• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.140-147
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• 1998

Since a structure carries out its given functions and purposes while it is always resisting against the external load, the capacity of the resistance in the structure within the range that will not collapse the structure itself becomes the important factor in the design of the structures. Therefore, many suggestions were proposed and noted for determining method of the collapse load. Some of the methods from the suggestions have been commonly used due to the considerations on their distinctive advantages such as the compactness of the conceptions and the convenience in the computation. However, in case when the variation becomes huge in the materials and load, the results would carry(have or contain) many uncertain elements. On the other hand, load incremental method which regards the characteristics of the probability must be more attainable method even though it might complicate the calculation. This study intends to develop a finite element model that uses the probabilistic load incremental method to estimate the collapse load, and also to compare the result of the analysis with the linear load incremental method and Turkstra's Rule.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.923-929
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• 2003

In this paper, an analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior from a statistical point of view has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.24 no.2 s.191
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• pp.110-117
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• 2007

In this paper, probabilistic distribution of chassis component fatigue life is determined statistically by applying the design of experiments and the Pearson system. To construct p - ${\varepsilon}$ - N curve, the case that fatigue data are random variables is attempted. Probabilistic density function (p.d.f) for fatigue life is obtained by the design of experiment and using this p.d.f fatigue reliability, any aimed fatigue life can be calculated. Lower control arm and rear torsion bar of chassis components are selected as examples for analysis. Component load histories which are obtained by multi-body dynamic simulation for Belsian load history are used. Finite element analysis is performed by using commercial software MSC Nastran and fatigue analysis is performed by using FE Fatigue. When strain-life curve itself is random variable, the probability density function of fatigue life has very little difference from log-normal distribution. And the cases of fatigue data are random variables, probability density functions are approximated to Beta distribution. Each p.d.f is verified by Monte-Carlo simulation.

• Composites Research
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2003

In this paper, probabilistic failure analysis based on Weibull distribution function is proposed to predict the fiber strength of composite pressure vessel. And, experimental tests were performed using fiber strand specimens, unidirectional laminate specimens and composite pressure vessels to confirm the volumetric size effect on the fiber strength. As an analytical method, the Weibull weakest link model and the sequential multi-step failure model are considered and mutually compared. The volumetric size effect shows the clearly observed tendency towards fiber strength degradation with increasing stressed volume. Good agreement of fiber strength distribution was shown between test data and predicted results for unidirectional laminate and hoop ply in pressure vessel. The site effect on fiber strength depends on material and processing factors, the reduction of fiber strength due to the stressed volume shows different values according to the variation of material and processing conditions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.187-201
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• 2008

Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.83-103
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• 2004

The methodological framework of the Level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the Level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the Level 2 PSA CET / APET is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the Level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the Level 2 PSA and to provide a formal guidance for quantifying their impacts on the PSA Level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the Level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the Level 2 PSA.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.101-115
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• 2013

This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.387-391
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• 2008

For the detection of moving objects, background subtraction methods are widely used. In case the background has variation, we need to update the background in real-time for the reliable detection of foreground objects. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) combined with probabilistic learning is one of the most popular methods for the real-time update of the background. However, it does not work well in the complex and dynamic backgrounds with high traffic regions. In this paper, we propose a new method for modelling and updating more reliably the complex and dynamic backgrounds based on the probabilistic learning and the layered processing.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.543-552
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• 2023

The design of foundations based on a deterministic approach may not be safe and reliable occasionally, since soils sometimes show considerable spatial variability, and thus, significant uncertainties in turn affect the estimation of footing bearing capacity. The design of footing on cohesionless stratums on the basis of reliability analysis has not received much attention. This paper performs two-dimensional random finite difference analyses of shallow strip footings on a spatially variable frictional soil considering correlation structure. Friction angle (ϕ) is considered as a log-normally distributed random variable and Monte Carlo Simulation is then performed to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A new approach reliability-based safety factor is defined based on various reliability levels by considering the coefficient of variation of ϕ and correlation length in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The comparison of the probabilistic safety factor and the conventional one illustrates the limitations of the deterministic safety factor and provides insight into how the heterogeneity of soils properties affects the required safety factor. Results show that the conventional safety factor of 3 can be conservative in some cases, especially for soil with low values of mean ϕ and COV_ϕ.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.397-402
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• 2003

Generally it is likely that rock mass properties are expressed not by a mean value but by values with variation due to its characteristic uncertainty. This characteristic is one of the most important parts for the design of undergound structures, but yet to be fully examined. Stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is contrary to deterministic finite element method in its concept as the former has been developed in order to take the randomness of structural systems into account. Using SFEM, the response variability of structural system can be obtained and it leads probabilistic stability of structure to be analyzed. In this study, displacement response variability of circular opening with hydrostatic stress field are analyzed in terms of rock mass properties having a certain mean and a standard deviation using the SFEM. The analyzed response variability shows that the necessity of probabilistic stability analysis of underground structures using reliable mean value and standard deviation of deformation modulus.