• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.15-29
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• 2010

Spalling is a kind of instability phenomenon of surrounding rock around underground openings subjected to high in-situ stress according to the development of extension fractures. Three kinds of spalling criteria have been presented so far; however, all spalling criteria have the range of values so that the fuzziness and vagueness of spalling criterion cannot be avoided. In this study, a new fuzzy probability model is proposed to predict the probability of spalling in a systematic way by using fuzzy probability theory. Many of the underground opening projects worldwide are evaluated with the proposed method. Prediction results expressed as the spalling probability agree well with the in-situ observations. In particular, a new fuzzy probability model considering all three evaluation indices of spalling by adopting weighting factors based on relative reliability among three evaluation indices is able to resolve erroneous prediction of spalling by choosing only one prediction method. Moreover, the more reasonable value of spalling probability could have been obtained by adopting the modified damage index to the newly proposed fuzzy probability model.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.293-298
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• 2007

A new way to integrate various geophysical information for evaluation of RQD was developed. In this study, we does not directly define the RQD value where borehole data are not sampled. Instead, we infer the probability of RQD values with prior probability of data directly obtained from borehole, and secondary supporting probability from resistivity and seismic tomography data. First, we applied the geostatstical indicator kriging to get prior probability of RQD value, and indicator kriging with soft data to get the supporting probability from resistivity and seismic data. And we finally applied the permanence ratio rule to integrate these information. The finally obtained result was also analyzed to fully utilize the probabilistic features. For example, we showed the probability of wrongly classifying the RQD evaluation and vice versa. This kind of analytical result may be used for decision making process based on the geophysical exploration.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 1994

Assessment of the safety of ship's transit in the narrow channel consist of the maneuvering safety determined by the chance of running aground, the maneuvering difficulty determined by ship's workload and master's subjective evaluation. To examine the relation between master's subjective evaluation and maneuvering safety, this utilizes a real-time and full-mission shiphandling simulator in the Korea Marine Training & Research Institutes(KMTRI). The vessel chosen was 60,000-ton, Panamax-type ship. The findings regarding master's subjective evaluation were as follows: -Relation between master's subjective evaluation and common logarithms of stranding probability is linear. -Stranding probability with more than 0.001 is master's subjective evaluation with more than 5.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.22 no.11
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• pp.15-21
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• 2021

Losses of both life and property increased from damage to underground pipe such as heat transmission pipe buried underground in downtown because pipes are gradually aging. Considering the characteristics of the heat transmission pipe, which is not exposed to the outside and difficult to immediately identify problems such as damage, it is realistic to indirectly check the condition of the facility based on the historical information that is periodically collected through facility maintenance. In this study, a methodology for estimating the damage probability was developed by examining the history information of the heat transmission pipe, deriving an evaluation factor that is related to the damage probability. The contribution factor of the damage probability were reviewed by analyzing not only the guidelines for maintenance of heat transmission pipe of advanced European countries and domestic district heating companies, but also the cases of waterworks with similar characteristics. Evaluation factors were selected by considering not only the correlation with the damage probability but also the possibility of securing data. Based on 1999, when the construction technology and standards of heat transmission pipe changed, the damage probability estimation function according to the period of use was divided into the case of being buried before 1998 and the case of being buried after 1999, and presented. In addition, the damage probability was corrected by assigning weights according to the measured data for each evaluation factor such as the diameter, use, and management authority.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.10
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• pp.795-801
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• 2012

This paper describes theoretical approach methodology for the Probability based risk Evaluation Techniques (PET) to monitor the risk levels of small-sized sea floater as like a yacht pier. The risk decision-making process by risk criteria with five-step scales is the core concepts of PET. These five-step scales are calculated from cumulative probability distribution of response functions for the sea floater motions using closed-form expressions. In addition, The risk decision-making process of PET with the risk criteria is proposed in this work. To verify the usability of PET, simulation experiments are carried out using mimic signals with the electrical specifications of ADIS16405 sensor that is to be use as measurement tool for the floater motions. As results from experiments, the risk evaluation error by PET shows 0.38 levels in maximum 5.0 levels. These results clearly shown that the proposed PET can be use as the monitoring techniques.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.151-164
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• 2013

A key input for the assessment of Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) with Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods is the evaluation of the factors influencing the human performance (often referred to as Performance Shaping Factors, PSFs). In general, the definition of these factors and the supporting guidance are such that their evaluation involves significant subjectivity. This affects the repeatability of HRA results as well as the collection of HRA data for model construction and verification. In this context, the present paper considers the TAsk COMplexity (TACOM) measure, developed by one of the authors to quantify the complexity of procedure-guided tasks (by the operating crew of nuclear power plants in emergency situations), and evaluates its use to represent (objectively and quantitatively) task complexity issues relevant to HRA methods. In particular, TACOM scores are calculated for five Human Failure Events (HFEs) for which empirical evidence on the HEPs (albeit with large uncertainty) and influencing factors are available - from the International HRA Empirical Study. The empirical evaluation has shown promising results. The TACOM score increases as the empirical HEP of the selected HFEs increases. Except for one case, TACOM scores are well distinguished if related to different difficulty categories (e.g., "easy" vs. "somewhat difficult"), while values corresponding to tasks within the same category are very close. Despite some important limitations related to the small number of HFEs investigated and the large uncertainty in their HEPs, this paper presents one of few attempts to empirically study the effect of a performance shaping factor on the human error probability. This type of study is important to enhance the empirical basis of HRA methods, to make sure that 1) the definitions of the PSFs cover the influences important for HRA (i.e., influencing the error probability), and 2) the quantitative relationships among PSFs and error probability are adequately represented.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.27 no.4B
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• pp.308-315
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• 2002

This paper proposes new probability models for wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) signals. The performance of a W-CDMA system is evaluated by calculating the average bit error rate(BER) which is derived from the probability distribution of the W-CDMA receiver output. If a probability model of the receiver output is available, the performance evaluation becomes much simpler and it enables diverse analyses of the system for channel coding and other purposes. In this paper, probability distributions of W-CDMA signals, more specifically those of the receiver output, are represented as Rayleigh and noncentral chi distribution, considering various bandwidths and channel environments. The adequacy of a probability model is verified by chi-square test of 1% significance level. The BER of the system obtained from the simulation results is compared to that obtained from the probability model to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed models.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.398-402
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• 2014

A generalized trigonometric fuzzy set is a generalization of a trigonometric fuzzy number. Zadeh([7]) defines the probability of the fuzzy event using the probability. We define the normal and exponential fuzzy probability on $\mathbb{R}$ using the normal and exponential distribution, respectively, and we calculate the normal and exponential fuzzy probability for generalized trigonometric fuzzy sets.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.237-248
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• 2009

The probability of default on the credit evaluation study is represented as a linear combination of two distributions of default and non-default, and the distribution of the probability of default are generally known in most cases. Except the well-known Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for testing the identity of two distribution, Kuiper, Cramer-Von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Watson test statistics are introduced in this work. Under the assumption that the population distribution is known, modified Cramer-Von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Watson statistics are proposed. Based on score data generated from various probability density functions of the probability of default, the modified test statistics are discussed and compared.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.22 no.10
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• pp.49-55
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• 2008

This paper presents a novel evaluation method of life expectancy of power system equipment. The life expectancy means expected remaining lifetime; it can be usefully utilized to maintenance planning, equipment replacement planning, and reliability assessment. The proposed method is composed of three steps. Firstly, a cumulative probability for future years is evaluated for targeted age year. Secondly, the cumulative probability is modeled by well-blown cumulative distribution function(CDF) such as Weibull distribution. Lastly, life expectancy is evaluated as the mean value of the model. Since the model CDF is established in the proposed method, it can also evaluate the probability of equipment retirement within specific years. The developed method is applied to examples of generators of combined cycle power plants to show its effectiveness.