A Study on the Decision of Optimum Installed Reserve Rate by Loss of Load Expectation

공급지장기대치에 의한 적정설비예비율 결정에 관한 연구

This paper proposes an alternative methodology for deciding an optimum deterministic reliability level (IRR; Installed Reserve Rate) by using probabilistic reliability criterion (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation). Additionally, case studies using the proposed method induce the characteristics of relationship between the probabilistic reliability index (LOLE) and deterministic reliability index (IRR) for 2008 year in Korea power system. The case study presents a possibility that an optimum IRR level in Korea can be assessed using the proposed method. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion in Korea is that the loss of load expectation shall not exceed the available capacity more than five day in ten years (=0.5[days/year]). The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PRASim is used in order to evaluate the relationship and optimum IRR in this paper.