• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Evaluation

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Security performance analysis of SIMO relay systems over Composite Fading Channels

  • Sun, Jiangfeng;Bie, Hongxia;Li, Xingwang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.2649-2669
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we analyze the secrecy performance of single-input multiple-output (SIMO) relay systems over κ-μ shadowed fading channels. Based on considering relay model employing decode-and-forward (DF) protocol, two security evaluation metrics, namely, secure outage probability (SOP) and probability of strictly positive secrecy capacity (SPSC) are studied, for which closed-form analytical expressions are derived. In addition, Monte Carlo results prove the validity of the theoretical derivation. The simulation results confirm that the factors that enhance the security include large ratio of (μD, μE), (mD, mE), (LD, LE) and small ratio of (kD, kE) under the high signal-to-noise ratio regime.

Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Ultrasonic Inspection System about Sizing Performance of Defects in Piping on Nuclear Power Plant (원전 배관 결함의 크기측정성능에 대한 초음파 검사시스템의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가)

  • 김현묵;정지홍;지용우;장경영;박익근;박윤원
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2002.06a
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2002
  • The performance demonstration round robin test was conducted to quantify the capability of ultrasonic inspection for in-service and to address some aspects of reliability for nondestructive evaluation. The fifteen inspection teams who employed procedures that met or exceeded ASME Sec. XI code requirements detected the piping of nuclear power plant with various cracks to evaluate the capability of detection. With data from PD-RR test, the performance of ultrasonic nondestructive inspection could be assessed using probability of length and depth sizing of cracks.

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PFM APPLICATION FOR THE PWSCC INTEGRITY OF Ni-BASE ALLOY WELDS-DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PINEP-PWSCC

  • Hong, Jong-Dae;Jang, Changheui;Kim, Tae Soon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.8
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    • pp.961-970
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    • 2012
  • Often, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approaches have been adopted to quantify the failure probabilities of Ni-base alloy components, especially due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), in a primary piping system of pressurized water reactors. In this paper, the key features of an advanced PFM code, PINEP-PWSCC (Probabilistic INtegrity Evaluation for nuclear Piping-PWSCC) for such purpose, are described. In developing the code, we adopted most recent research results and advanced models in calculation modules such as PWSCC crack initiation and growth models, a performance-based probability of detection (POD) model for Ni-base alloy welds, and so on. To verify the code, the failure probabilities for various Alloy 182 welds locations were evaluated and compared with field experience and other PFM codes. Finally, the effects of pre-existing crack, weld repair, and POD models on failure probability were evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of PINEP-PWSCC.

A Short Consideration of Binomial Confidence Interval (이항신뢰구간에 대한 소고)

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.731-743
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    • 2009
  • The interval estimation for binomial proportion has been treated practically as well as theoretically for a long time. In this paper we compared the properties of major confidence intervals and summarized current issues for coverage probability and interval length which are the criteria of evaluation for confidence interval. Additionally, we examined the three topics which were considered in using the binomial confidence interval in the field. And finally we discussed the future studies for a low binomial proportion.

Reliability Evaluation considering Fuzzy-based Uncertainty of Peak Load Forecast (피크 부하의 불확실성을 고려한 전력계통의 신뢰도 산출)

  • Kim, Dong-Min;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2008.07a
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    • pp.111-112
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    • 2008
  • Although two types of uncertainty such as randomness and fuzziness simultaneously exist in power systems, yet they have been treated as distinct fields to evaluate the power system reliability. Thus, this paper presents a reliability assessment method based on a combined concept of fuzzy and probability. To reflect the two-fold uncertainty, a modified load duration curve(MLDC) is proposed using the probability distribution of historical load data in which a fuzzy model for the peak load forecast is embedded. IEEE RTS system was used to demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the proposed method, and the reliability indices were obtained using the proposed MLDC. The results show a wider insight into impact of load fuzziness on uncertainties of reliability indices for power systems.

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Impact of uncertain natural vibration period on quantile of seismic demand

  • Hong, H.P.;Wang, S.S.;Kwan, A.K.H.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.357-372
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    • 2008
  • This study investigates effect of uncertainty in natural vibration period on the seismic demand. It is shown that since this uncertainty affects the acceleration and displacement responses differently, two ratios, one relating peak acceleration responses and the other relating the peak displacement responses, are not equal and both must be employed in evaluating and defining the critical seismic demand. The evaluation of the ratios is carried out using more than 200 strong ground motion records. The results suggest that the uncertainty in the natural vibration period impacts significantly the statistics of the ratios relating the peak responses. By using the statistics of the ratios, a procedure and sets of empirical equations are developed for estimating the probability consistent seismic demand for both linear and nonlinear systems.

Structural Topology Design Using Compliance Pattern Based Genetic Algorithm (컴플라이언스 패턴 기반 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 구조물 위상설계)

  • Park, Young-Oh;Min, Seung-Jae
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.786-792
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    • 2009
  • Topology optimization is to find the optimal material distribution of the specified design domain minimizing the objective function while satisfying the design constraints. Since the genetic algorithm (GA) has its advantage of locating global optimum with high probability, it has been applied to the topology optimization. To guarantee the structural connectivity, the concept of compliance pattern is proposed and to improve the convergence rate, small number of population size and variable probability in genetic operators are incorporated into GA. The rank sum weight method is applied to formulate the fitness function consisting of compliance, volume, connectivity and checkerboard pattern. To substantiate the proposed method design examples in the previous works are compared with respect to the number of function evaluation and objective function value. The comparative study shows that the compliance pattern based GA results in the reduction of computational cost to obtain the reasonable structural topology.

Evaluation of carbonation service life of slag blended concrete considering climate changes

  • Wang, Xiao-Yong;Luan, Yao
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.419-429
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    • 2018
  • Climate changes, such as increasing of $CO_2$ concentration and global warming, will impact on the carbonation service life of concrete structures. Moreover, slag blended concrete has a lower carbonation resistance than control concrete. This study presents a probabilistic numerical procedure for evaluating the impact of climate change on carbonation service life of slag blended concrete. This numerical procedure considers both corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period. First, in corrosion initiation period, by using an integrated hydration-carbonation model, the amount of carbonatable substances, porosity, and carbonation depth are calculated. The probability of corrosion initiation is determined through Monte Carlo method. Second, in corrosion propagation period, a probabilistic model is proposed to calculate the critical corrosion degree at surface cracking, the probability of surface cracking, and service life. Third, based on the service life in corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period, the whole service life is calculated. The analysis shows that for concrete structures with 50 years service life, after considering climate changes, the service life reduces about 7%.

A Study on Probability Carbonation Progress of Concrete After Repair Method of Carbonated RC Structures (탄산화가 진행된 기존 RC구조물의 보수공법 적용후 탄산화 진행 예측에 관한 확률론적 연구)

  • Lee, Hyung-Min;Lee, Han-Seung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.41-42
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    • 2016
  • As the importance of maintenance of reinforced concrete structure recently has emerged, the attention of durability of structure has been increasing. There are many studies about durability decline especially due to the carbonation. In order to study carbonation progress after surface repair of carbonated concrete, each carbonation penetration velocity from different repair materials of concrete structure is compared through the experiment of carbonation accelerating CO2 concentration to 20% and 100%. As carbonation infiltration progress is predicted through this study, the counterplan of service life evaluation will be prepared on selection of repair materials of concrete structure.

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Evaluation of Electrical Degradation in Epoxy Composites by Dielectric Breakdown Properties (절연파괴 특성을 이용한 Epoxy 복합체의 전기적 열화 평가)

  • Lim, Jung-Kwan;Park, Yong-Pil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.05c
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    • pp.212-217
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    • 2002
  • The dielectric breakdown of epoxy composites used for transformers was experimented and then its data were simulated by Weibull distribution probability. First of all, speaking of dielectric breakdown properties, the more hardener increased the stronger breakdown strength at low temperature because of cross-linked density by the virtue of ester radical. The breakdown strength of specimens with filler was lower than it of non-filler specimens because it is believed that the adding filler forms interface and charge is accumulated in it, therefore the molecular motility is raised and the electric field is concentrated. In the case of filled specimens with treating silane, the breakdown strength become much higher Finally, from the analysis of weibull distribution, it was confirmed that as the allowed breakdown probability was given by 0.1[%], the applied field value needed to be under 21.5 MV/cm.

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