• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.207-217
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• 2017

Because of the inevitable uncertainties such as structural parameters, external excitations and measurement noises, the effects of uncertainties should be taken into consideration in structural damage detection. In this paper, two probabilistic structural damage detection approaches are proposed to account for the underlying uncertainties in structural parameters and external excitation. The first approach adopts the statistical moment-based structural damage detection (SMBDD) algorithm together with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. The approach takes the advantage of the strength SMBDD, so it is robust to measurement noise. However, it requests the number of measured responses is not less than that of unknown structural parameters. To reduce the number of measurements requested by the SMBDD algorithm, another probabilistic structural damage detection approach is proposed. It is based on the integration of structural damage detection using temporal moments in each time segment of measured response time history with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. In both approaches, probability distribution of damage vector is estimated from those of uncertain parameters based on stochastic finite element model updating and probabilistic propagation. By comparing the two probability distribution characteristics for the undamaged and damaged models, probability of damage existence and damage extent at structural element level can be detected. Some numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performances of the two proposed approaches, respectively.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2014

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.9 no.spc
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• pp.123-147
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• 2003

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the probabilistic versus deterministic view of accident and safety using the indigenous and cultural perspectives. Death and injury due to accidents is the leading cause of preventable death in most countries, including Korea. The first part of this paper delineates the limitation of the linear, deterministic model that has been adopted in social and applied sciences. The transactional model, advocated by indigenous psychology, is provided to understand the probabilistic nature of accident and safety at home, in the workplace and in society. Second, factors related to accidents and safety are reviewed. Third, application of the probabilistic model for preventing accidents and promoting safety in Korea is outlined.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.533-539
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• 2005

According to NERC definition, Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is a measure of the transfer capability remaining in the physical transmission network for the future commercial activity. To calculate Available Transfer Capability, accurate and defensible Total Transfer Capability, Capacity Benefit Margin and Transmission Reliability Margin should be calculated in advance. This paper proposes a method to quantify time varying Available Transfer Capability based on probabilistic approach. The uncertainties of power system and market are considered as complex random variables. Total Transfer Capability is determined by optimization technique such as SQP(Sequential Quadratic Programming). Transmission Reliability Margin with the desired probabilistic margin is calculated based on Probabilistic Load Flow analysis, and Capacity Benefit Margin is evaluated using LOLE of the system. Suggested Available Transfer Capability quantification method is verified using IEEE RTS with 72 bus. The proposed method shows efficiency and flexibility for the quantification of Available Transfer Capability.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.151-173
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• 2020

This paper aims to probabilistically evaluate performance of two types of I beam to box column (IBBC) connection. With the objective of considering the variability of seismic loading demand, statistical features of the inter-story drift ratio corresponding to the second, fifth and eleventh story of a 12-story steel special moment resisting frames are extracted through incremental dynamic analysis at global collapse state. Variability of geometrical variables and material strength are also taken into account. All of these random variables are exported as inputs to a probabilistic finite element model which simulates the connection. At the end, cumulative distribution functions of local seismic demand for each component of each connection are provided using histogram sampling. Through a parametric study on probabilistic local seismic demand, the influence of some geometrical random variables on the performance of IBBC connections is demonstrated. Furthermore, the probabilistic study revealed that IBBC connection with widened flange has a better performance than the un-widened flange. Also, a design procedure is proposed for WF connections to achieve a same connection performance in different stories.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.125-133
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• 2019

In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.763-771
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• 2008

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering geological problems. Therefore, the presence of uncertainties and their significance in analysis and design of slopes have been recognized. Since the uncertainties cannot be taken into account by the conventional deterministic approaches in slope stability analysis, the probabilistic analysis has been considered as the primary tool for representing uncertainties in mathematical models. However, some uncertainties are caused by incomplete information due to lack of information, and those uncertainties cannot be handled appropriately by the probabilistic approach. For those uncertainties, the theory of fuzzy sets is more appropriate. Therefore, in this study, fuzzy reliability analysis has been proposed in order to deal with the uncertainties which cannot be quantified in the probabilistic analysis due to the limited information. For the practical example, a slope is selected in this study and both the probabilistic analysis and the fuzzy reliability analysis have been carried out for planar failure. In the fuzzy reliability analysis, the dip angle and internal friction angle of discontinuity are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers since the random properties of the variables cannot be obtained completely under the conditions of limited information. In the study, the fuzzy reliability index and the probabilities of failure are evaluated from fuzzy arithmetic and compared to those from the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation and point estimate method. The analysis results show that the fuzzy reliability analysis is more appropriate for the condition that the uncertainties arise due to incomplete information.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.12
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• pp.13-25
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• 2009

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic slope stability analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil properties is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the limit equilibrium method of slices to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil parameters. Making no a priori assumptions about the critical failure surface like the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM), the approach saves the amount of solution time required to perform the analysis. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty caused by the spatial heterogeneity on the stability of slope. The results show that the proposed method can efficiently consider the various failure mechanisms caused by the spatial variability of soil property in the probabilistic slope stability assessment.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.111-123
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• 2008

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil properties is presented to study the response of spatially random soil. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two-dimensional non-Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-$Lo{\grave{e}}ve$ expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the settlement and bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to the geotechnical problem and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.3 no.spc2
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• pp.355-362
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• 2005

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.