• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.345.1-345
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• 1999

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.18 no.1 s.91
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• pp.101-108
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• 2006

Accurate prediction of time-dependent column shortening is essential for tall buildings in both strength and serviceability aspects. The uncertainty associated with assumed values for concrete properties such as strength, creep, and shrinkage coefficients should be considered for the prediction of time-dependent column shortening of tall concrete buildings. In this study, the column shortenings of 41-story tall concrete building are predicted using monte carlo simulation technique based on the probabilistic analysis. The probabilistic column shortenings considering confidence intervals are compared with the actual column shortenings by field measurement. The time-dependent strains measured at tall bearing wall building were generally lower than the predicted strains and the measured values fell within a range ${\mu}-1.64$, confidence level 90%.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.48-55
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• 2016

The assessment and prediction of service life of a structure are usually under uncertainty so that rational probabilistic concepts and methods have to be applied. Based on these rational assessment and prediction, optimum maintenance strategies to minimize the life-cycle cost and/or maximize the structural safety can be established. The service life assessment and prediction considering maintenance actions generally includes effects of maintenance types and times of the structural components on the service life extensions of structural system. Existing researches on the service life management have revealed the appropriate system modeling considering the correlation among the components is required for system reliability analysis and probabilistic service life estimation. However, the study on correlation among the maintenance actions is still required. This paper deals with such a study for more effective and efficient service life management. In this paper, both the preventive and essential maintenances are considered for the extended service life estimation and management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.6 s.155
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• pp.471-483
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• 2005

A monthly Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system was developed by applying a daily rainfall-runoff model known as the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model to the Han, Nakdong, and Seomjin River basins in Korea. This study first assesses the accuracy of the averaged monthly runoffs simulated by SSARR for the 3 basins and proposes some improvements. The study found that the SSARR modeling of the Han and Nakdong River basins tended to significantly underestimate the actual runoff levels and the modeling of the Seomjin River basinshowed a large error variance. However, by implementing optimal linear correction (OLC), the accuracy of the SSARR model was considerably improved in predicting averaged monthly runoffs of the Han and Nakdong River basins. This improvement was not seen in the modeling of the Seomjin River basin. In addition, the ESP system was applied to forecast probabilistic runoff forecasts one month in advance for the 3 river basins from 1998 to 2003. Considerably improvement was also achieved with OLC in probabilistic forecasting accuracy for the Han and Nakdong River basins, but not in that of the Seomjin River basin.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.255-261
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• 2009

Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

• Korean Journal of Acupuncture
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.18-32
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• 2016

Objectives : This study aims to analyze the co-occurrence of pathological symptoms and corresponding acupoints as documented by the comprehensive acupuncture and moxibustion records in the classical texts of Far East traditional medicine as an aid to a more efficient understanding of the tacit treatment principles of ancient physicians. Methods : The Classic of Nourishing Life with Acupuncture and Moxibustion(Zhenjiu Zisheng Jing; hereinafter ZZJ) was selected as the primary reference book for the analysis. The pathology-acupoint co-occurrence analysis was performed by applying 4 values of vector space measures(weighted Euclidean distance, Euclidean distance, $Cram\acute{e}r^{\prime}s$ V and Canberra distance), which measure the distance between the observed and expected co-occurrence counts, and 3 values of probabilistic measures(association strength, Fisher's exact test and Jaccard similarity), which measure the probability of observed co-occurrences. Results : The treatment records contained in ZZJ were preprocessed, which yielded 4162 pathology-acupoint sets. Co-occurrence was performed applying 7 different analysis variables, followed by a prediction simulation. The prediction simulation results revealed the Weighted Euclidean distance had the highest prediction rate with 24.32%, followed by Canberra distance(23.14%) and association strength(21.29%). Conclusions : The weighted Euclidean distance among the vector space measures and the association strength among the probabilistic measures were verified to be the most efficient analysis methods in analyzing the correlation between acupoints and pathologies found in the classical medical texts.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.4 no.4 s.14
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Pavement Management System has a special purpose that the rehabilitation strategy applied on pavement should be executable in view of technical and economical point after new pavement open to the traffic. To achieve that purpose, a reliable pavement performance prediction model should be embeded in the system. The object of this study is to develop a probabilistic pavement performance prediction model for evaluating asphalt pavements based on the Markov chain concept. In this paper, methodology of the Markov chain modeling principle is explained, and the application of this model to asphalt pavement is described. As the results, transition matrics for predicting asphalt pavement performance are obtained, and also performance life is estimated quantitatively by this system.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

This paper focuses on a newly designed ice load formula based on the ARAON's 2016 Arctic field data in order to improve a structural design against ice loads. The strain gage signals from ARAON's hull plating were converted to the local ice pressure upon the hull plating using the influence coefficient matrix and finite element analysis. First, a traditional pressure-area relationship is derived by applying probabilistic approaches to handle the strains measured onboard the ARAON. Then, the local ice load prediction formula is re-analyzed after reviewing the ARAON's additional field data to consider information about the ship speed and thickness of the sea ice. It is shown that the newly developed pressure-area relationship well reflects the influence of other design parameters such as the ship speed and ice thickness in the prediction of local ice loads on Arctic vessels.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.29 no.12
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• pp.926-939
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• 2002

The formal specification methods with probability have been demanded in the area of fault real-time systems, in order to specify the uncertainty that the systems can encounter during their execution due to various environmental factors. This paper presents a new formal method with probability. namely Probabilistic Abstract Timed Machine (PATM), in order to analyze and predict system's behavior in dynamical environmental changes, This method classifies the factors into two classes: the variable and the constant. The analysis of system's behavior is performed on the probabilistic reachability graph generated from the ATM specification for the system. The analysis can predict any possibility that the behavior may not satisfy some safety requirements of the system, indicate which variable factors cause such satisfaction, and further recover from this unsatisfying fault state by fixing the variable factors. Consequently the reliability to the fault real-time systems can be improved.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.7
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• pp.607-614
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• 2016

The well-timed water management is required to reduce drought damages. It is also necessary to induce residents in drought-affected areas to save water. Information on future storage is important in managing water resources based on the current and future states of drought. This study employed a kernel function to develop a probabilistic model for predicting dam storage considering inflow uncertainty. This study also investigated the application of the proposed probabilistic model during the extreme drought. This model can predict a probability of temporal variation of storage. Moreover, the model can be used to make a long-term plan since it can identify a temporal change of storage and estimate a required reserving volume of water to achieve the target storage.