• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.246-247
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• 2019

This study was conducted to provide useful information to enable planned repair and cost planning during the operation and maintenance phase of aged multi-family housing. For this purpose, The concept of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis considering the risk factors of the aged multi-family housing is presented in the following six steps. 1. Risk factor investigation and analysis 2. Classification and deriving of maintenance cost 3. Investigation and deriving cost maintenance cost of old apartment house 4. Analysis of expert questionnaire 5. Analysis of Monte -Carlo simulation 6. Probabilistic maintenance cost Deriving the result. This study has limitations that need to be verified by applying actual data.

• 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.41-48
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• 2018

Carbonation is one of the major detrimental factors to the reinforced concrete structures owing to penetration of atmospheric CO2 through the micro pores, thereby it reduces the durability of the concrete. The maintenance periods and cost for concrete according to the coefficient variation of different finishing materials is documented in literature. However, it is required to carry out the systematic and well planned studies. Therefore, keeping them in mind, surface repair was carried out to the carbonated concrete and the maintenance cost was calculated to measure the durability life after repair with different variable. The deterministic and probabilistic methods were applied for durability and repair cost of the concrete. In the existing deterministic model, the cost of repair materials increases significantly when the concrete structure reaches its service life. In present study using a stochastic model, the maintenance period and cost was evaluated. According to obtained results, there was no significant difference in the number of maintenance of the coefficient variation. The initial durability has a great influence on the maintenance time and cost of the structure. Unlike the deterministic model, the probabilistic cost estimating model reduces the number of maintenance to the target service life expectancy.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.418-428
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• 2005

In this paper, a new probabilistic generation modeling method which can address the characteristics of changed electricity industry is proposed. The major contribution of this paper can be captured in the development of a probabilistic generation modeling considering generator maintenance outage and in the classification of market demand into multiple demand clusters for the applications to electricity markets. Conventional forced outage rates of generators are conceptually combined with maintenance outage of generators and, consequently, effective outage rates of generators are newly defined in order to properly address the probabilistic characteristic of generation in electricity markets. Then, original market demands are classified into several distinct demand clusters, which are defined by the effective outage rates of generators and by the inherent characteristic of the original demand. We have found that generators have different effective outage rates values at each classified demand cluster, depending on the market situation. From this, therefore, it can be seen that electricity markets can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns and that the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be more efficiently analyzed in electricity markets perspectives, for this classification can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power systems such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, price forecasts, and so on.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권4호
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• pp.505-511
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• 2018

Long term capacity expansion planning has to be carried out to satisfy pre-defined system reliability criterion. For purpose of assessing system reliability, probabilistic simulation technique has been widely adopted. However, the way how to approximate generator outage, especially maintenance outage, in probabilistic simulation scheme can significantly influence on reliability assessment. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance approximation methods are applied to investigate the quantitative impact of maintenance approximation method on long term capacity expansion planning.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 1992

Proper resource allocation is also a very important topic in power system problems, especially in operation and planning. One such is optimal maintenance problem in operation and planning. Least cost and highest reliability should be the subjects to be pursued. A probabilistic operation simulation model developed recently by authors is applied to the proboem of optimal maintenance scheduling. Three different methods are compared, marginal maintenance cost, levelized risk and maintenance space. The method by the marginal maintenance costs shows the least cost, the highest reliability and the highest maintenance outage rates. This latter characteristics may considerably influence the results of genetation planning, because the usual maintenance outages obtained from the other methods have shown to be lower.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.449-456
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• 2021

Impatience characteristics are an important factor to be considered in the defense field, which is sensitive to time, but there are not many cases applied. In addition, due to the difficulty of analysis that must consider various probabilistic factors (breakdown/maintenance distribution, impatience characteristics, etc.), military decision makers consider only simple data (number of occurrences per year, maintenance time, etc.) Therefore, in this study, a model capable of analyzing the performance of the emergency maintenance system for determining the appropriate size and organization of military and civilian maintenance personnel was presented in consideration of impatience characteristics and probabilistic factors. And through numerical analysis, the appropriate size of the military and civilian emergency maintenance teams was analyzed. This study is significant in that it can improve readiness of operational power and prevent waste of defense budget through efficient operation of the military's emergency maintenance system.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제66권12호
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• pp.1712-1720
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• 2017

In South Korea, minimum reserve rate, which is to satisfy reliability standard, has been determined by simulation result using WASP. But, it is still controversial whether the level of minimum reserve rate is adequate. Thus, in this study, various analyses of minimum reserve rate are being conducted. WASP uses the probabilistic simulation technique to evaluate whether reliability standard is satisfied. In this process, forced outage rate and maintenance periods of each generator play important roles. Especially, the long-term plan can be varied depending on how maintenance periods deal with. In order to model maintenance periods in the probabilistic simulation technique, WASP uses derating method. However, broad analyses have to be conducted because there are various ways including derating method to model maintenance periods which result in different results. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance outage rate modeling methods are applied to arbitrarily modeled system based on the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand of South Korea. Results show impact of each modeling method on minimum reserve rate.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1988년도 전기.전자공학 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.855-858
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• 1988

Two methods for probabilistic maintenance scheduling are developed and compared ; one with operation and supplied-shortage cost and other with risk level of LOLP. Based on the real economic power dispatch, quadratic optimal maintenance conditions are obtained and simple amtrix equations are suggested for solutions. Both methods are compared in a sample system of 26,000 [MW] peak and 32,000 [MW] generation capacity.

• 교육시설 논문지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.3-12
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• 2018

Educational facilities are more uncertain about maintenance costs due to their comprehensive and long life-cycle compared to commercial buildings. In addition, maintenance of the existing post management system can not maintain the original function of education facilities continuously and economically. In order to overcome this problem, it is necessary to analyze the repair and replacement cost for the uncertainty factor in maintenance. This study propose a model to determine repair and maintenance cost and cycle of educational facility based on probabilistic estimation concept. For the analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, a probabilistic analysis method, was applied based on the repair and maintenance history data of the educational facilities in Florida. The results of this study can be used as a guideline for quantitative facility management and facility management research.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.482-487
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• 2005

In the most current Turn-key bidding and Alternative design, is going to establish maintenance plan along with a economical assessment (VE/LCC assessment etc). Generally, establishment of maintenance plan is based on past experiences that are decided upon sensor position and amount with analytic or mechanical control section. But, it is more reasonable that maintenance plan based on level of significance for Probabilistic Risk, with presuming damage probability assessment of structural fracture scenarios. Therefore, in this study it is considered about the technique that an improved maintenance plan of railroad structures using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) on the basis of structural reliability theory. For this, in the paper, Preventive maintenance plan based on PRA is suggested with an application example of Pansong-Line (Line number 3) railway in Pusan works that actually executed Turn-key design.