• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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CONVERGENCE OF A GENERALIZED BELIEF PROPAGATION ALGORITHM FOR BIOLOGICAL NETWORKS

  • CHOO, SANG-MOK;KIM, YOUNG-HEE
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.40 no.3_4
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    • pp.515-530
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    • 2022
  • A factor graph and belief propagation can be used for finding stochastic values of link weights in biological networks. However it is not easy to follow the process of use and so we presented the process with a toy network of three nodes in our prior work. We extend this work more generally and present numerical example for a network of 100 nodes.

Prior Maximum Likelihood Detection Verifier Design in MIMO Receivers (MIMO 수신기에서 사전 Maximum Likelihood 검파 검증기 설계)

  • Jeon, Hyoung-Goo;Bae, Jin-Ho;Lee, Dong-Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.11A
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    • pp.1063-1071
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    • 2008
  • This paper proposes a prior maximum likelihood (ML) detection verifier which has an ability to verify if the zero forcing (ZF) detection results are identical to the ML detection results. Since more than 90% of ZF detection results are identical to ML detection results, the proposed verifier makes it possible to omit the computationally complex ML detection in 90% cases of MIMO signal detections. The proposed verifier is designed by using the diversity gain obtained from converting MIMO signal into single input multiple output (SIMO) signals. In the proposed method, single input multiple output (SIMO) signals for each transmit antenna are separated from MIMO signals after the MIMO signals are detected by ZF method. Computer simulations show that the true alarm probability of the proposed verifier is more than 80% and the false alarm probability is less than $10^{-4}$.

Uncertainty and Updating of Long-Term Prediction of Prestress in Prestressed Concrete Bridges (프리스트레스트 콘크리트 교량의 프리스트레스 장기 예측의 불확실성 및 업데이팅)

  • 양인환
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.251-259
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    • 2004
  • The prediction accuracy of prestress plays an important role in the quality of maintenance and the decision on rehabilitation of infrastructure such as prestressed concrete bridges. In this paper, the Bayesian statistical method that uses in-situ measurement data for reducing the uncertainties or updating long-term prediction of prestress is presented. For Bayesian analysis, prior probability distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage of concrete and likelihood function is derived and used with data acquired in site. Posterior probability distribution is then obtained by combining prior distribution and likelihood function. The numerical results of this study indicate that more accurate long-term prediction of prestress forces due to creep and shrink age is possible.

A Korean Homonym Disambiguation Model Based on Statistics Using Weights (가중치를 이용한 통계 기반 한국어 동형이의어 분별 모델)

  • 김준수;최호섭;옥철영
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.30 no.11
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    • pp.1112-1123
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    • 2003
  • WSD(word sense disambiguation) is one of the most difficult problems in Korean information processing. The Bayesian model that used semantic information, extracted from definition corpus(1 million POS-tagged eojeol, Korean dictionary definitions), resulted in accuracy of 72.08% (nouns 78.12%, verbs 62.45%). This paper proposes the statistical WSD model using NPH(New Prior Probability of Homonym sense) and distance weights. We select 46 homonyms(30 nouns, 16 verbs) occurred high frequency in definition corpus, and then we experiment the model on 47,977 contexts from ‘21C Sejong Corpus’(3.5 million POS-tagged eojeol). The WSD model using NPH improves on accuracy to average 1.70% and the one using NPH and distance weights improves to 2.01%.

Performance Assessment of GBAS Ephemeris Monitor for Wide Faults (Wide Fault에 대한 GBAS 궤도 오차 모니터 성능 분석)

  • Junesol Song;Carl Milner
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2024
  • Galileo is a European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) that has offered the Galileo Open Service since 2016. Consequently, the standardization of GNSS augmentation systems, such as Satellite Based Augmentation System (SBAS), Ground Based Augmentation System (GBAS), and Aircraft Based Augmentation System (ABAS) for Galileo signals, is ongoing. In 2023, the European Union Space Programme Agency (EUSPA) released prior probabilities of a satellite fault and a constellation fault for Galileo, which are 3×10-5 and 2×10-4 per hour, respectively. In particular, the prior probability of a Galileo constellation fault is significantly higher than that for the GPS constellation fault, which is defined as 1×10-8 per hour. This raised concerns about its potential impact on GBAS integrity monitoring. According to the Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service Performance Standard (SPS PS), a constellation fault is classified as a wide fault. A wide fault refers to a fault that affects more than two satellites due to a common cause. Such a fault can be caused by a failure in the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP). The EOP is used when transforming the inertial axis, on which the orbit determination is based, to Earth Centered Earth Fixed (ECEF) axis, accounting for the irregularities in the rotation of the Earth. Therefore, a faulty EOP can introduce errors when computing a satellite position with respect to the ECEF axis. In GNSS, the ephemeris parameters are estimated based on the positions of satellites and are transmitted to navigation satellites. Subsequently, these ephemeris parameters are broadcasted via the navigation message to users. Therefore, a faulty EOP results in erroneous broadcast ephemeris data. In this paper, we assess the conventional ephemeris fault detection monitor currently employed in GBAS for wide faults, as current GBAS considers only single failure cases. In addition to the existing requirements defined in the standards on the Probability of Missed Detection (PMD), we derive a new PMD requirement tailored for a wide fault. The compliance of the current ephemeris monitor to the derived requirement is evaluated through a simulation. Our findings confirm that the conventional monitor meets the requirement even for wide fault scenarios.

Field Measurements of Ground Movements Around Tunnel (현장계측에 의한 터널주변지반의 변위연구)

  • 홍성완;배규진
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 1985
  • Generally, ground settlements and lateral displacements are accompanied by underground excavation associated with open-cut or tunnling. These ground movements cause a harmful influence upon nearby super.structures and sub-structures. Occasionally, the ground movements may pose serious problems as the function of the nearby structures may be disrupted. Therefore, prior to the subway construction in an urban area, it is necessary to identify the causes of ground settlements and estimating the extent St the magnitude of ground movements since any potential damage to the nearby structures such as gas lines, water mains, high buildings and cultural assets must be assessed. The research was performed mainly on ground movements such as surface settlements, lateral displacements, subsurface settlements and crown settlements to predict the maximum settlement and settlement zone, and to identify the causes of ground settlements in NATM sections of Busan subway. As a result, it was found that lateral distribution of settlements could be approximated reasonably by a Gaussian normal probability curve and longitudinal distribution of settlements by a cumulative Gaussian probability curve, and that the early closure of temporary invert was very important to minimize ground settlements.

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Hybrid Iterative Detection Algorithm for MIMO Systems (다중 안테나 시스템을 위한 Hybrid Iterative 검출 기법)

  • Kim, Sang-Heon;Shin, Myeong-Cheol;Kim, Kyeong-Yeon;Lee, Chung-Yong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.44 no.4 s.316
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    • pp.117-122
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    • 2007
  • For multiple antenna systems, we consider the hybrid iterative detection of the maximum a posteriori probability(MAP) detection and the linear detection such as the minimum-mean-square-error(MMSE) filtering with soft cancelation. We devise methods to obtain both the lower complexity of the linear detection and the superior performance of the MAP detection. Using the a prior probability of the coded bit which is extrinsic of the outer decoder, we compute the threshold of grouping and determine the detection scheme symbol by symbol. Through the simulation results, it is shown that the proposed receiver obtains the superior performance to the MMSE detector and the lower complexity than the MAP detector.

Statistical Life Prediction of Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Inference (베이지안 추론법을 이용한 부식된 배관의 통계적 수명예측)

  • Noh, Yoojeong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.2401-2406
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    • 2015
  • Pipelines are used by large heavy industries to deliver various types of fluids. Since this is important to maintain the performance of large systems, it is necessary to accurately predict remaining life of the corroded pipeline. However, predicting the remaining life is difficult due to uncertainties in the associated variables, such as geometries, material properties, corrosion rate, etc. In this paper, a statistical method for predicting corrosion remaining life is proposed using Bayesian inference. To accomplish this, pipeline failure probability was calculated using prior information about pipeline failure pressure according to elapsed time, and the given experimental data based on Bayes' rule. The corrosion remaining life was calculated as the elapsed time with 10 % failure probability. Using 10 and 50 samples generated from random variables affecting the corrosion of the pipe, the pipeline failure probability was estimated, after which the estimated remaining useful life was compared with the assumed true remaining useful life.

Program for Estimating the Probability of Causation to Korean Radiation Workers with Cancer (국내 방사선작업종사자에게 발생한 암의 방사선 인과도를 평가하기 위한 인과확률 계산 프로그램)

  • Jeong, Mee-Seon;Jin, Young-Woo;Kim, Chong-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2004
  • The probability of causation(PC) is the measure to ascertain the likelihood that a particular cancer may be attributed to a particular prior exposure to radiation. Since the PC is involved in several uncertainties, it is desirable to use the confidence limit for the PC, not a point estimate for determining whether to award compensation. We developed the program for estimating the PC to Korean radiation workers with cancer, the so-called RHRI-PEPC, which is based on the most reasonable model for radiation cancer risk and recent Korean baseline data. RHRI-PEPC gives us the upper confidence limit for the PC after adjusting several uncertainties and therefore we can assess more reasonably the causality of radiation exposure for cancer occurred in Korean radiation workers.

Bayesian Interval Estimation of Tobit Regression Model (토빗회귀모형에서 베이지안 구간추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Chun;Choi, Byung Su
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.737-746
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    • 2013
  • The Bayesian method can be applied successfully to the estimation of the censored regression model introduced by Tobin (1958). The Bayes estimates show improvements over the maximum likelihood estimate; however, the performance of the Bayesian interval estimation is questionable. In Bayesian paradigm, the prior distribution usually reflects personal beliefs about the parameters. Such subjective priors will typically yield interval estimators with poor frequentist properties; however, an objective noninformative often yields a Bayesian procedure with good frequentist properties. We examine the performance of frequentist properties of noninformative priors for the Tobit regression model.