• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.484-491
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• 2005

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analyzes potential hazard of microorganisms on public health and offers structured approach to assess risks associated with microorganisms in foods. This paper addresses specific risk management questions associated with Staphylococcus aureus in kimbab and improvement and dissemination of QMRA methodology, QMRA model was developed by constructing four nodes from retail to table pathway. Predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate levels of S. aureus in kimbab at time of consumption, Due to lack of dose-response models, final level of S. aureus in kimbeb was used as proxy for potential hazard level, based on which possibility of contamination over this level and consumption level of S. aureus through kimbab were estimated as 30.7% and 3.67 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression sensitivity results showed time-temperature during storage at selling was the most significant factor. These results suggested temperature control under $10^{\circ}C$ was critical control point for kimbab production to prevent growth of S. aureus and showed QMRA was useful for evaluation of factors influencing potential risk and could be applied directly to risk management.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.43-51
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• 2011

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to investigate the arsenic (As) contaminations in polished rice cultivated nearby abandoned mine areas, and to estimate the potential health risk through dietary intake of As-enriched polished rice in each age-gender population. METHODS AND RESULTS: The As contents in polished rice grown fifteen abandoned mine areas were analyzed. The average daily intake (ADD) as well as probabilistic health risk were estimated by assuming probability distribution of exposure parameters. The average total As concentration in polished rice was $0.09{\pm}0.06$ mg/kg with a range of 0.02~0.35 mg/kg. For health risk assessment, the ADD values in all age-gender populations did not exceed the provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI) of 2.1 ${\mu}g/kg$ b.w./day for inorganic As. Cancer risk probability (R) values were $2.45{\sim}3.28{\times}10^{-4}$ and $2.51{\sim}5.75{\times}10^{-4}$ for all age population and gender population, respectively. Particularly, the R value, $5.75{\times}10^{-4}$, for children less than six years old were estimated to be high. Hazard quotient (HQ) values were 0.23~0.31 and 0.11~0.33 for general population and age-gender population, respectively. CONCLUSION(s): The average R values assessed via intake of polished rice cultivated in abandoned mine areas exceeded the acceptable cancer risk of $10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-4}$ for regulatory purpose. Considering the HQ values smaller than 1.0, potential non-cancer toxic effects may not be caused by the long-time exposure through intake of As-contaminated polished rice.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.273-279
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of an Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses lot this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be calculated by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms in implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is modeled as a parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or conventional system reliability analysis method.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.573-586
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• 2019

A seismic hazard map based on spatial analysis of various sources of geologic seismic information was developed and assessed for regional seismic vulnerability in South Korea. The indicators for assessment were selected in consideration of the geological characteristics affecting the seismic damage. Probabilistic seismic hazard and fault information were used to be associated with the seismic activity hazard and bedrock depth related with the seismic damage hazard was also included. Each indicator was constructed of spatial information using GIS and geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging, line density mapping and simple kriging with local varying means. Three spatial information constructed were integrated by assigning weights according to the research purpose, data resolution and accuracy. In the case of probabilistic seismic hazard and fault line density, since the data uncertainty was relatively high, only the trend was intended to be reflected firstly. Finally, the seismic activity hazard was calculated and then integrated with the bedrock depth distribution as seismic damage hazard indicator. As a result, a seismic hazard map was proposed based on the analysis of three spatial data and the southeast and northwest regions of South Korea were assessed as having high seismic hazard. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for constructing seismic risk management systems to minimize earthquake disasters.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.35-42
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• 2012

We propose a probabilistic method to evaluate the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the soil of nuclear power plant(NPP) sites corresponding to that of a bedrock site. To do this, amplification factors on the surface of soil sites were estimated through site response analysis while considering the uncertainty in the earthquake ground motion and soil deposit characteristics. The amplification factors were calculated by regression analysis with spectral acceleration because these two factors are mostly correlated. The proposed method was applied to the evaluation of UHS for the KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) and the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) nuclear power plant sites of B1, B4, C1 and C3. The most dominant frequency range with respect to the annual frequency of earthquakes was evaluated from the UHS analysis. It can be expected that the proposed method will improve the results of integrated risk assessments of NPPs rationally. We expect also that the proposed method will be applied to the evaluation of the UHS and of many other kinds of soil sites.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.269-272
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• 2008

The seismic fragility curves of a structure represents the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage given various levels of ground motion intensityand the seismic fragility curve is essential to evaluation of structural performance and assessment of risk and loss of structures. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility functions for bridge structures in Koreaby reviewing those of advanced countries. Therefore, at first, we investigated development conditions of the seismic fragility functions. And the next highway bridges in Korea are classified into a number of categories and several typical bridges are selected to estimate seismic fragilities for using this analysis method in Korea. Finally, fragility curves for PSC Box girder bridge are estimated. The results show that the bridge classification and damage state play an important role in estimation of seismic damage and seismic fragility analysis for bridge structures.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.3
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• pp.371-381
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• 2016

This paper presents a study on reliability assessment and new contribution function development of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). This paper develops and proposes new reliability contribution function of BESS installed at wind farms. The methodology of reliability assessment, using Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) method to simulate sample state duration, is proposed in detail. Forced Outage Rate(FOR) considered probabilistic approach for conventional generators is modelled in this paper. The penetration of large wind power can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Although the fluctuation of wind power, BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. Using small size system as similar as Jeju island power system, a case study of reliability evaluation and new proposed contribution function of power system containing WTG combined with BESS is demonstrated in this paper, which would contributes to BESS reliability contribution and assessment tools of actual power system in future.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.359-374
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• 2017

The seismic events in Northern Italy, May 2012, have revealed the seismic vulnerability of typical Italian precast industrial buildings. The aim of this paper is to present a seismic fragility model for Italian RC precast buildings, to be used in earthquake loss estimation and seismic risk assessment by comparing two building typologies and three different codes: D.M. 3-03-1975, D.M. 16-01-1996 and current Italian building code that has been released in 2008. Based on geometric characteristics and design procedure applied, ten different building classes were identified. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed for each building class in order to generate the building stock used for the development of fragility curves trough analytical method. The probabilistic distributions of geometry were mainly obtained from data collected from 650 field surveys, while the material properties were deduced from the code in place at the time of construction or from expert opinion. The structures were modelled in 2D frameworks; since the past seismic events have identified the beam-column connection as the weakest element of precast buildings, two different modelling solutions were adopted to develop fragility curves: a simple model with post processing required to detect connection collapse and an innovative modelling solution able to reproduce the real behaviour of the connection during the analysis. Fragility curves were derived using both nonlinear static and dynamic analysis.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.7
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• pp.1414-1422
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• 2017

Remote response technology has advanced to the extent that a robot system, if properly designed and deployed, may greatly help respond to beyond-design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants. Particularly in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, there is increasing interest in developing disaster robots that can be deployed in lieu of a human operator to the field to perform mitigating actions in the harsh environment caused by extreme natural hazards. The nuclear robotics team of the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) is also endeavoring to construct disaster robots and, first of all, is interested in finding out to what extent safety benefits can be achieved by such a disaster robotic system. This paper discusses a new approach based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique, which can be used to quantify safety benefits associated with disaster robots, along with a case study for seismic-induced station blackout condition. The results indicate that to avoid core damage in this special case a robot system with reliability > 0.65 is needed because otherwise core damage is inevitable. Therefore, considerable efforts are needed to improve the reliability of disaster robots, because without assurance of high reliability, remote response techniques will not be practically used.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.11-16
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• 2013

This paper presents a unified control algorithm of independent braking and steering for collision avoidance. The desired motion of the vehicle in the yaw plane is determined using the probabilistic risk assessment method based on target state estimation. For the purpose of coordinating the independent braking and steering, a non-linear vehicle model has been developed, which describes the vehicle dynamics in the yaw plane in both linear and extended non-linear ranges of handling. A control allocation algorithm determines the control inputs that minimize the difference between the desired and actual vehicle motions, while satisfying all actuator constraints. The performance of the proposed control algorithm has been investigated via computer simulations conducted using the vehicle dynamics software CARSIM and Matlab/Simulink.