• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.499-514
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• 2011

An underlying assumption of traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate, and hence the frequency of hydrologic events, is stationary, or unchanging over time. Under stationary conditions, the distribution of the variable of interest is invariant to temporal translation. Water resources infrastructure planning and design, such as dams, levees, canals, bridges, and culverts, relies on an understanding of past conditions and projection of future conditions. But, Water managers have always known our world is inherently non-stationary, and they routinely deal with this in management and planning. The aim of this paper is to give a brief introduction to non-stationary extreme value analysis methods. In this paper, a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis approach is introduced in order to determine probability rainfall consider changing climate. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the conditional Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation. This method are applied to the annual maximum 24 hours-rainfall. The results show that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining probability rainfall for changing climate, sucha sa trend, Moreover, Non-stationary frequency analyzed using SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation).

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.51-62
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• 2015

It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.307-314
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• 2000

This study is to investigate the recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years using over 200 year records of annual rainfall depth including Chosun Age in Korea. As well as analyzing the correlation structure of the raw data, recurrence trends of wet and dry year has been investigated based on several truncation levels (mean, $mean{\pm}0.25stdv.,\;mean{\pm}O.5stdv.,\;mean{\pm}O.75stdv.,\;mean{\pm}stdv.$). Also the transition probability among wet, dry and normal years has been derived for the same truncation levels. and finally the average return periods based on the steady-state probabilities were obtained. This analysis has been applied to not only the entire data but also partial data set of before- and after-the long dry period around 1900 in order to compare and detect the possible difference between the Chukwooki (an old raingauge invented in Chosun age) and the modem flip-bucket style. As a result, Similar pattern of dry and wet year recurrence has been found, but the return period of extremely dry years after the dry period shown longer than that before the dry period. Assuming that the dry and wet years can be defined as $mean{\pm}$ standard deviations, respectively, the return period of the wet years is shown to be about 5~6 years and that of the dry years about 6~7 years.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.131-142
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• 2020

The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4B
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• pp.413-427
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• 2010

Urbanization means the sudden increment of a population and the industrialization. The hydrologic water cycle causes many changes due to urbanization. Therefore, the affects that urbanization influences on the precipitation events were analyzed. But the precipitation events are very much influenced many meteorological and climatologically indices besides the effect of an urbanization. So, an analysis was performed by using precipitation data observed in many spots of the Korean peninsula. The analysis data are annual precipitation, the duration 1 daily maximum amount of precipitation, the rainy days, and 10 mm over the rainy days, and 80 mm. seasonal precipitation and seasonal rainy days. The analytical method classified 4 clusters in which the precipitation characteristic is similar through the cluster analysis. It compared and analyzed precipitation events of the urban and rural stations. Moreover, the representative rainfall stations were selected and the urban stations and rural stations were compared. In the analyzed result, the increment of the rainy days was conspicuous over 80mm in which it can cause the heavy rainfall. By using time precipitation data, the design precipitation was calculated. Rainfall events over probability precipitation on duration and return period were analyzed. The times in which it exceeds the probability precipitation in which the urban area is used for the hydrologic structure design in comparison with the rural area more was very much exposed to increase.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.299-309
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• 2006

In recent years, a large natural disasters have occurred due to worldwide abnormal weather and the amount of damage has been increased more resulting from high density population and a large-sized buildings of the urbanized area. In this study. we estimate the flooded area according to rainfall probability intensify and sea level in Woreong dong, Masan occurred flood damages by typhoon Maemi using SWMM, a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model in urban area, and then analyze the damage of flood expected area through connecting with GIS database. In result, we can predict accurately expected area of inundation according to the rainfall intensity and sea level rise through dividing the study area into sub-area and estimating a flooded area and height using SWMM. We provide also the shelter information available for urban planning and flood risk estimation by landuse in expected flood area. Further research for hazard management system construction linked with web or wireless communication technology expects to increase its application.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1172-1175
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• 2006

Generally, the estimation of design flood uses basin rainfall data, water level data, and runoff data, and so forms rainfall-runoff model. Because owing to the lack of hydrological data, the decision of representative unit hydrograph about the basin is difficult, the estimation of design flood uses topography feature data, and so presumes variables, and then applies the presumed variables to the model. In estimating design flood by using the model, it is considerably difficult to analyze how the model input variables estimated by topography factors, or the design flood data estimated previously are related to basin feature factors as the basic data, and presume design flood in the unmeasured basins or the basins where river arrangement basic plan is not established. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the design flood estimated previously by river arrangement basic plan is correlated with topography factors in presuming design flood, and so examine the presumption measures of design flood by using topography feature data and probability rainfall data.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.615-631
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• 2012

This study provides an evaluation for capability of Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS) on future regional scale climate projection. Temperature and precipitation are compared between ground-level observation data and results of regional models (MM5) for the past 30 years over the Korean peninsula. The ICAMS successfully simulates the local-scale spatial/seasonal variation of the temperature and precipitation. The probability distribution of simulated daily mean and minimum temperature agree well with the observed patterns and trends, although mean temperature shows a little cold bias about $1^{\circ}C$ compared to observations. It seems that a systematic cold bias is mostly due to an underestimation of maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, the rainfall in winter and light rainfall are remarkably simulated well, but summer precipitation is underestimated in the heavy rainfall phenomena of exceeding 20 mm/day. The ICAMS shows a tendency to overestimate the number of washout days about 7%. Those results of this study indicate that the performance of ICAMS is reasonable regarding to air quality predication over the Korean peninsula.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.57-68
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• 2001

It is matter of common knowledge to give impetus to the water resources development to cope with increasing demand and supply for the water utilization project including agricultural living and industrial water owing to the economic and civilization development in recent years. Regional design rainfall is necessary or the design of the dam reservoir levee and drainage facilities for the development of various kinds of essential waters including agricultural water. For the estimation of the regional design rainfall classification of the climatologically an geographically homogeneous regions should be preceded preferentially This study was mainly conducted to derive the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions all over the regions except Cheju and Wulreung islands in Korea. A total of 65 rain gauges were used to regional analysis of precipitation. Annual maximum series for the consecutive durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72hr were used for various statistical analysis. Both K-means clustering and mean annual precipitation methods are used to identify homogeneous regions all over the regions. Nine and five homogeneous regions for the precipitation were classified by the K-means clustering and mean annual methods, respectively. Finally, Five homogeneous regions were established by the trial and error method with homogeneity test using statistics of $\chi$$^2$ distribution.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.447-457
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• 2014

This research focuses on the changes of return period for nonstationary rainfall data in which exceedance or nonexceedance probability varies depending on time. We examined two definitions of return period under nonstationarity and also performed nonstationary frequency analysis using the nonstationary Gumbel model to investigate variations of return period in Korea. Seogwipo, Inje, Jecheon, Gumi, Mungyeong, and Geochang were selected as subject sites of application. These sites have a trend in rainfall data as well as having more than 30 years data. As the results of application, the return periods considering nonstationarity are different with those considering stationarity. The differences of return periods between nonstationarity and stationarity increase as growing return period increases. In addition, the return period using the expected waiting time method shows lower value than that using the expected number of event method.