• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.112-119
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• 2009

Based on the study of soil water dynamics, this study is to suggest an advanced stochastic soil water model for future study for drought application. One distinguishable remark of this study is the derivation of soil water dynamic controling equation for 3-stage loss functions in order to understand the temporal behaviour of soil water with reaction to the precipitation. In terms of modeling, a model with rather simpler structure can be applied to regenerate the key characteristics of soil water behavior, and especially the probabilistic solution of the derived soil water dynamic equation can be helpful to provide better and clearer understanding of soil water behavior. Moreover, this study will be the future cornerstone of applying to more realistic phenomenon such as drought management.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.205-210
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• 2004

This paper deals with rule extraction from data using rough set theory. We construct the rule base in a hierarchical granulation structure by applying core as a classification criteria at each level. When more than one core exist, the coverage is used for the selection of an appropriate one among them to increase the classification rate and accuracy. In Addition, a probabilistic approach is suggested so that the partially useful information included in inconsistent data can be contributed to knowledge reduction in order to decrease the effect of the uncertainty or vagueness of data. As a result, the proposed method yields more proper and efficient rule base in compatability and size. The simulation result shows that it gives a good performance in spite of very simple rules and short conditionals.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.07c
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• pp.1100-1102
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• 1997

This paper presents a generalized multi-parameter distribution method for the convolution of linear combination of random variables to calculate system load flow in a conventional probabilistic approach and also presents a conceptual possibilistic approach using fuzzy set theory to manage uncertainties. The probability distribution function is transformed into an appropriate possibilistic representation under the compromise between the transformation consistency and the human updating experience. The IEEE 25-bus system is used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed algorithm.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.482-487
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• 2005

In the most current Turn-key bidding and Alternative design, is going to establish maintenance plan along with a economical assessment (VE/LCC assessment etc). Generally, establishment of maintenance plan is based on past experiences that are decided upon sensor position and amount with analytic or mechanical control section. But, it is more reasonable that maintenance plan based on level of significance for Probabilistic Risk, with presuming damage probability assessment of structural fracture scenarios. Therefore, in this study it is considered about the technique that an improved maintenance plan of railroad structures using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) on the basis of structural reliability theory. For this, in the paper, Preventive maintenance plan based on PRA is suggested with an application example of Pansong-Line (Line number 3) railway in Pusan works that actually executed Turn-key design.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.177-184
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• 2001

In this study, three most distinct types of general rigid connections are included in the modelling, with is implemented into a computer code. The cost, functions of connections are constructed by using the estimated unit cost of bolting, welding and connection-steel elements incorporating all the effect of materials, labor, and fabrication work. Bused on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of load and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local load and resistances, it is recognized to develop the design criterion compatible with domestic requirements. The existing optimum design methods, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering experience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of load and resistances and the basic reliability concepts.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.8-15
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• 2010

A new technique using a search method which is based on fuzzy multi-criteria function is proposed for GMS(generator maintenance scheduling) in order to consider multi-objective function. Not only minimization of probabilistic production cost but also maximization of system reliability level are considered for fuzzy multi-criteria function. To obtain an optimal solution for generator maintenance scheduling under fuzzy environment, fuzzy multi-criteria relaxation method(fuzzy search method) is used. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulation studies for a real size power system model in Korea in 2010.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1356-1362
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• 1996

Fracture toughness of heterogeneous brittle materials such as poly crystalline ceramics used to present the size (thickness) effect as well as statistically distributed results. There is belief that both(size effect and scatter) must be associated with each other. However, no generally accepted theory has been established so far. Using statistical approach, a probabilistic modeling for the fracture toughness which describes the thickness effect was attempted in this paper, Weibull distribution of specific fracture energy(SFE)at local areas and Griffith criterion are applied to the model. In addition, the newly developed model was verified with experimental results of alumina.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2014

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used in various technological fields to assist regulatory agencies, managerial decision makers, and systems designers in assessing and mitigating the risks inherent in these complex arrangements. Has PRA delivered on its promise? How do we gage PRA performance? Are our expectations about value of PRA realistic? Are there disparities between what we get and what we think we are getting form PRA and its various derivatives? Do current PRAs reflect the knowledge gained from actual events? How do we address potential gaps? These are some of the questions that have been raised over the years since the inception of the field more than forty years ago. This paper offers a brief assessment of PRA as a technical discipline in theory and practice, its key strengths and weaknesses, and suggestions on ways to address real and perceived shortcomings.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.258-265
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• 2017

At the early stage of the development of high speed propulsion systems, the designers suffer from the lack of both the quantity and the quality of test data. In that situation, the associated uncertainties could not be modeled as probabilistic distribution since probabilistic modelling requires large amount of data. In this paper, instead, the information provided by experts based on their experience and engineering knowledge was used to model uncertainty using the evidence theory. In designing the DCR(Dual Combustion Ramjet) engine, the combustion efficiencies, not well understood and little data existing, are assumed to have been provided by experts. And the uncertainties are quantified by Evidence theory. The quantified uncertainties are incorporated into the optimization. The design variables, area of inlet and area of combustor exit, have been found while satisfying reliability margins of thrust and thermal choking. The results show a reasonable design of the engine under the uncertain circumstances.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study estimated the load effect of a single heavy truck to develop a live load model for the design and assessment of bridges located on an expressway with a limited truck entry weight. METHODS : The statistical estimation methods for the live load effect acting on a bridge by a heavy vehicle are reviewed, and applications using the actual measurement data for trucks traveling on an expressway are presented. The weight estimation of a single vehicle and its effect on a bridge are fundamental elements in the construction of a live load model. Two statistical estimation methods for the application of extrapolation in a probabilistic study and an additional estimation method that adopts the extreme value theory are reviewed. RESULTS : The proposed methods are applied to the traffic data measured on an expressway. All of the estimation methods yield similar results using the data measured when the weight limit has been relatively well observed because of the rigid enforcement of the weight regulation. On the other hand, when the estimations are made using overweight traffic data, the resulting values differ with the estimation method. CONCLUSIONS : The estimation methods based on the extreme distribution theory and the modified procedure presented in this paper can yield reasonable values for the maximum weight of a single truck, which can be applied in both the design and evaluation of a bridge on an expressway.