $cm^2/g$) was ${\mu}=0.5414{\exp}(-0.0734t)$. When calculation of root mean squared error (RMSE) was performed to check the estimation accuracy, RMSE at 35, 45 and 55 kV was 0.010, 0.013 and $0.009g/cm^3$, respectively. However, partial RMSE in relation to air-dry density was varied according to tube voltage. The partial RMSE below air-dry density of $0.41g/cm^3$ was $0.008g/cm^3$ when tube voltage of 35 kV was used. Meanwhile, the partial RMSE above air-dry density of $0.41g/cm^3$ decreased as tube voltage increased. It was conclude that the accuracy of estimation with polychromatic X-ray and digital detector was quite high if the integral value and MAC of wood were determined precisely or a condition of examination was chosen properly. It was seemed that the estimation of air-dry density by using polychromatic X-ray system can supplant the gravimetric method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.265-276
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• 2008

The observed data of enough period need for design of hydrological works. But, most hydrological data aren't enough. Therefore in this paper, hourly precipitation generated by nonhomogeneous Markov chain model using variable Kernel density function. First, the Kernel estimator is used to estimate the transition probabilities. Second, wet hours are decided by transition probabilities and random numbers. Third, the amount of precipitation of each hours is calculated by the Kernel density function that estimated from observed data. At the results, observed precipitation data and generated precipitation data have similar statistic. Also, rainfall mass curve is derived by calculated transition probabilities for generation of hourly precipitation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.507-517
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• 2017

Due to the discontinuous nature of uncertainty quantification in conventional evidence theory(ET), the computational cost of reliability analysis based on ET model is very high. A novel ET model based on fuzzy distribution and the corresponding combination rule to synthesize the judgments of experts are put forward in this paper. The intersection and union of membership functions are defined as belief and plausible membership function respectively, and the Murfhy's average combination rule is adopted to combine the basic probability assignment for focal elements. Then the combined membership functions are transformed to the equivalent probability density function by a normalizing factor. Finally, a reliability analysis procedure for structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is presented, in which the equivalent normalization method is adopted to solve the upper and lower bound of reliability. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by a numerical example and an engineering example. The results also show that the reliability interval calculated by the suggested method is almost identical to that solved by conventional method. Moreover, the results indicate that the computational cost of the suggested procedure is much less than that of conventional method. The suggested ET model provides a new way to flexibly represent epistemic uncertainty, and provides an efficiency method to estimate the reliability of structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.33-41
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• 2012

The aim of the study is to investigate the method to estimate a shelf life of KM6 single base propellant by stochastic gamma process model. The state failure level is assumed that the degradation content of stabilizer is below 0.8%. The constant of time dependent shape function and the scale parameter of stationary gamma process are estimated by moment method. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of deterioration. It is estimated that the $B_{10}$ life, a time at which the cumulative failure probability is 10%, is 25 years and the $B_{50}$ life is 36 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve. The $B_{50}$ life can be treated as the average shelf life from the practical viewpoint and the lifetime can be expressed as distribution curve by using stochastic process theory.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.3 no.5
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• pp.301-312
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• 2006

Experimental research revealed that the spatial dispersion of aggregate grains exerts pronounced influences on the mechanical and durability properties of concrete. Therefore, insight into this phenomenon is of paramount importance. Experimental approaches do not provide direct access to three-dimensional spacing information in concrete, however. Contrarily, simulation approaches are mostly deficient in generating packing systems of aggregate grains with sufficient density. This paper therefore employs a dynamic simulation system (with the acronym SPACE), allowing the generation of dense random packing of grains, representative for concrete aggregates. This paper studies by means of SPACE packing structures of aggregates with a Fuller type of size distribution, generally accepted as a suitable approximation for actual aggregate systems. Mean free spacing $\bar{\lambda}$, mean nearest neighbour distance (NND) between grain centres $\bar{\Delta}_3$, and the probability density function of ${\Delta}_3$ are used to characterize the spatial dispersion of aggregate grains in model concretes. Influences on these spacing parameters are studied of volume fraction and the size range of aggregate grains. The values of these descriptors are estimated by means of stereological tools, whereupon the calculation results are compared with measurements. The simulation results indicate that the size range of aggregate grains has a more pronounced influence on the spacing parameters than exerted by the volume fraction of aggregate. At relatively high volume density of aggregates, as met in the present cases, theoretical and experimental values are found quite similar. The mean free spacing is known to be independent of the actual dispersion characteristics (Underwood 1968); it is a structural parameter governed by material composition. Moreover, scatter of the mean free spacing among the serial sections of the model concrete in the simulation study is relatively small, demonstrating the sample size to be representative for composition homogeneity of aggregate grains. The distribution of ${\Delta}_3$ observed in this study is markedly skew, indicating a concentration of relatively small values of ${\Delta}_3$. The estimate of the size of the representative volume element (RVE) for configuration homogeneity based on NND exceeds by one order of magnitude the estimate for structure-insensitive properties. This is in accordance with predictions of Brown (1965) for composition and configuration homogeneity (corresponding to structure-insensitive and structure-sensitive properties) of conglomerates.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.10-25
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• 2018

This study was conducted to estimate the habitat suitability of 17 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa in the Hwayang stream. Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) of benthic macroinvertebrates from the Hwayang stream was developed based on three physical habitat factors which include current velocity, water depth, and the substrate. The Weibull model was used as a probability density function to analyze the distribution of individual abundance by physical factors. The number of species and the total individual abundance increased along with the increase in current velocity. By means of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), the relative importance of each factor was determined in the following order: current velocity, water depth, and the mean diameter. The results depicted that, the most influential factor in the growth of benthic macroinvertebrates in the Hwavang system was current velocity. After comparing the analyzed results from the Hwayang stream with the resukts from the Gapyeong stream, the integrated HSI was drawn. The results indicated that current velocity and substrate had similar distributions of HSI in the two streams. This was due to the addition of unmeasured data from previous surveys, or the fact that benthic macroinvertebrates adapted to deeper waters in the Hwayang Stream. Most taxa showed a clear preference for a fast current velocity, deep water depth and coarse substrate except Baetiella, Epeorus, (mayflies), and Hydropsyche (caddisfly).