• 제목/요약/키워드: Probabilistic reliability and production cost simulation

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공급지장기대치에 의한 적정설비예비율 결정에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Decision of Optimum Installed Reserve Rate by Loss of Load Expectation)

  • 박정제;오량;최재석;차준민;윤용범
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.103-104
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    • 2008
  • This paper proposes an alternative methodology for deciding an optimum deterministic reliability level (IRR; Installed Reserve Rate) by using probabilistic reliability criterion (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation). Additionally, case studies using the proposed method induce the characteristics of relationship between the probabilistic reliability index (LOLE) and deterministic reliability index (IRR) for 2008 year in Korea power system. The case study presents a possibility that an optimum IRR level in Korea can be assessed using the proposed method. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion in Korea is that the loss of load expectation shall not exceed the available capacity more than five day in ten years (=0.5[days/year]). The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PRASim is used in order to evaluate the relationship and optimum IRR in this paper.

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거시적방법에 의한 우리나라의 종합공급지장비단가 추정 (Evaluation of IEAR(Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates) using Macro Approach in Korea)

  • 박정제;오량;최재석;정영범;윤용범
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.309-311
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    • 2008
  • This paper introduces the characteristics of relationship between probabilistic reliability (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation) and deterministic reliability (SRR; supply reserve rate) for 2008 year in Korea power system. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion is that load shall not exceed the avaliable capacity, on the average, more than five day in ten years. The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PPHFHT was used in order to obtain the relationship in this paper.

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Flexible Maintenance Scheduling of Generation System by Multi-Probabilistic Reliability Criterion in Korea Power System

  • Park, Jeong-Je;Choi, Jae-Seok;Baek, Ung-Ki;Cha, Jun-Min;Lee, Kwang-Y.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2010
  • A new technique using a search method which is based on fuzzy multi-criteria function is proposed for GMS(generator maintenance scheduling) in order to consider multi-objective function. Not only minimization of probabilistic production cost but also maximization of system reliability level are considered for fuzzy multi-criteria function. To obtain an optimal solution for generator maintenance scheduling under fuzzy environment, fuzzy multi-criteria relaxation method(fuzzy search method) is used. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulation studies for a real size power system model in Korea in 2010.

퍼지 집합이론과 유전알고리즘을 이용한 일간 발전기 보수유지계획의 수립 (A Daily Scheduling of Generator Maintenance using Fuzzy Set Theory combined with Genetic Algorithm)

  • 오태곤;최재석;백웅기
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제60권7호
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    • pp.1314-1323
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    • 2011
  • The maintenance of generating units is implicitly related with power system reliability and has a tremendous bearing on the operation of the power system. A technique using a fuzzy search method which is based on fuzzy multi-criteria function has been proposed for GMS (generator maintenance scheduling) in order to consider multi-objective function. In this study, a new technique using combined fuzzy set theory and genetic algorithm(GA) is proposed for generator maintenance scheduling. The genetic algorithm(GA) is expected to make up for that fuzzy search method might search the local solution. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by the simulation results on a practical size test systems.

Monte Carlo법에 의한 복합전력계통의 유효부하지속곡선 작성법 및 개발 및 신뢰도 해석 (Development of the ELDC and Reliability Analysis of Composite Power System by Monte Carlo Method)

  • 문승필;최재석;신흥교;이순영;송길영
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제48권5호
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    • pp.508-516
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents a method for constructing composite power system effective load duration curves(CMELDC) at load points by Monte Carlo method. The concept of effective load duration curves(ELDC) in power system planning is useful and important in both HLII. CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the probability function of unsupplied power and the load duration curve at each load point. This concept is analogy to the ELEC in HLI. And, the reliability indices (LOLP, EDNS) for composite power system are evaluated using CMELDC. Differences in reliability levels between HLI and HLII come from considering with the uncertainty associated with the outages of the transmission system. It is expected that the CMELDC can be applied usefully to areas such as reliability evaluation, probabilistic production cost simulation and analytical outage cost assessment, etc. in HLII, DC load flow and Monte Carlo method are used for this study. The characteristics and effectiveness of thes methodology are illustrated by a case study of the IEEE RTS.

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A Study on the Fuzzy ELDC of Composite Power System Based on Probabilistic and Fuzzy Set Theories

  • Park, Jaeseok;Kim, Hongsik;Seungpil Moon;Junmin Cha;Park, Daeseok;Roy Billinton
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • 제2A권3호
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2002
  • This paper illustrates a new fuzzy effective load model for probabilistic and fuzzy production cost simulation of the load point of the composite power system. A model for reliability evaluation of a transmission system using the fuzzy set theory is proposed for considering the flexibility or ambiguity of capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines, which are subjective matter characteristics. A conventional probabilistic approach was also used to model the uncertainties related to the objective matters for forced outage rates of generators and transmission lines in the new model. The methodology is formulated in order to consider the flexibility or ambiguity of load forecasting as well as capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines. It is expected that the Fuzzy CMELDC (CoMposite power system Effective Load Duration Curve) proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems in a competitive environment in the future. The characteristics of this new model are illustrated by some case studies of a very simple test system.

Fast Hartley Transform을 이용한 확률론적 발전 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Probabilistic Generating Simulation by Fast Hartley Transform)

  • 송길영;김용하;최재석
    • 대한전기학회논문지
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    • 제39권4호
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    • pp.341-348
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    • 1990
  • This paper describes an algorithm for evaluating the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and calculating the production cost for all the generators in the system using Fast Hartley Transform (FHT). It also suggests the deconvolution procedure which is necessary for the generation expansion planning. The FHT is as fast as or faster than the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and serves for all the uses such as spectral, digital processing, and convolution to which the FFT is normally applied. The transformed function using FFT has complex numbers. However, the transformed function using FHT has real numbers and the convolution become quite simple. This method has been applied for the IEEE reliability test system and practical size model system. The test results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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퍼지이론을 이용한 유연한 발전기보수유지계획 수립에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Flexible Generator Maintenance Scheduling using Fuzzy Theory)

  • 김홍식;문승필;최재석
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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    • pp.1104-1107
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    • 1999
  • A new technique using search method based on fuzzy multi-criteria function is proposed fur flexible generator maintenance scheduling. Minimization of probabilistic production cost, maximization of system reliability level and air pollution are considered fur fuzzy multi-criteria function. To obtain an optimal solution for generator maintenance scheduling under fuzzy environment fuzzy multi-criteria relaxation method(fuzzy search method) is used. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the simulation results of the real size model system of KEPCO-1997 SYSTEM.

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효율적인 LARGE DEVIATION 방법에 의한 발전 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구 (A STUDY ON THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION BY THE EFFICIENT LARGE DEVIATION METHOD)

  • 송길영;차준민;김용하;오광해
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1990년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부
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    • pp.244-246
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    • 1990
  • This paper describes the Large Deviation Method for computing the loss-of-load-probability (L.O.L.P.) index for a generating system. Also, we introduce a rule to prevent the initial value from diverging in Newton-Raphson method which we have to use to determine the value of t. By applying the Large Deviation Method to computing the L.O.L.P. index for some representative reliability test systems, it is verified that the Large Deviation Method is generally very accurate and very fast.

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퍼지집합이론을 이용한 발전기보수유지계획수립 (Maintenance Scheduling of Generation System by Fuzzy Set Theory)

  • 박정제;최재석;백웅기;차준민
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2009년도 제40회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.127_128
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    • 2009
  • A new technique using a search method which is based on fuzzy multi-criteria function is proposed for GMS(generator maintenance scheduling) in order to consider multi-objective function. Not only minimization of probabilistic production cost but also maximization of system reliability level are considered for fuzzy multi-criteria function. To obtain an optimal solution for generator maintenance scheduling under fuzzy environment, fuzzy multi-criteria relaxation method(fuzzy search method) is used. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulation studies for a real size power system model in Korea in 2010.

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