• KIEAE Journal
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

This study aims to suggest improvement plans and explain about the current situation for facilitating Long-life housing, based on the results on flexibility items among 27 items consisting the "Housing Performance Grading System". From the 9th of January, 2006 to the month of July in 2011, study has analyzed evaluation results on 216 different types for each grade and reviewed evaluation criteria and methods. Current evaluation criteria applies quantitative analysis, by calculating in percentage how much bearing walls and columns, which hinder flexibility, take up space in the household. The evaluation rate for each household was assessed in relation to its structural system, and a higher grade was given to column-typed structures. In addition, to facilitate long-life housing, this study extracted harmful factors, expanding the range of evaluation. The first step was to evaluate structure, which is the basic element. The second step can to evaluate the probability of applying resources in response to the changes of structural systems. As The third step, Flexibility item will evaluate the probability of moving the water-using area, suggesting gradual approach. Thus, through evaluations of flexibility items, the study aims to improve the quality of life in household, by avoiding uniform structures and acquiring more freedom for space designs.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2014

본 논문은 신뢰성 이론에 기초하여 철골보의 단경간 및 2경간 연속보의 파손확률을 결정하였다. 계산식에서 철골보에 가해지는 하중은 정규 분포로 가정하여 진행되었으며, 파손확률의 변화를 확인하기 위해 보의 중앙범위에 적용하는 하중을 보의 1대 1과 1대 2로 분할된 지점에 배치하였다. 보의 끝부분의 경계 결합조건 역시 연구에 포함되었다. 연구 결과 파손확률이 있는 보에 대한 결합조건 및 파손확률은 2차 분석에 따라 그 중요도가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 일부의 경우를 제외하고 보의 파손확률은 보 양단의 경계조건에 따라 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.56-63
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권7호
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• pp.2426-2426
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• 2021

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
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• pp.480-483
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• 2004

This paper, we present the evaluation of outage probability on the SNR under the overlapped carrier allocation scheme in the reverse link with imperfect power control of a cellular CDMA system, which is base on using Gaussian approximation. In numerical results, the band limited pulse generated by square-root of raised consin pulse shaping filters (SRRC) of the transmitted signal is investigated and compared in conventional FD/CDMA and OC-CDMA of the outage probability. It will be also show that the outage probability can be improved by overlapping of carriers. We use error statistics to model the intra-cell interference and evaluate the impact of different mobiles velocity and number of resolvable paths on the system performance.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.157-166
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• 2006

This research proposes an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for computing error probability in high performance digital communication st stems. It characterizes special features of the problem and suggests an importance sampling algorithm specially designed to handle the problem. It uses a shifted exponential density as the importance sampling density, and shows an adaptive way of choosing the rate and the origin of the shifted exponential density. Instead of equal allocation, an intelligent allocation of the samples is proposed so that more samples are allocated to more important part of the error probability. The algorithm uses the nested feature of the error space and avoids redundancy in estimating the probability. The algorithm is applied to an example data set and shows a great improvement in accuracy of the error probability estimation.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.195-202
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• 1979

In this paper, a cause-consequence chart is applied to evaluate the probability that the containment spray system in a nuclear power plant may not be woring properly, given a demand for spryaing at loss of coolant accident (LOCA). It is shown how the diagram provides a basis for calculating two probability measures for malfunctioning of this system, in case the test policy of the system is taken into account, i.e., average probability that the containment spray cannot be established, and average probability that the containment spray is established : spray stops before the required operating time is over.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.95-105
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• 1988

This paper describes the development of a reliability-based optimum design technique for such three dimensional tubular frames as off shore structures. The objective function is formulated for the structural weight. Constraints that probability of failure for the critical sections does not exceed the allowable probability of failure are set up. In the evaluation of the probability of failure, fatigue as well as buckling and plasticity failure are taken into account and the mean-value first-order second-moment method(MVFOSM) is applied for its calculation. In order to reduce the computing time required for the repeated structural analysis in the optimization process, reanalysis method is also applied. Application to two and three dimensional simple frame structures is performed. The influence of material properties, external forces, allowable failure probabilities and interaction between external forces on the optimum design is investigated.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.25-34
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• 1997

This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation process to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare event and limited data in accident management leads analysis to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited dat3 and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant.