• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Design

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Probabilistic Analysis of Design Live Loads on A Refrigeration Store (냉동 창고 상시 적재하중에 관한 확률론적 연구)

  • Kim, Dai-Ho;Jeong, Jae-Hun;Won, Young-SuI;Joo, Kyung-Jai
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2001
  • Live load data were collected with a systematic manner from a survey of a refrigeration stores. Using the collected floor live load survey data, the basic statistics, a histogram of the uniformly distributed loads, and the equivalent uniformly distributed loads are computed for various structural members. Based on the above results, the maximum values of a combined live loads during the design life have been estimated and compared with current design live loads. The ultimate goals of this study are to develop probabilistic live load models to analyze survey data of domestic refrigeration stores, and to propose design live loads for structural types.

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Domestic Seismic Design Maps Based on Risk-Targeted Maximum- Considered Earthquakes (위험도기반 최대예상지진에 근거한 국내 내진설계 지도)

  • Shin, Dong Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2015
  • This study evaluates collapse probabilities of structures which are designed according to a domestic seismic design code, KBC2009. In evaluating their collapse probabilities, to do this, probabilistic distribution models for seismic hazard and structural capacity are required. In this paper, eight major cities in Korea are selected and the demand probabilistic distribution of each city is obtained from the uniform seismic hazard. The probabilistic distribution for the structural capacity is assumed to follow a underlying design philosophy implicitly defined in ASCE 7-10. With the assumptions, the structural collapse probability in 50 years is evaluated based on the concept of a risk integral. This paper then defines an mean value of the collapse probabilities in 50 years of the selected major cities as the target risk. Risk-targeted spectral accelerations are finally suggested by modifying a current mapped spectral acceleration to meet the target risk.

ISSUES IN PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN THE US

  • Mcguire, Robin K.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.1235-1242
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    • 2009
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is routinely conducted in the US for nuclear plants, for the determination of appropriate seismic design levels. These analyses incorporate uncertainties in earthquake characteristics in stable continental regions (where direct observations of large earthquakes are rare), in estimates of rock motions, in site effects on strong shaking, and in the damage potential of seismic shaking for engineered facilities. Performance goals related to the inelastic deformation of individual components, and related to overall seismic core damage frequency, are used to determine design levels. PSHA has the ability to quantify and document the important uncertainties that affect seismic design levels, and future work can be guided toward reducing those uncertainties.

A Probabilistic Broadcasting Mechanism based on Cross Layer Model Deliberating Received Signal Strength Ratio in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

  • Kim, Jae-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2016
  • Mobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETs) consists of mobile nodes which communicate with each other without any centralized infrastructure. Message broadcasting by flooding for route discovery in MANET can result in high redundant retransmission, contention and collision of broadcasting packet, known as the broadcast storm problem collectively. The cross-layer design is adopted in this paper, which lets routing layer share the received signal strength information at MAC layer. Also this paper proposes a new probabilistic approach that dynamically adjusts the rebroadcasting probability of a node for routing request packets (RREQs) according to the received signal strength. The simulation results show that the proposed approach demonstrates better performance than blind flooding, fixed probabilistic broadcasting approaches.

Evaluation of Spatial Consolidation Settlement by Probabilistic Method (확률론적 방법을 이용한 공간적 압밀침하량 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Choi, Young-Min;Ko, Seong-Kwon;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2010.03a
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    • pp.475-479
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    • 2010
  • For a rational evaluation of the spatial distribution of consolidation settlement, it is necessary to adopt probabilistic method. In this study, mean and standard deviation of consolidation settlement of whole analysis region are evaluated by using the spatial distribution of consolidation layer which is estimated from kriging and statistics of soil properties. Using these results and probabilistic method, the area need to be raised the ground level for balancing the final design ground level are determined.

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Risk-informed design optimization method and application in a lead-based research reactor

  • Jiaqun Wang;Qianglong Wang;Jinrong Qiu;Jin Wang;Fang Wang;Yazhou Li
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.2047-2052
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    • 2023
  • Risk-informed approach has been widely applied in the safety design, regulation, and operation of nuclear reactors. It has been commonly accepted that risk-informed design optimization should be used in the innovative reactor designs to make nuclear system highly safe and reliable. In spite of the risk-informed approach has been used in some advanced nuclear reactors designs, such as Westinghouse IRIS, Gen-IV sodium fast reactors and lead-based fast reactors, the process of risk-informed design of nuclear reactors is hardly to carry out when passive system reliability should be integrated in the framework. A practical method for new passive safety reactors based on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and passive system reliability analyze linking is proposed in this paper. New three-dimension frequency-consequence curve based on risk concept with three variables is used in this method. The proposed method has been applied to the determination optimization of design options selection in a 10 MWth lead-based research reactor(LR) to obtain one optimized system design in conceptual design stage, using the integrated reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA, and the computation resources and time consumption in this process was demonstrated reasonable and acceptable.

Robust Design of a Dynamic System Using a Probabilistic Design Method (확률적 설계 방법을 이용한 동적 시스템의 강건 설계)

  • Ryu, Jang-Hee;Choi, In-Sang;Kim, Joo-Sung;Son, Young-Kap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1171-1178
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    • 2011
  • This paper shows the robust design results of an actuator, a kind of dynamic system. Variations in the components comprising the actuator cause uncertainties in the system's dynamic performance. Therefore, a probabilistic design method is applied to ensure robust actuator performance to component variation. A Simulink model for the actuator was built using transfer functions for the components. The dynamic responses of the actuator were evaluated using the Simulink model. Performance indexes were approximated as quadratic functions of the design parameters through the application of the response surface methodology (RSM) with the Simulink model. Then, a probabilistic design method was applied to the approximated performance indexes to obtain optimal design parameters that would provide robust actuator performance. The optimal design was compared to the present design in terms of the performance indexes and dynamic response characteristics over time.

Design Improvement for the Cooling System of the Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Using a PSA Method

  • Ko, Won-Il;Park, Jong-Won;Park, Seong-Won;Lee, Jae-Sol;Park, Hyun-Soo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.440-451
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    • 1996
  • With emphasis on safety, this study addresses for better design condition for the cooling system in a wet-type interim spent fuel storage facility, using a probabilistic safety assessment method. To incorporate the design renovation into the design phase, a simple approach is proposed. By taking the cooling system of a reference design, a fault tree analysis was performed to identify the weak point of the considered system, and then basic factors for design renovation were defined. A total of 21 design alternatives were selected through the combination of the basic factors. Finally, the optimum design alternative for the cooling system is derived by means of the cost and effect analysis based on the estimated cost, system reliability and assumed probabilistic safety criteria. With the assumption that the failure frequency of at-reactor spent fuel cooling system compiles with probabilistic safety criteria for the interim spent fuel cooling system, it was shown that the optimum alternative should have l00% cooling loop redundancy with one pump per cooling loop and a cleanup system installed separately from the main loop. Furthermore, it also should be classified into safety system. The result of this study can be used as a useful basis to identify factors of safety concern and to establish design requirements in the future. The method also can be applied for other nuclear facilities.

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Probabilistic Distribution and Variability of Geotechnical Properties with Randomness Characteristic (무작위성을 보이는 지반정수의 확률분포 및 변동성)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Lee, Ju-Hyoung;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.25 no.11
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    • pp.87-103
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    • 2009
  • To determine the reliable probabilistic distribution model of geotechnical properties, outlier and randomness test for analysis data, parameter estimation of probabilistic distribution model, and goodness-of-fit test for model parameter and probabilistic distribution model have to be performed in sequence. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution model's geotechnical properties of Songdo area in Incheon are estimated by the above proposed procedure. Also, the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the variability of geotechnical properties is determined for several geotechnical properties. Reliable probabilistic distribution model and COV of geotechnical properties can be used for probability-based design procedure and reasonable choice of design value in deterministic design method.

Reliability Evaluation of a Composite Pressure Vessel (복합재 압력 용기의 신뢰도 예측)

  • Hwang Tae-Kyung;Park Jae-Beom;Kim Hyoung-Geun;Doh Young-Dae;Moon Soon-Il
    • Composites Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, an integrated probabilistic strength analysis was conducted to predict the reliability of a composite pressure vessel under inner pressure loading condition. As a probabilistic strength analysis, the probabilistic progressive failure model consisting of progressive failure model and Monte Carlo simulation was incorporated with a commercial FEA code, ABAQUS Standard, to perform the probabilistic failure analysis of composite structure which has a complex shape and boundary conditions. As design random variables, the laminar strengths of each direction were considered. Finally, from probabilistic strength analysis, the scattering of burst pressure could be explained and the reliability of composite pressure vessel could be obtained for each component. In case of composite structures in mass production, the effects of uncertainties in material and manufacturing on the performance of composite structures would apparently become larger. So, the probabilistic strength analysis is essential for the structural design of composite structures in mass production.