• 제목/요약/키워드: Probabilistic Prediction

검색결과 280건 처리시간 0.029초

도로교 콘크리트 바닥판의 합리적인 수명 평가 및 예측시스템 개발 (Development of Probabilistic Prediction System for Remaining Life of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Decks)

  • 오병환;최영철;이준혁
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2002년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.637-640
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    • 2002
  • The deterioration of RC deck slabs has been a serious problem and high portion of budget has been a spent for repair and strengthening of deck slab. The concrete deck slabs are subject to direct application of vehicle loading and accumulation of fatigue damage. Besides, various environmental causes. In this paper, an probabilistic study is carried out to predict exact load effects and structural capacity of deck slab during its service life, and estimate an appropriate remaining life of deck slab. To achieve this purpose the live load model is developed using by influence line including deterioration of deck slab, and deterioration model of bridge deck slab is developed. In addition, the fatigue life of reinforced concrete deck slabs considering corrosion of reinforcement are estimated based on experimental formula. This study will help rational decisions for the management and repair of reinforced concrete deck slabs.

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클러터 환경에서의 표적 추적을 위한 준최적의 검출 문턱값 ((Suboptimal Detection Thresholds for Tracking in Clutter))

  • 정영헌;신한섭
    • 전자공학회논문지SC
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    • 제39권2호
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    • pp.176-181
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    • 2002
  • 이 논문에서는 PDA(Probabilistic Data Association) 필터를 이용한 표적 추적에서 평균자승추정오차의 기대값을 최소화하는 표적 검출 문턱값의 최적제어 방법을 제시하고, 닫힌 형태의 준최적해를 구한다. 최적의 검출 문턱값을 구하기 위한 이전의 연구에서는 그래프를 이용한 부정확한 최적화 방법이나, 매우 시간이 많이 소요하는 수치해석적 최적화 알고리듬을 사용하였다. 하지만, 이 논문에서는 정보감소인자의 수치적 근사화식을 이용하여, 최적제어문제로 정식화하여 닫힌 형태의 준최적 검출 문턱값을 구하였다. 이 결과는 실시간 표적 추적에서 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.

Human Reliability Analysis in Wolsong 2/3/4 Nuclear Power Plants Probabilistic Safety Assessment

  • Kang, Dae-Il;Yang, Joon-Eon;Hwang, Mee-Jung;Jin, Young-Ho;Kim, Myeong-Ki
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1997년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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    • pp.611-616
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    • 1997
  • The Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) for Wolsong(WS) 2/3/4 nuclear power plant(NPPs) in design stage is performed using the methodologies being equivalent to PWR PSA. Accident sequence evaluation program(ASEP) human reliability analysis(HRA) procedure and technique for human error rate prediction(THERP) are used in HRA of WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the procedure and methodology of HRA in WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. Also, this paper describes the interim results of importance analysis for human actions modeled in WS 2/3/4 PSA and the findings and recommendations of administrative control of secondary control area from the view of human factors.

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Robustness of Data Mining Tools under Varting Levels of Noise:Case Study in Predicting a Chaotic Process

  • Kim, Steven H.;Lee, Churl-Min;Oh, Heung-Sik
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.109-141
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    • 1998
  • Many processes in the industrial realm exhibit sstochastic and nonlinear behavior. Consequently, an intelligent system must be able to nonlinear production processes as well as probabilistic phenomena. In order for a knowledge based system to control a manufacturing processes as well as probabilistic phenomena. In order for a knowledge based system to control manufacturing process, an important capability is that of prediction : forecasting the future trajectory of a process as well as the consequences of the control action. This paper examines the robustness of data mining tools under varying levels of noise while predicting nonlinear processes, includinb chaotic behavior. The evaluated models include the perceptron neural network using backpropagation (BPN), the recurrent neural network (RNN) and case based reasoning (CBR). The concepts are crystallized through a case study in predicting a chaotic process in the presence of various patterns of noise.

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APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND ITS VALIDATION FOR LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING DATA AT PENANG, MALAYSIA

  • LEE SARO
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2004년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2004
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    • pp.310-313
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    • 2004
  • The aim of this study is to evaluate the hazard of landslides at Penang, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence were: topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature and distance from drainage, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance from lineament, taken from the geologic database; land use from TM satellite images; and the vegetation index value from SPOT satellite images. Landslide hazardous area were analysed and mapped using the landslide-occurrence factors by logistic regression model. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data and compared with probabilistic model. The validation results showed that the logistic regression model is better prediction accuracy than probabilistic model.

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DETECTING LANDSLIDE LOCATION USING KOMSAT 1AND IT'S USING LANDSLIDE-SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING

  • Lee, Sa-Ro;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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    • pp.840-843
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    • 2006
  • The aim of this study was to detect landslide using satellite image and apply the landslide to probabilistic landslide-susceptibility mapping at Gangneung area, Korea using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations were identified by change detection technique of KOMSAT-1 (Korea Multipurpose Satellite) EOC (Electro Optical Camera) images and checked in field. For landslide-susceptibility mapping, maps of the topography, geology, soil, forest, lineaments, and land cover were constructed from the spatial data sets. Then, the sixteen factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database. Using the factors and detected landslide, the relationships were calculated using frequency ratio, one of the probabilistic model. Then, landslide-susceptibility map was drawn using the frequency ration and finally, the map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations. As the verification result, the prediction accuracy showed 86.76%. The landslide-susceptibility map can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.

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전동차 대차 프레임의 확률론적 구조 건전성 평가 (Probabilistic Estimation of the Structural Integrity of an Electric Car Bogie Frame)

  • 구병춘;서정원;김남포;김원경
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집A
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    • pp.161-165
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    • 2001
  • Bogie frame of the electric car is an important structural member for the support of vehicle loading. In general, more than 25 years' durability is necessary. Much study has been carried out for the prediction of the structural integrity of the bogie frame in experimental and theoretical domains. One of the useful methods is reliability-based approach. The objective of this paper is to estimate the structural integrity of the bogie frame of an electric car, which is under the running test. We used two approachs. In the first approach probabilistic distribution of S-N curve is used. In the second approach, limit state function is used.

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전동차 대차 프레임의 확률론적 피로강도 평가 (Probabilistic Estimation of the Fatigue Strength of an Electric Car Bogie Frame)

  • 서정원;구병춘;김남포;유원희;정흥채
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.261-266
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    • 2001
  • Bogie frame of the electric car is an important structural member for the support of vehicle leading. In general, more than 25 years' durability is necessary. A lot of study has been carried out for the prediction of the structural integrity of the bogie frame in experimental and theoretical domains. One of the useful methods is reliability-based approach. The objective of this paper is to estimate the structural integrity of the bogie frame of an electric car, which is under the running test. We used two approachs. In the first approach probabilistic distribution of S-N curve is used. In the second approach, limit state function is used.

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강원도 하천의 설계홍수량 산정에 관한 연구 (A Study on Evaluation of Desingn Floods Applicable to River in Kangwon Province)

  • 최한규;최석범;안종익;최용묵
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제19권
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    • pp.369-377
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    • 1999
  • The determination of the design flood based on probabilistic concepts is one of the important matters of the general field of hydrology. Until now, Most of any existing formulas to predict the flood flow were estimated by very different values with each other when we applied these formulas to the small basin, in extreme case, which were estimated over top be 400% of a difference because these have been developed by foreigners or derived from the big basin. The objective of this thesis is to examine closely the characteristics of frequency flood flow for reliable prediction of the flood flow through the probabilistic method in hydrology and to develop the ($Q_T=27.74T^{0.178}A^{0.594}$) applicable to the river of Kangwon province.

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DEVELOPMENT OF THE HANSEL-SPITTEL CONSTITUTIVE MODEL GAZED FROM A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE

  • LEE, KYUNGHOON;KIM, JI HOON;KANG, BEOM-SOO
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2017
  • The Hansel-Spittel constitutive model requires a total of nine parameters for flow stress prediction. Typically, the parameters are estimated by least squares methods for given tensile test measurements from a deterministic perspective. In this research we took a different approach, a probabilistic viewpoint, to see through the development of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model. This perspective change showed that deterministic least squares methods are closely related to statistical maximum likelihood methods via Gaussian noise assumption. More intriguingly, this perspective shift revealed that the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model may leave out deterministic trends in residuals despite nearly perfect agreement with measurements. With tensile test measurements of AA1070 aluminum alloy, we demonstrated this deficiency of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model, suggesting room for improvement.