• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.67-84
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• 2015

Software is more diverse and complex and the level of importance for the maintenance of application software to securely operate software is also gradually increasing in proportion. The calculation method for maintenance cost of application software applied in Korea public enterprises is involved in the range of 10 to 15% of development cost, depending on the Software Project Cost Estimation Guide. Moreover, as most software maintenance cost estimation procedures do not take into consideration of the risk factors related of maintenance, it can be seen as a main cause for the occurrence of maintenance related accidents. This study proposes a maintenance cost estimate model that takes into consideration of the risks related to the software maintenance activities to improve and resolve issues arising from the estimation of maintenance cost. In doing so, maintenance risk factors are analyzed and a risk index is derived through the analysis of risk levels based on the risk factors. Based on such analysis, a maintenance cost estimate method which reflects the maintenance risk index was established.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2015

Civil engineering infrastructure is aging and requires cost-effective maintenance strategies to enable infrastructure systems operate reliably and sustainably. This paper presents an approach for determining risk-cost balanced repair strategy of corrosion damaged reinforced concrete structures with consideration of uncertainty in structural resistance deterioration. On the basis of analytical models of cover concrete cracking evolution and bond strength degradation due to reinforcement corrosion, the effect of reinforcement corrosion on residual load carrying capacity of corroded reinforced concrete structures is investigated. A stochastic deterioration model based on gamma process is adopted to evaluate the probability of failure of structural bearing capacity over the lifetime. Optimal repair planning and maintenance strategies during the service life are determined by balancing the cost for maintenance and the risk of structural failure. The method proposed in this study is then demonstrated by numerical investigations for a concrete structure subjected to reinforcement corrosion. The obtained results show that the proposed method can provide a risk cost optimised repair schedule during the service life of corroded concrete structures.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제16권10호
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• pp.982-990
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• 2010

In a target tracking system using image information from a CCD (Charged Couple Device) or an IIR (Imaging Infra-red) sensor, occluded targets can result in track losses. If the target is occlued by background objects such as buildings or trees, probability of track existence will be reduced sharply and track will be terminated due to track maintenance algorithms. This paper proposes data association algorithm based on target existence for the robust tracking performance. we suggest the HPDA (Highest Probability Data Association) algorithm based on target existence and the tracking performance is compared with the established method based on target perceivability. Image tracking simulation that utilizes virtual 3D images and real IR images is employed to evaluate the robustness of the proposed tracking algorithm.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2015년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.243-244
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• 2015

This paper presents a Stochastic Long-Term Maintenance Costs Estimating Method for the Apartment Housing (SLCE). A simulation approach is used for generating the stochastic long-term maintenance cost, and it is based on the defined variability in repair cycle of the individual maintenance elemental within the process. SLCE provides the probability distribution of the budget required to maintain the apartment housing. A case study is presented to demonstrate and to validate the system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.3595-3603
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• 2022

Nuclear safety-class DCS is used for nuclear reactor protection function, which is one of the key facilities to ensure nuclear power plant safety, the maintenance for DCS to keep system in a high reliability is significant. In this paper, Nuclear safety-class DCS system developed by the Nuclear Power Institute of China is investigated, the model of reliability estimation considering nuclear power plant emergency trip control process is carried out using Markov transfer process. According to the System-Subgroup-Module hierarchical iteration calculation, the evolution curve of failure probability is established, and the preventive maintenance optimization strategy is constructed combining reliability numerical calculation and periodic overhaul interval of nuclear power plant, which could provide a quantitative basis for the maintenance decision of DCS system.

• International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.143-151
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• 2012

Predicting the future condition of machine and assessing the remaining useful life are the center of prognostics. This paper contributes a new prognostic method based on grey model and survival probability. The first step of the method is building a normal condition model then determining the error indicator. In the second step, the survival probability value is obtained based on the error indicator. Finally, grey model coupled with one-step-ahead forecasting technique are employed in the last step. This work has developed a modified grey model in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. For evaluating the proposed method, real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine were employed.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

콘크리트 구조물의 내구성 해석 변수들의 변동성과 불확실성으로 인해 확률론적인 접근법의 사용이 증가되어 왔다. 특히, 몬테칼로시뮬레이션 방법(Level III 방법)은 접근성의 용이함으로 인해 많은 내구신뢰성 해석에 사용되어왔지만, 결과를 얻기위해서는 수 십만번의 반복계산이 필요하다. Level II 수준의 신뢰성 해석법인 일계이차모멘트법(FOSM)은 MCS법과 비교할 수 없을 정도의 짧은 시간에 신뢰도지수나 파괴확률을 계산할 수 있어, 유효성만 검증된다면 편리성과 신속성으로 인해 폭넓은 사용이 가능할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 FOSM법과 MCS법에 의한 부식확률(내구성 파괴확률)을 서로 비교하여 FOSM법의 유효성을 검증하고 각 내구성 해석변수들의 변동성이 부식확률에 미치는 영향을 검토하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제39권11호
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• pp.1169-1174
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• 2015

위험도 평가 기술은 주로 플랜트의 많은 운영설비 중 대형사고나 피해를 유발할 수 있는 위험설비를 선별하는 목적으로 개발되었다. 현재 발전소에 설치되어 있는 설비관리시스템에는 초기 버전의 위험도 평가 모듈이 설치되어 있으나 문진 위주로 구성되어 통계적 기법에 기반을 둔 고장 확률 평가보다는 평가자의 주관적인 판단에 따라 평가 결과가 좌우되었다. 또한 발전회사 서버에 기반하였기 때문에 평가자가 공간 및 시간의 제약을 받을 수 밖에 없고 현장 활용에 한계가 있었다. 본 논문에서는 문진 대신 해석적 분석을 이용한 기본 고장확률을 계산하고 현장 검사 결과 및 검사 효용도를 분석할 수 있는 독립형 위험도 평가 소프트웨어를 개발하였다. 독립형으로 현장 운용이 가능하며 최적 정비주기 예측 및 현장검사 결과에 대한 입출력 기능이 있기 때문에 정비에 직접 참여하는 현장 사용자뿐만 아니라 발전 설비의 수명연장 및 교체를 결정해야 하는 엔지니어에게 유용한 정보를 제공할 것이다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2018

신뢰도기반 설계 및 평가(RBDA) 방법론은 천연가스 배관을 설계하는 최신의 방법 중 하나이다. 신뢰도 목표는 설계와 유지관리 단계에 걸쳐 관계된 한계상태을 충족하는 안전수준을 가지는 지 확인하기 위해 사용된다. 목표 신뢰도는 대누출과 파단과 같은 극한한계상태에 대한 개인적 위험과 사회적 위험에서 사용하는 허용 가능한 위험수준을 적용하여 개발되었다. 본 논문에서 신뢰도 목표는 배관의 생애주기 동안 주기적인 유지관리를 적용함으로써 충족할 수 있음을 보여준다. 사례분석은 국내 천연가스 수송배관에 대한 굴착공사에 따른 손상확률 계산, 부식에 따른 손상확률의 계산, 그리고 재검사 주기의 추정을 포함한다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.988-992
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• 2011

The buckling characteristics of the continuous welded rail track(CWR) is uncertainly varied by many influence factors, such as rail temperature, operating conditions of a train and maintenance of the track etc. Therefore, applying the probabilistic approach method is essential to rationally consider uncertainty and randomness of the various parameters that affect the track buckling. In this study, the probabilistic approach analysis was carried out and the results were compared with the deterministic approach using the buckling probability evaluation system of CWR tracks developed by our research team. From the comparison, it was identified that a probabilistic approach can quantitatively assess the reliability of the CWR tracks based on failure probability and can be used as a tool for decision making in track design, maintenance and operating etc.