• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.83-91
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• 2021

For agricultural products, supply is irregular due to changes in meteorological conditions, and it has high price elasticity. For example, if the supply decreases by 10%, the price increases by 50%. Due to these fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products, the Korean government guarantees the safety of prices to producers through small merchants' auctions. However, when prices plummet due to overproduction, protection measures for producers are insufficient. Therefore, in this paper, we designed a business model that can be used in the electronic transaction system by predicting the price of agricultural products with an artificial intelligence algorithm. To this end, the trained model with the training pattern pairs and a predictive model was designed by applying ARIMA, SARIMA, RNN, and CNN. Finally, the agricultural product forecast price data was classified into short-term forecast and medium-term forecast and verified. As a result of verification, based on 2018 data, the actual price and predicted price showed an accuracy of 91.08%.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.3-14
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• 2010

Through time-series plots, we can see relatively stable trend of energy factor share and the decreasing trend of relative energy prices (to wages) in Korea. We can compromise these empirical facts with the following explanation: if elasticity of substitution between capital and energy is smaller than one(<1) in Korea, a change(decrease) in energy price can prevent income share of resources from rising in the process of economic growth. This is consistent with theoretical and empirical results that substitution between energy and capital is so difficult. From simple empirical analysis and limited information, we can carefully infer that, in the past in Korea, resource-specific innovation was performed widely. Finally, If we are to reduce the magnitude of "growth drag", we should decrease energy factor share. This can be accomplished by energy-augmenting technical progress in the case of elasticity of substitution less than 1 as in Korea.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.266-271
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• 2000

The electric power industries are moving from the conventional monopolistic or vertically integrated environments to deregulated and competitive environments, where each participant is concerned with profit maximization rather than system-wide costs minimization. Consequently, the conventional least-cost approaches for the generation resource schedule can not exactly handle real-world situations. This paper presents a game theory application for analyzing power transactions and market design in a deregulated energy marketplace, where the market participants determine the net profits through the optimal bidding strategies. The demand elasticity of the energy price is considered for the realistic modeling of the deregulated marketplace.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.39-46
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• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the intention of smoking cessation according to the level of cigarette price increase among adolescent smokers and to suggest a reasonable cigarette price to effectively reduce smoking prevalence. Methods: In 2007, subjects were selected from middle and high school students except twelfth graders using a complex sampling design which employs a two-stage cluster sampling method. In total, 1,001 current smokers were included in the study. To investigate the intention of smoking cessation according to the level of cigarette price increase, cumulative percentages of smoking cessation of every smoking-related subgroup were presented under the assumption that cigarette prices increased to 3,000, 4,000, 5,000, 6,000 or 10,000 won. Non-parametric statistical methods were used to compare the prices at which the subjects intended to quit smoking among the subgroups. Results: More than 50 percent of current smokers intended to quit smoking under the assumption that cigarette prices were doubled to 5,000 won. However, the effect of cigarette prices on smoking cessation was less sensitive when the prices exceeded 5,000 won. In addition, the median of cigarette prices at which the subjects intended to quit smoking was 5,000 won, excluding the subjects who smoked less than a cigarette a day. Conclusion: This study suggests that 5,000 won for one pack of cigarettes is a reasonable price to effectively encourage smoking cessation, considering the price elasticity. Therefore, this finding may be helpful in establishing a new cigarette price policy for anti-smoking.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.7-20
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• 2012

The objective of this paper is to construct pseudo-panel data set and estimate price and income elasticities of car travel demand, using 1995-2007 household income and expenditure survey data, in order to provide quantitative information for analyzing related policy effects in the transport sector. We categorized household survey data into 14 cohorts based on the birth year of the household head. As the result, a total of 133 pseudo-panel data sets was created for estimating price and income elasticities of car travel demand. Especially, price and income elasticities of car travel demand were separately estimated both short-term and long-term. We analyzed the panel model considering fixed effect within cohorts, using explanatory variables such as previous year's fuel consumption, real household income after tax, education level of the household head, the number of children under five, and the share of household type averaged by cohorts. As results, the short-term and long-term price elasticities of car travel demand were calculated as 0.2974-0.4280 and 0.4087-0.6275, respectively. Similarly, the short-term and long-term income elasticities were calculated as 0.3364-0.6281 and 0.7098, respectively.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.587_588
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• 2009

본 논문에서 전력 시스템 운영자의 trigger poin와 수요 반응 프로그램 참여자의 가격 탄력성에 따라 수요 반응 이후의 전기 가격을 예측하여 경제성 수요 반응 프로그램에 어떤 영향을 끼치는 지 살펴보고 운영자가 수요 반응 프로그램 반응 정보를 쉽게 파악할 수 있게 PR을 제안한다.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.19-34
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• 2002

This study is to analyze the demand for organic farming products . The demand for organic farming products is increasing rapidly but the study to analyze the demand system by the methods of econometrics is not tried at all because there is no any formal statistical data about the demand. Therefore, this study tries to estimate the raw statistical data to expect the demand trends of organic farming products in the future. To analyze the demand functions of organic farming products such as rice, bean, apple, grape, beef, and park, this study uses AIDS model by using several assumptions and estimates the price and income elasticities of the demands. The results demonstrate that the demands of organic farming products will be increased in the future and the prices of organic farming products will be the key factor in the demand, In 2004, the quantity demanded of the organic grape will account for 3% of total grape market. As a result, consumer's concerns about organic farming products will be high and the demand for organic farming products will be increased. Thus, the reasonable price system has a significant influence on the market of organic farming products.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.66 no.8
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• pp.1181-1186
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• 2017

The purpose of Demand Response is to reduce the cost of excessive resources and equipment by spontaneous load reductions at peak loads. Having enough power consumers participating in these schemes is key to achieving the goal. Demand Response Aggregator (DRA) is responsible for recruiting demand resources and managing them to participate in reducing the load. DRAs change the price elasticity of demand functions by providing incentives to demand response, thereby affecting price formation in the electricity market. In this paper, this process is modeled to analyze the relationship between DRA's strategic bidding and market outcomes and load reductions. It analyzes the results by applying to competition between DRAs, competition between DR and Gencos, and coexistence of DR load and non-DR load. It is noteworthy that we have found a phenomenon called the Balloon Effect.