• 기술혁신연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.159-177
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• 1998

Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.38-50
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• 2005

The current Air defense missile, Nike, will be replaced by the Patriot missile in the near future. In this paper, we developed an optimal allocation model for the Patriot missile. In order to formulate the model, we applied a set covering and If model. This model considers not only weapon's characteristics and performances but also the threat of enemy aircrafts and SCUD missiles. When we apply this model, we can find the optimal location of Patriot batteries which maximizes the kill probability of enemy aircrafts and SCUD missiles attacking vital area of our forces. This model can directly be used to the decision making for the optimal military facility allocation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.407-417
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• 2020

Entrepreneurship has become an important topic for governments to shape and influence the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship and improve policy toward the entrepreneurial economy. This study investigates the factors affecting the entrepreneurial decision of nascent entrepreneurs belonging to Generation Y in Vietnam. A mixed-method including both qualitative and quantitative methodologies was utilized. A focus group was carried out with 11 participants for exploring, reviewing, and testing content validity of constructs and measurement items. The conceptual model and hypotheses were developed using data collected by a questionnaire survey. The cross-sectional survey method was applied. A sample of 221 respondents was constituted, by both electronic and paper surveys with non-probability and convenience sampling techniques. SmartPLS 3 software was employed to analyze the data collected. The results show that nine factors were affecting the entrepreneurial decision of nascent entrepreneurs belonging to Generation Y in Vietnam, including entrepreneurial education, family background, entrepreneurial ecosystem, perceived behavioral control, social valuation, perceived opportunity, attitude, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and entrepreneurial intention. The findings show the importance of entrepreneurial education, social value, and ecosystems. Therefore, in order to promote successful entrepreneurship, it is necessary to strengthen entrepreneurship education and have a strategy for the improvement of the entrepreneurship ecosystem.

• 전자공학회논문지SC
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.54-62
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• 2011

감성 행동을 표현하는 것은 인간 친화 로봇의 필수 요소 중 하나이다. 하지만 감성 행동은 로봇의 목적이나 사양에 따라서 달라지기 때문에 감성 행동을 생성하고 표현하는 방법은 로봇마다 다르다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 로봇의 목적이나 사양에 상관없이 다양한 인간 친화 로봇에 적용될 수 있는 감성 행동 생성 방법을 제안한다. 먼저 감성 행동 생성 방법의 입력 값으로 다중 감정값을 이용한다. 다중 감정 공간을 이용하여 각 감정이 독립적으로 존재할 수 있기 때문에 로봇의 목적에 따라 사용하고자 하는 감정을 취사선택할 수 있다. 로봇의 사양에 따라서 표현할 수 있는 방법이 다르므로, 로봇의 표현 부위를 나누고, 각 표현 부위별로 표현할 수 있는 행동을 데이터화한다. 이렇게 나누어진 행동들을 단위 행동이라고 정의하며, 각 단위 행동이 표현할 수 있는 감정에 대한 반영도를 결정한다. 그리고 이를 이용하여 주어진 다중 감정값에 최적화된 단위 행동 조합을 결정한다. 이 과정을 사양과 목적이 다른 사이버 로봇 시뮬레이터, 3D 캐릭터 헤드 로봇, 기계적인 설계 기반의 헤드 로봇 등에 적용함으로써 제안한 방법의 범용성을 실험한다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.157-176
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• 2018

관리종목은 상장폐지 가능성이 높은 기업들을 즉시 퇴출하기 보다는 시장 안에서 일정한 제약을 부여하고, 그러한 기업들에게 상장폐지 사유를 극복할 수 있는 시간적 기회를 주는 제도이다. 뿐만 아니라 이를 투자자 및 시장참여자들에게 공시하여 투자의사결정에 주의를 환기시키는 역할을 한다. 기업의 부실화로 인한 부도 예측에 관한 연구는 많이 있으나, 부실화 가능성이 높은 기업에 대한 사회, 경제적 경보체계라 할 수 있는 관리종목에 관한 연구는 상대적으로 매우 부족하다. 이에 본 연구는 코스닥 기업들 가운데 관리종목 지정 기업과 비관리종목 기업을 표본으로 삼아 로지스틱 회귀분석과 의사결정나무 분석을 이용하여 관리종목 지정 예측 모형을 개발하고 검증하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 로지스틱 회귀분석 모형은 ROE(세전계속사업이익), 자기자본현금흐름률, 총자산회전율을 사용하여 관리종목 지정을 예측하였으며, 전체 평균 예측 정확도는 검증용 데이터셋에 대해 86%의 높은 성능을 보여주었다. 의사결정나무 모형은 현금흐름/총자산과 ROA(당기순이익)를 통한 분류규칙을 적용하여 약 87%의 예측 정확도를 보여주었다. 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반의 관리종목 탐지 모형의 경우 ROE(세전계속사업이익)와 같은 구체적인 관리종목 지정 사유를 반영하면서 기업의 활동성에 초점을 맞추어 관리종목 지정 경향성을 설명하는 반면, 의사결정 관리종목 탐지 모형은 기업의 현금흐름을 중심으로 하여 관리종목 지정을 예측하는 것으로 나타났다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.2431-2449
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• 2024

As problems such as water pollution and fish species depletion have become serious, a land-based fish farming is receiving a great attention for ensuring stable productivity. In the fish farming, it is important to determine the timing of shipments, as one of key factors to increase net profit on the aquaculture. In this paper, we propose a system for predicting net profit to support decision of timing of shipment using fish farming-related statistical data. The prediction system consists of growth and farm-gate price prediction models, a cost statistics table, and a net profit estimation algorithm. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is exploited for weight prediction based on the analysis that represents the characteristics of the weight data of cultured fish under the assumption of Gaussian probability processes. Moreover, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model is applied considering the simple time series characteristics of the farm-gate price data. In the case of GPR model, it allows to cope with data missing problem of the weight data collected from the fish farm in the time and temperature domains. To solve the problem that the data acquired from the fish farm is aperiodic and small in amount, we generate the corresponding data by adopting a data augmentation method based on the Gaussian model. Finally, the estimation method for net profit is proposed by concatenating weight, price, and cost predictions. The performance of the proposed system is analyzed by applying the system to the Korean flounder data.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.600-612
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• 2014

In this paper, we consider the problem of spectrum sensing for advanced television systems committee (ATSC) digital television (DTV) signal detection. To exploit the cyclostationarity of the ATSC DTV signals, we employ spectral correlation density (SCD) as the decision statistic and propose an optimal detection algorithm. The major difficulty is in obtaining the probability distribution functions of the SCD. To overcome the difficulty, we probabilistically model the pilot frequency location and employ Gaussian approximation for the SCD distribution. Then, we obtain a practically implementable detection algorithm that outperforms the industry leading systems by 2-3 dB. We also propose various techniques that greatly reduce the system complexity with performance degradation by only a few tenths of decibels. Finally, we show how robust the system is to the estimation errors of the noise power spectral density level and the probability distribution of the pilot frequency location.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2010년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.16-24
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• 2010

This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2005년도 봄학술 발표회 논문집(II)
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• pp.249-252
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• 2005

Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Modeling the chloride ingress is an important basis for designing reinforced concrete structures and for assessing the reliability of an existing structure. The modelling is also needed for predicting the deterioration of a reinforced structure. This paper presents an approach for the probabilistic modeling of the chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement steel in concrete structures that takes into account the uncertainties in the physical models. The parameters of the models are modeled as random variables and the distribution of the corrosion time and probability of corrosion are determined by using Monte Carlo simulation. The predictions of the proposed model is very effective to do the decision-making about initiation time and deterioration degree.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권4호
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• pp.560-566
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• 2008

Today, as the power trades between generation companies and power customer are liberalized, the uncertainty level of operated power system is rapidly increased. Therefore, transmission operators as decision makers for transmission expansion are required to establish a deliberate investment plan for effective operations of transmission facilities considering forecasted conditions of power system. This paper proposes the methodology for the optimal solution of transmission expansion in deregulated power system. The paper obtains the expected value of transmission congestion cost for various scenarios by using occurrence probability. In addition, the paper assumes that increasing rates of loads are the probability distribution and indicates the location of expanded transmission line, the time for transmission expansion with the minimum cost for the future by performing the Montecarlo simulation. To minimize the investment risk as the variance of the congestion cost, Mean-Variance Markowitz portfolio theory is applied to the optimization model by the penalty factor of the variance. By the case study, the optimal solution for transmission expansion plan considering the feature of market participants is obtained.