• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.70-79
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• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권12호
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• pp.638-646
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• 2002

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for evaluating the Profit and revenue of generating units in a competitive electricity market based on the probabilistic production costing technique. The accurate evaluation of the profit and revenue of generating units for long-term perspectives is one of the most important issues in a competitive electricity market environment. For efficient calculation of the profit and revenue of generating units under the equivalent load duration curve(ELDC), a new approach to figure out the marginal plants and the corresponding market clearing prices during a time period in a probabilistic manner is developed. The mathematical formulation and illustrative application of the suggested method is presented.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제50권9호
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• pp.431-439
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• 2001

This Paper illustrates a new numerical analysis method using a nodal effective load model for nodal probabilistic production cost simulation of the load point in a composite power system. The new effective load model includes capacities and uncertainties of generators as well as transmission lines. The CMELDC(composite power system effective load duration curve) based on the new effective load model at HLll(Hierarchical Level H) has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. It is expected that the new model for the CMELDC proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLll will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of MRBTS(Modified Roy Billinton Test System).

• 한국심리학회지 : 문화 및 사회문제
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• 제9권spc호
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• pp.123-147
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• 2003

이 연구에서는 토착 문화심리학을 토대로 사고와 안전에 대한 확률론적인 시각과 결정론적인 시각을 비교 분석하였다. 한국뿐만 아니라 대부분의 선진국이나 개발도상국에서 사고로 인한 사망과 재해는 예방이 가능하다. 이 연구의 첫 번째 부분에서는 사회과학과 응용과학에서 채택되어온 선형의 결정론적인 모형의 한계에 대해 설명하였다. 가정 직장과 사회에서 발생하는 사고와 안전의 확률론적인 속성에 대한 이해를 위해, 토착 문화심리학에서 주장되어온 상호작용 모형이 제안되었다. 두 번째로는 사고와 안전에 관련된 요소들을 검토하였다. 세 번째로는 한국사회에서 사고를 예방하고 안전을 증진하기 위해 확률론적 모형의 활용에 대해 설명하였다.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.20-36
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• 2024

요 지 : 본 연구에서는 먼저 우리나라 해역별 해양환경 특성이 담긴 장기 파랑 관측자료로부터 Goda 모형을 활용하여 파력과 양력 시계열자료를 생성하였다. 이어 이렇게 생성된 시계열자료부터 Three-parameter Weibull distribution에 기반한 파력과 양력 확률모형을 개발하였다. 해역별로 다른 우리나라 해양환경은 파력과 양력 확률모형 모수에서도 그 차이를 확연하게 드러내었다. 충분히 발달한 풍성 파가 우월한 남해안의 경우 큰 Scale Coefficient, 작은 Location Coefficient, 1.3 전후의 Shape Coefficient로 특정되는 것을 확인하였다. 이에 비해 파랑의 성장이 취송거리에 의해 제한되는 서해를 마주하고 있는 군산의 경우 작은 Scale Coefficient, 큰 Location Coefficient, 2.0 전후의 Shape Coefficient로 특정되었다. 서해와 남해가 만나는 해역을 마주하고 있는 목포의 경우 작은 Scale Coefficient, 큰 Location Coefficient, 제일 작은 Shape Coefficient를 지녀 남해와 서해의 해양환경이 혼재한다는 사실도 확인할 수 있었다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제24권68호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2001

A probabilistic model for fatigue life of a structural component is derived when the component is in a variable-amplitude loading environment. The physical mechanism which governs fatigue failure is used to model the fatigue life. Especially, the judgement of rotational symmetry in the-stress-intensity-factors results in the probability distribution for fatigue life. The probability distribution is related to the familiar truncated Gaussian distribution, which has a single parameter with a direct physical meaning.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제27권2_1호
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• pp.249-256
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• 2024

Traditional methods for monitoring targets rely heavily on probabilistic data association (PDA) or Kalman filtering. However, achieving optimal performance in a densely congested tracking environment proves challenging due to factors such as the complexities of measurement, mathematical simplification, and combined target detection for the tracking association problem. This article analyzes a target tracking problem through the lens of fuzzy logic theory, identifies the fuzzy rules that a fuzzy tracker employs, and designs the tracker utilizing fuzzy rules and Kalman filtering.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제5권6호
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• pp.674-680
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• 2007

The probabilistic roadmap (PRM) method, which is a popular path planning scheme, for a manipulator, can find a collision-free path by connecting the start and goal poses through a roadmap constructed by drawing random nodes in the free configuration space. PRM exhibits robust performance for static environments, but its performance is poor for dynamic environments. On the other hand, reinforcement learning, a behavior-based control technique, can deal with uncertainties in the environment. The reinforcement learning agent can establish a policy that maximizes the sum of rewards by selecting the optimal actions in any state through iterative interactions with the environment. In this paper, we propose efficient real-time path planning by combining PRM and reinforcement learning to deal with uncertain dynamic environments and similar environments. A series of experiments demonstrate that the proposed hybrid path planner can generate a collision-free path even for dynamic environments in which objects block the pre-planned global path. It is also shown that the hybrid path planner can adapt to the similar, previously learned environments without significant additional learning.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.345-353
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• 2008

In order to design storage-based non-point source management facilities, the aspect of statistical features of the entire precipitation time series should be considered since non-point source pollutions are delivered by continuous rainfall runoffs. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function instead of traditional single-parameter exponential probability density function is applied to represent the probabilistic features of long-term precipitation time series and model urban stormwater runoff. Finally, probability density functions of water quality control basin overflow are derived under two extreme intial conditions. The 31-year continuous precipitation time series recorded in Busan are analyzed to show that the 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function gives better resolution.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집(제1권)
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• pp.261-267
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• 2006

소요장치량은 컨테이너터미널의 장치능력을 결정짓는 매우 중요한 의사결정 변수이다. 일반적으로 소요장치량은 모선의 배선간격, 장치허용기간, 본선작업시간 등 여러 요인들에 좌우된다. 그러나 지금까지는 이들 요인이 확정적이라는 가정 하에 다양한 방법들을 소요장치량 산정에 적용해왔다. 본 연구는 본선작업 물량이 확률적인 것으로 가정하고 서비스수준을 만족시키는 소요장치량의 산정 방법을 제시했다. 시뮬레이션을 이용한 수치실험은 제시된 방법이 다른 방법들에 비해 확률적 상황에서 더욱 정확한 소요장치량을 산정할 수 있음을 보여주었다.