• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic theory

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A Research on the Probabilistic Calculation Method of River Topographic Factors (하천 지형인자의 확률론적 산정 방식 연구)

  • Choo, Yeon-Moon;Ma, Yun-Han;Park, Sang-Ho;Sue, Jong-Chal;Kim, Yoon-Ku
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2020
  • Since the 1960s, many rivers have been polluted and destroyed due to river repair projects for economic development and the covering of small rivers due to urbanization. Many studies have analyzed rivers using measured river topographic factors, but surveying is not easy when the flow rate changes rapidly, such as during a flood. In addition, the previous research has been mainly about the cross section of a river, so information on the longitudinal profile is insufficient. This research used informational entropy theory to obtain an equation that can calculate the average river slope, river slope, and river longitudinal elevation for a river basin in real time. The applicability was analyzed through comparison with measured data of a river's characteristic factors obtained from a river plan. The parameters were calculated using informational entropy theory, nonlinear regression analysis, and actual data. The longitudinal elevation entropy equation for each stream was then calculated, and so was the average river slope. All of the values were over 0.96, so it seems that reliable results can be obtained when calculating river characteristic factors.

An Application of Artificial Intelligence System for Accuracy Improvement in Classification of Remotely Sensed Images (원격탐사 영상의 분류정확도 향상을 위한 인공지능형 시스템의 적용)

  • 양인태;한성만;박재국
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2002
  • This study applied each Neural Networks theory and Fuzzy Set theory to improve accuracy in remotely sensed images. Remotely sensed data have been used to map land cover. The accuracy is dependent on a range of factors related to the data set and methods used. Thus, the accuracy of maps derived from conventional supervised image classification techniques is a function of factors related to the training, allocation, and testing stages of the classification. Conventional image classification techniques assume that all the pixels within the image are pure. That is, that they represent an area of homogeneous cover of a single land-cover class. But, this assumption is often untenable with pixels of mixed land-cover composition abundant in an image. Mixed pixels are a major problem in land-cover mapping applications. For each pixel, the strengths of class membership derived in the classification may be related to its land-cover composition. Fuzzy classification techniques are the concept of a pixel having a degree of membership to all classes is fundamental to fuzzy-sets-based techniques. A major problem with the fuzzy-sets and probabilistic methods is that they are slow and computational demanding. For analyzing large data sets and rapid processing, alterative techniques are required. One particularly attractive approach is the use of artificial neural networks. These are non-parametric techniques which have been shown to generally be capable of classifying data as or more accurately than conventional classifiers. An artificial neural networks, once trained, may classify data extremely rapidly as the classification process may be reduced to the solution of a large number of extremely simple calculations which may be performed in parallel.

Model Development Determining Probabilistic Ramp Merge Capacity Including Forced Merge Type (강제합류 형태를 포함한 확률적 연결로 합류용량 산정 모형 개발)

  • KIM, Sang Gu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2003
  • Over the decades, a lot of studies have dealt with the traffic characteristics and phenomena at a merging area. However, relatively few analytical techniques have been developed to evaluate the traffic flow at the area and, especially, the ramp merging capacity has rarely been. This study focused on the merging behaviors that were characterized by the relationship between the shoulder lane flow and the on-ramp flow, and modeled these behaviors to determine ramp merge capacity by using gap acceptance theory. In the process of building the model, both an ideal mergence and a forced mergence were considered when ramp-merging vehicles entered the gap provided by the flow of the shoulder lane. In addition, the model for the critical gap was proposed because the critical gap was the most influential factor to determine merging capacity in the developed models. The developed models showed that the merging capacity value was on the increase as the critical gap decreased and the shoulder lane volume increased. This study has a meaning of modeling the merging behaviors including the forced merging type to determine ramp merging capacity more precisely. The findings of this study would help analyze traffic phenomena and understand traffic behaviors at a merging area, and might be applicable to decide the primary parameters of on-ramp control by considering the effects of ramp merging flow.

A Study on the One-Way Distance in the Longitudinal Section Using Probabilistic Theory (확률론적 이론을 이용한 종단면에서의 단방향 이동거리에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Ryul;Moon, Ji-Hyun;Jeon, Hae-Sung;Sue, Jong-Chal;Choo, Yeon-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2020
  • To use a hydraulic structure effectively, the velocity of a river should be known in detail. In reality, velocity measurements are not conducted sufficiently because of their high cost. The formulae to yield the flux and velocity of the river are commonly called the Manning and Chezy formulae, which are empirical equations applied to uniform flow. This study is based on Chiu (1987)'s paper using entropy theory to solve the limits of the existing velocity formula and distribution and suggests the velocity and distance formula derived from information entropy. The data of a channel having records of a spot's velocity was used to verify the derived formula's utility and showed R2 values of distance and velocity of 0.9993 and 0.8051~0.9483, respectively. The travel distance and velocity of a moving spot following the streamflow were calculated using some flow information, which solves the difficulty in frequent flood measurements when it is needed. This can be used to make a longitudinal section of a river composed of a horizontal distance and elevation. Moreover, GIS makes it possible to obtain accurate information, such as the characteristics of a river. The connection with flow information and GIS model can be used as alarming and expecting flood systems.

Evaluation of Droughts in Seoul Using Two-Dimensional Drought Frequency Analysis (이차원 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 서울지역의 가뭄 평가)

  • Yeon, Je-Mun;Byun, Sung-Ho;Lee, Jung-Kyu;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.335-343
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    • 2007
  • Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

An Introduction to Kinetic Monte Carlo Methods for Nano-scale Diffusion Process Modeling (나노 스케일 확산 공정 모사를 위한 동력학적 몬테칼로 소개)

  • Hwang, Chi-Ok;Seo, Ji-Hyun;Kwon, Oh-Seob;Kim, Ki-Dong;Won, Tae-Young
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we introduce kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) methods for simulating diffusion process in nano-scale device fabrication. At first, we review kMC theory and backgrounds and give a simple point defect diffusion process modeling in thermal annealing after ion (electron) implantation into Si crystalline substrate to help understand kinetic Monte Carlo methods. kMC is a kind of Monte Carlo but can simulate time evolution of diffusion process through Poisson probabilistic process. In kMC diffusion process, instead of. solving differential reaction-diffusion equations via conventional finite difference or element methods, it is based on a series of chemical reaction (between atoms and/or defects) or diffusion events according to event rates of all possible events. Every event has its own event rate and time evolution of semiconductor diffusion process is directly simulated. Those event rates can be derived either directly from molecular dynamics (MD) or first-principles (ab-initio) calculations, or from experimental data.

Reliability Analysis Method for Concrete Containment Structures (콘크리트 차폐(遮蔽) 구조물(構造物)의 신뢰성(信賴性) 해석방법(解析方法))

  • Han, Bong Koo;Chang, Sung Pil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 1990
  • The safety of concrete nuclear containment structures should be secured against all kinds of loading due to various natural disasters or extraordinary accidental loads. The current design criteria of concrete containment structures are not based on the reliabillty-based design concept but rely on the conventional design concept. In this paper, a probabillty-based reliability analysis were proposed based on a FEM-based random vibration analysis and serviceability limit state of structures. The limit state model defined for the study is a serviceability limit state in terms of the more realistic crack failure that might cause the emission of radioactive materials, and the results are compared with those of the strength limit state. More accurate reliability analyses under various dynamic loads such as earthquake loads were made possible by incorporation the FEM and random vibration theory, which is different from the conventional reliability analysis method. The uncertainties in loads and resistance available in Korea and the refernces were adapted to the situation of Korea, and especially in the case of earthquake, the design earthquake was assessed based on the available re ports on probabilistic description of earthquake ground acceleration in the Korea peninsula.

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Analysis and Prediction for Spatial Distribution of Functional Feeding Groups of Aquatic Insects in the Geum River (금강 수계 수서곤충 섭식기능군의 공간분포 분석 및 예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Park, Young-Jun;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

Study on Probabilistic Analysis for Fire·Explosion Accidents of LPG Vaporizer with Jet Fire (Jet Fire를 수반한 국내외 LPG 기화기의 화재·폭발사고에 관한 확률론적 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2012
  • This study collected 5,100 cases of gas accident occurred in Korea for 14 years from 1995 to 2008, established Database and based on it, analyzed them by detailed forms and reasons. As the result of analyzing the whole city gas accidents with Poisson analysis, the item of "Careless work-Explosion-Pipeline' showed the highest rate of accidents for the next 5 years. And, "Joint Losening and corrosion-Release-Pipeline" showed the lowest rate of accident. In addition, for the result of analyzing only accidents related to LPG vaporizer, "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire" showed the highest rate of accident and "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults" showed the lowest rate of accident. Also, as the result of comparing and analyzing foreign LPG accident accompanied by Jet fire, facility's defect which is liquid outflow cut-off device and heat exchanger's defect were analyzed as the main reason causing jet fire, like the case of Korea, but the number of accidents for the next 5 years was the highest in "LPG-Mechanical-Jet fire" and "LPG-Mechanical-Vapor Cloud" showed the highest rate of accidents. By grafting Poisson distribution theory onto gas accident expecting program of the future, it's expected to suggest consistent standard and be used as the scale which can be used in actual field.

An Investigation of Reliability and Safety Factors in RC Flexural Members Designed by Current WSD Standard Code (현행(現行) 허용응력설계법(許容應力設計法)으로 설계(設計)되는 RC 휨부재(部材)의 신뢰성(信賴性)과 안전율(安全率) 고찰(考察))

  • Shin, Hyun Mook;Cho, Hyo Nam;Chung, Hwan Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 1981
  • Current standard code for R.C. design consists of two conventional design parts, so called WSD and USD, which are based on ACI 318-63 and 318-71 code provisions. The safety factors of our WSD and USD design criteria which are taken primarily from ACI 318-63 code are considered to be not appropriate compared to out country's design and construction practices. Furthermore, even the ACI safety factors are not determined from probabilistic study but merely from experiences and practices. This study investigates the safety level of R.C. flexural members designed by the current WSD safety provisions based on Second Moment Reliability theory, and proposes a rational but efficient way of determining the nominal safety factors and the associated flexural allowable stresses of steel bars and concretes in order to provide a consistent level of target reliability. Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method formulae by a log normal transformation of resistance and load output variables are adopted as the reliability analysis method for this study. The compressive allowable stress formulae are derived by a unique approach in which the balanced steel ratios of the resulting design are chosen to be the corresponding under-reinforced sections designed by strength design method with an optimum reinforcing ratio. The target reliability index for the safety provisions are considered to be ${\beta}=4$ that is well suited for our level of construction and design practices. From a series of numerical applications to investigate the safety and reliability of R.C. flexural members designed by current WSD code, it has been found that the design based on WSD provision results in uneconomical design because of unusual and inconsistent reliability. A rational set of reliability based safety factors and allowable stress of steel bars and concrete for flexural members is proposed by providing the appropriate target reliability ${\beta}=4$.

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