• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.23-30
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• 2013

A dynamic analysis of random vibration processes is concerned with the first excursion probability based on first passage time during some specified lifetime or duration of the excitation. This study is concerned with the estimation of first-passage probability for hazard fluctuate wind velocity in the major cities reflecting the recent meteorological with largest data samples (yearly 2003-2012). The basic wind speeds were standardized homogeneously to the surface roughness category C, and to 10m above the ground surface. In this paper, the hazard fluctuate wind velocities are treated as a time-independent (stationary) random process and Gaussian random processes. The first excursion probability were calculated from Poisson model based on the independent event of level crossing & two-state Markov model based on the envelopes of level crossing.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.90-96
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• 2016

This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.211-227
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• 2023

To investigate the non-Gaussian feature of fluctuating wind pressures on rectangular high-rise buildings, wind tunnel tests were conducted on scale models with side ratios ranging from 1/9~9 in an open exposure for various wind directions. The high-order statistical moments, time histories, probability density distributions, and peak factors of pressure fluctuations are analyzed. The mixed normal-Weibull distribution, Gumbel-Weibull distribution, and lognormal-Weibull distribution are adopted to fit the probability density distribution of different non-Gaussian wind pressures. Zones of Gaussian and non-Gaussian are classified for rectangular buildings with various side ratios. The results indicate that on the side wall, the non-Gaussian wind pressures are related to the distance from the leading edge. Apart from the non-Gaussianity in the separated flow regions noted by some literature, wind pressures behind the area where reattachment happens present non-Gaussian nature as well. There is a new probability density distribution type of non-Gaussian wind pressure which has both long positive and negative tail found behind the reattachment regions. The correlation coefficient of wind pressures is proved to reflect the non-Gaussianity and a new method to estimate the mean reattachment length of rectangular high-rise building side wall is proposed by evaluating the correlation coefficient. For rectangular high-rise buildings, the mean reattachment length calculated by the correlation coefficient method along the height changes in a parabolic shape. Distributions of Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind pressures vary with side ratios. It is inappropriate to estimate the extreme loads of wind pressures using a fixed peak factor. The trend of the peak factor with side ratios on different walls is given.

• Water for future
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.97-107
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• 1992

The purpose of this study is to estimate the flood hydrograph and runoff at ungaged small watershed by using interactive program with geomorphologic and climatic data obtained from the topographic maps following the law of stream classification and ordering by Horton and Strahler. The present model is modified from Allam's interactive program which derives the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH). This program uses the results of Laplace transformation and convolution integral of probability density function in travel time at each station, This program is used to estimate the time to peak, the flood discharge and the direct runoff at San seong station in Bocheong Stream.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.63-68
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• 2009

The statistics probability approach for microbial risk assessment (MRA) has been recognized as an efficient method because this probability approach, which can be presented the diversity, variability, and uncertainty for the environmental factors of food processing, provide better realistic results than point estimate. This study was conducted to determine of probability statistics for the environmental factors of the pork-cutting processing i.e. the processing time, the pork meat temperature, and processing room temperature etc. As the input parameters for the MRA, triangular distribution and normal distribution were selected as an efficient probability distribution model, these distributions were analyzed by the simulation. The simulation results showed the processing time estimated 53 min as mean (5% - 22 min and 95% - 98 min), pork meat temperature estimated $4.83^{\circ}C$ as mean (5% - $2.25^{\circ}C$ and 95% - $7.12^{\circ}C$, 48.78% exceed $5^{\circ}C$), and processing room temperature estimated $17^{\circ}C$ as mean (5% - $10.92^{\circ}C$ and 95% - $22.56^{\circ}C$, 71.178% exceed $15^{\circ}C$).

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.72-75
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• 2005

Uncertainty of objects in Moving Object Database is a coherent property. It has been discussed in a lot of researches on modelling and query processing. The previous studies assume that uncertain future time is determined through utilizing recent speed and direction of vehicles. This method is simple and useful for estimating the time of the near future location. However, it is not appropriate when we estimate the time of the far future location. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a concept of planned route. It is used to estimate uncertain future time, which has to be located at a given point. If the route of an object is planned beforehand its locations are uncertainly distributed near that route. By a simple projection operation, the probability that a location lies in the planned route is increased. Moreover, we identify the future time of an object based on the speed for passing the route, which is offered via a website.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.47-61
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• 1996

An ATM switch must deal with various kinds of input sources having different traffic characteristics and it must guarantee very small value of cel loss probability, about 10$^{8}$ -10$^{12}$ , to deal with loss-sensitive traffics. In order to estimate such a rate event probability with simulation procedure, a variance reduction technique is essential for obtaining an appropriate level of precision with reduced cost. In this paper, we propose a hybrid simulation technique to achieve reduction of variance of cell loss probability estimator, where hybrid means the combination of analytical method and simulation procedure. A discrete time queueing model with multiple input sources and a finite shared buffer is considered, where the arrival process at an input source and a finite shared buffer is considered, where the arrival process at an input source is governed by an Interrupted Bernoulli Process and the service rate is constant. We deal with heterogeneous input sources as well as homogeneous case. The performance of the proposed hybrid simulation estimator is compared with those of the raw simulation estimator and the importance sampling estimator in terms of variance reduction ratios.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.250-255
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• 2005

For navigation of a service robot, mapping and localization are very important. To estimate the robot pose, the map of the environment is required and it can be built by exploration or SLAM. Exploration is the fundamental task of guiding a robot autonomously during mapping such that it covers the entire environment with its sensors. In this paper, an efficient exploration scheme based on the position probability of the end nodes of a topological map is proposed. In this scheme, a topological map is constructed in real time using the thinning-based approach. The robot then updates the position probability of each end node maintaining its position at the current location based on the Bayesian update rule using the range data. From this probability, the robot can determine whether or not it needs to visit the specific end node to examine the environment around this node. Various experiments show that the proposed exploration scheme can perform exploration more efficiently than other schemes in that, in most cases, exploration for the entire environment can be completed without directly visiting everywhere in the environment.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.81 no.4
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• pp.429-441
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• 2022

A probabilistic assessment of the seismic-excited buildings with a multiple-tuned-mass-damper (MTMD) system is carried out in the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, MTMD system, and the stochastic model of the seismic excitations. A free search optimization procedure of the individual mass, stiffness and, damping parameters of the MTMD system based on the snap-drift cuckoo search (SDCS) optimization algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of the MTMD system. Considering a 10-story structure in three cases equipped with single tuned mass damper (STMS), 5-TMD and 10-TMD, sensitivity analyses are carried out using Sobol' indices based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Considering different seismic performance levels, the reliability analyses are done using MCS and kriging-based MCS methods. The results show the maximum structural responses are more affected by changes in the PGA and the stiffness coefficients of the structural floors and TMDs. The results indicate the kriging-based MCS method can estimate the accurate amount of failure probability by spending less time than the MCS. The results also show the MTMD gives a significant reduction in the structural failure probability. The effect of the MTMD on the reduction of the failure probability is remarkable in the performance levels of life safety and collapse prevention. The maximum drift of floors may be reduced for the nominal structural system by increasing the TMDs, however, the complexity of the MTMD model and increasing its corresponding uncertainty sources can be caused a slight increase in the failure probability of the structure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.26 no.2_2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2023

Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.