• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Analysis

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Probabilistic evaluation of chloride ingress process in concrete structures considering environmental characteristics

  • Taisen, Zhao;Yi, Zhang;Kefei, Li;Junjie, Wang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.84 no.6
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    • pp.831-849
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    • 2022
  • One of the most prevalent causes of reinforced concrete (RC) structural deterioration is chloride-induced corrosion. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive insight into the environmental effect of RC's chloride ingress process. The first step is to investigate how relative humidity, temperature, and wind influence chloride ingress into concrete. The probability of initiation time of chloride-induced corrosion is predicted using a probabilistic model that considers these aspects. Parametric analysis is conducted on several factors impacting the corrosion process, including the depth of concrete cover, surface chloride concentration, relative humidity, and temperature to expose environmental features. According to the findings, environmental factors such as surface chloride concentration, relative humidity and temperature substantially impact on the time to corrosion initiation. The long- and short-distance impacts are also examined. The meteorological data from the National Meteorological Center of China are collected and used to analyze the environmental characteristics of the chloride ingress issue for structures along China's coastline. Finally, various recommendations are made for improving durability design against chloride attacks.

Probabilistic analysis of structural pounding considering soil-structure interaction

  • Naeej, Mojtaba;Amiri, Javad Vaseghi
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.289-304
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    • 2022
  • During strong ground motions, adjacent structures with insufficient separation distances collide with each other causing considerable architectural and structural damage or collapse of the whole structure. Generally, existing design procedures for determining the separation distance between adjacent buildings subjected to structural pounding are based on approximations of the buildings' peak relative displacement. These procedures are based on unknown safety levels. This paper attempts to evaluate the influence of foundation flexibility on the structural seismic response by considering the variability in the system and uncertainties in the ground motion characteristics through comprehensive numerical simulations. Actually, the aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of foundation flexibility on probabilistic evaluation of structural pounding. A Hertz-damp pounding force model has been considered in order to effectively capture impact forces during collisions. In total, 5.25 million time-history analyses were performed over the adopted models using an ensemble of 25 ground motions as seismic input within OpenSees software. The results of the study indicate that the soil-structure interaction significantly influences the pounding-involved responses of adjacent structures during earthquakes and generally increases the pounding probability.

Probabilistic seismic evaluation of buckling restrained braced frames using DCFD and PSDA methods

  • Asgarian, Behrouz;Golsefidi, Edris Salehi;Shokrgozar, Hamed Rahman
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.105-123
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, using the probabilistic methods, the seismic demand of buckling restrained braced frames subjected to earthquake was evaluated. In this regards, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14-storybuildings with different buckling restrained brace configuration (including diagonal, split X, chevron V and Inverted V bracings) were designed. Because of the inherent uncertainties in the earthquake records, incremental dynamical analysis was used to evaluate seismic performance of the structures. Using the results of incremental dynamical analysis, the "capacity of a structure in terms of first mode spectral acceleration", "fragility curve" and "mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" was determined. "Mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" has been estimated for immediate occupancy (IO) and collapse prevention (CP) limit states using both Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) and solution "based on displacement" in the Demand and Capacity Factor Design (DCFD) form. Based on analysis results, the inverted chevron (${\Lambda}$) buckling restrained braced frame has the largest capacity among the considered buckling restrained braces. Moreover, it has the best performance among the considered buckling restrained braces. Also, from fragility curves, it was observed that the fragility probability has increased with the height.

A dynamic reliability approach to seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams

  • Hu, Hongqiang;Huang, Yu
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2019
  • Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

Probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes with cracks

  • Zhu, J.Q.;Yang, X.L.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2018
  • To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

A Penalized Principal Components using Probabilistic PCA

  • Park, Chong-Sun;Wang, Morgan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.151-156
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    • 2003
  • Variable selection algorithm for principal component analysis using penalized likelihood method is proposed. We will adopt a probabilistic principal component idea to utilize likelihood function for the problem and use HARD penalty function to force coefficients of any irrelevant variables for each component to zero. Consistency and sparsity of coefficient estimates will be provided with results of small simulated and illustrative real examples.

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Probabilistic Analysis of System Failure (시스템 오류에 대한 확률적 분석)

  • Seong, Soon-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.648-654
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    • 2010
  • Request operations and release operations occur repeatedly in resource allocation systems. The process requesting a resource acquires one by any priority-based mechanism, and returns the resource after some periods. In this system, resource failures lead to delay of resource allocation, or to termination of process holding the failed resource. To analyze this process effectively, this paper designs a probabilistic ACSR, a process algebra that extends ACSR with the probabilistic choice operation. The ability to express/analyze both request-release rates and failure-recovery rates is illustrated using probabilistic ACSR.

(Theoretical Analysis and Performance Prediction for PSN Filter Tracking) (PSN 픽터의 해석 및 추적성능 예측)

  • Jeong, Yeong-Heon;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Sun-Mok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.166-175
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    • 2002
  • In this paper. we predict tracking performance of the probabilistic strongest neighbor filter (PSNF). The PSNF is known to be consistent and superior to the probabilistic data association filter (PDAF) in both performance and computation. The PSNF takes into account the probability that the measurement with the strongest intensity in the neighborhood of the predicted target measurement location is not target-originated. The tracking performance of the PSNF is quantified in terms of its estimation error covariance matrix. The estimation error covariance matrix is approximately evaluated by using the hybrid conditional average approach (HYCA). We performed numerical experiments to show the validity of our performance prediction.

Probabilistic Generation Modeling in Electricity Markets Considering Generator Maintenance Outage (전력시장의 발전기 보수계획을 고려한 확률적 발전 모델링)

  • Kim Jin-Ho;Park Jong-Bae
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.418-428
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a new probabilistic generation modeling method which can address the characteristics of changed electricity industry is proposed. The major contribution of this paper can be captured in the development of a probabilistic generation modeling considering generator maintenance outage and in the classification of market demand into multiple demand clusters for the applications to electricity markets. Conventional forced outage rates of generators are conceptually combined with maintenance outage of generators and, consequently, effective outage rates of generators are newly defined in order to properly address the probabilistic characteristic of generation in electricity markets. Then, original market demands are classified into several distinct demand clusters, which are defined by the effective outage rates of generators and by the inherent characteristic of the original demand. We have found that generators have different effective outage rates values at each classified demand cluster, depending on the market situation. From this, therefore, it can be seen that electricity markets can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns and that the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be more efficiently analyzed in electricity markets perspectives, for this classification can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power systems such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, price forecasts, and so on.

Probabilistic Filtering Method for Efficient Sensor Network Security (효율적인 센서 네트워크 보안을 위한 확률적인 필터링 기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Shin, Seung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.382-389
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    • 2012
  • The fabricated report attack will not only cause false alarms that waste real-world response efforts such as sending response teams to the event location, but also drains the finite amount of energy in a wireless sensor network. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic filtering method for sensor network security (PFSS) to deal with filtering for the fabricated report. On the basis of filtering scheme, PFSS combines cluster-based organization and probabilistic verification node assignment using distance of from cluster head to base station for energy efficiency and hot spot problem. Through both analysis and simulation, we demonstrate that PFSS could achieve efficient protection against fabricated report attack while maintaining a sufficiently high filtering power.