• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.249-265
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• 1987

고준위 방사성폐기물 처분장에 대한 확률론적 위험도 평가를 위해 지금까지 많은 방법들이 제안되어 왔다. 이 계는 많은 불확실성을 갖는 입력 변수들을 갖고 있어서 이 입력변수들에 대해 계산된 위험도 역시 많은 불착실성을 갖는다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 점들을 조직적으로 분석하기 위하여 여러가지 불확실도 및 민감도 분석 방법들이 개발되었고 고준위 폐기물 처분장의 위험도 평가에 적용되었다. 본 논문을 통해 개발된 통계 패키지 SPUSA는 통계적 열여유도 분석, 방사선원 불확실도 분석등 등의 분야에도 사용될 수 있다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.157-163
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• 2018

This paper describes design improvement to a research rector for safety enhancement using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). This PSA under reactor design was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA reported here is a Level 1 PSA, which addresses the risks associated with the core damage. The technical objectives of this study were to identify accident sequences leading to core damage and to derive design improvement from the dominant accident sequences through the sensitivity analysis. The AIMS-PSA and FTREX were used for the this PSA of the research reactor. The criterion for inclusion was all sequences with a point estimate frequency greater than a truncation value of 1.0E-14/yr. The final result indicates a point estimate of 6.79E-05/yr for the overall Core Damage Frequency (CDF) attributable to internal initiating events for the research reactor under design. Based on the dominant accident sequences from the PSA, the seven kinds of sensitivity analysis were performed and some design improvement items were derived. When the five methods to improve the safety were all applied to the reactor design and emergency operating procedure, its risk was reduced to about 1.21E-06/yr from 6.79E-05/yr. The contribution of LOCA and LOEP with high CDF were significantly reduced by the sensitivity analysis. The safety of the research reactor was well improved and the risk was reduced than before adapting the design improvement gotten from the sensitivity analysis. The present study indicated that the research reactor has the well-balanced safety in regard to each initiating event contribution to CDF. The PSA methodology is very effective to improve reactor safety in a conceptual design phase and especially, Risk-informed design(RID) is very nice way to find the deficiencies of research reactor under design and to improve the reactor safety by solving them.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.265-271
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• 2015

The tsunami hazard analysis is performed for testing the application of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to nuclear power plant sites in the Korean Peninsula. Tsunami hazard analysis is based on the seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic method is adopted for considering the uncertainties caused by insufficient information of tsunamigenic fault sources. Logic tree approach is used. Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site is selected for this study. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan (East Sea) are used for this study because those are well known fault sources in the East Sea and had several records of tsunami hazards. We have performed numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for those fault sources in the previous study. Therefore we use the wave parameters obtained from the previous study. We follow the method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) suggested by the atomic energy society of Japan (AESJ). Annual exceedance probabilities for wave height level are calculated for the site by using the information about the recurrence interval, the magnitude range, the wave parameters, the truncation of lognormal distribution of wave height, and the deviation based on the difference between simulation and record. Effects of each parameters on tsunami hazard are tested by the sensitivity analysis, which shows that the recurrence interval and the deviation dominantly affects the annual exceedance probability and the wave heigh level, respectively.

• 소음진동
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.783-791
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• 2000

This describes a study on the support location optimizations of the beams using the genetic algorithm and the sensitivity analysis. The genetic algorithm is a probabilistic method searching the optimum at several points simultaneously and requiring only the values of the object and constraint functions. It has therefore more chances to find the global solution and can be applied to the various problems. Nevertheless, it has such a shortcoming that it takes too many calculations, because it is ineffective in local search. While the traditional method using sensitivity analysis is of great advantage in searching the near optimum. thus the combination of the two techniques will make use of the individual advantages, that is, the superiority in global searching form the genetic algorithm and that in local searching form the sensitivity analysis. In this thesis, for the practical applications, the analysis is conducted by FEB ; and as the shapes of structures are taken as the design variation, it requires re-meshing for every analysis. So if it is not properly controlled, the result of the analysis is affected and the optimized solution amy not be the real one. the method is efficiently applied to the problems which the traditional methods are not working properly.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.203-214
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• 2000

Health risk assessment is applied to streamlining LCA(Life Cycle Assessment) using Monte carlo simulation for probabilistic/stochastic exposure and risk distribution analysis caused by data variability and uncertainty. A case study was carried out to find benefits of this application. BTC(Benzene, Trichloroethylene, Carbon tetrachloride mixture alias) personal exposure cases were assumed as production worker(in workplace), manager(in office) and business man(outdoor). These cases were different from occupational retention time and exposure concentration for BTC consumption pattern. The result of cancer risk in these 3 scenario cases were estimated as $1.72E-4{\pm}1.2E+0$(production worker; case A), $9.62E-5{\pm}1.44E-5$(manger; case B), $6.90E-5{\pm}1.16E+0$(business man; case C), respectively. Portions of over acceptable risk 1.00E-4(assumed standard) were 99.85%, 38.89% and 0.61%, respectively. Estimated BTC risk was log-normal pattern, but some of distributions did not have any formal patterns. Except first impact factor(BTC emission quantity), sensitivity analysis showed that main effective factor was retention time in their occupational exposure sites. This case study is a good example to cover that LCA with probabilistic risk analysis tool can supply various significant information such as statistical distribution including personal/environmental exposure level, daily time activity pattern and individual susceptibility. Further research is needed for investigating real data of these input variables and personal exposure concentration and application of this study methodology.

• 한국자기학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.203-207
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• 2015

본 논문에서는 전동기 제작과정에서 발생하는 제작공차가 유도전동기 성능에 미치는 영향력을 분석하기 위하여 확률론적 해석기법을 도입하였다. 단변수 차원 감소법을 사용하여 특정한 확률분포를 갖는 설계변수에 의해 발생하는 성능함수의 확률분포 특성을 예측하였다. 또한 확률성능함수의 평균과 분산의 민감도 정보를 도출함으로써 개별 설계변수의 임의성이 확률성능함수의 분포에 미치는 영향력을 분석하였다. 제안된 기법은 간단한 수학예제와 유도전동기 모델에 적용하여 그 효율성과 정밀도를 검증하였다.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2005

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.764-775
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• 2020

Periodic safety reviews (PSRs) are conducted on operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and have been mandated also for research reactors in Korea, in response to the Fukushima accident. One safety review tool, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aims to identify weaknesses in the design and operation of the research reactor, and to evaluate and compare possible safety improvements. However, the PSA for research reactors is difficult due to scarce data availability. An important element in the analysis of research reactors is the reactor protection system (RPS), with its functionality and importance. In this view, we consider that of the AGN-201K, a zero-power reactor without forced decay heat removal systems, to demonstrate a risk-informed safety improvement study. By incorporating risk- and safety-significance importance measures, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, the proposed method identifies critical components in the RPS reliability model, systematically proposes potential safety improvements and ranks them to assist in the decision-making process.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제22권9호
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• pp.889-895
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• 2012

A vertical launching system(VLS) is a system for holding and firing missiles on surface ships. When a missile is launched in VLS, relative motion between canister and missile and drag force induced by wind can cause initial unstability of a missile. Thus dynamic analysis of initial behavior of vertically launched missile should be performed to prevent collision with any structure of a ship. In this study, dynamic analyses of initial behavior of vertically launched missile are performed using Monte-Carlo simulation, which relys on random sampling and probabilistic distribution of variables. Each parameter related with dynamic behavior of a missile is modeled with probability variables and Recurdyn, a commercial software for multi body dynamic analysis, is used to perform Monte-Carlo simulation. As a result, initial behavior of a missile is evaluated with respect to various performance indexes in a probabilistic sense and sensitivity of the each parameters is calculated.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.461-466
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• 2013

섬유강화 복합재료는 무게 절감을 위해 다양한 공학 분야에 널리 사용되고 있다. 각 층의 재료 물성치는 일반적인 금속재료에 비해 더 불확실한 것으로 알려져 있으며 하중 방향에 따라 매우 민감하게 반응한다. 그러므로, 복합재 적층판의 설계에서 불확실성을 고려하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 COMSOL과 MATLAB을 이용하여 끝단 변위가 설계 요구조건으로 정의된 경우, 재료 물성치를 확률변수로 하는 복합재 적층판에 대한 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. 또한 근사기법의 효율성과 정확성을 확인하고 확률론적 민감도 해석을 수행하였다. 결과적으로 수중 비행체의 비행자세 안정장치에 대한 개선된 설계 방법의 적용가능성을 제시할 수 있었다.