Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimating Elasticities of Car Travel Demand Using Pseudo-Panel Data

가상패널자료를 이용한 승용차 통행수요 탄력성 추정 연구

  • Han, Sang-Yong (Division of International Studies, Dongseo University) ;
  • Lee, Jai-Min (School of Economics and Trade, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Seung (Asia Pacific School of Logistics, Inha University)
  • Received : 2011.05.23
  • Accepted : 2011.11.08
  • Published : 2012.04.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to construct pseudo-panel data set and estimate price and income elasticities of car travel demand, using 1995-2007 household income and expenditure survey data, in order to provide quantitative information for analyzing related policy effects in the transport sector. We categorized household survey data into 14 cohorts based on the birth year of the household head. As the result, a total of 133 pseudo-panel data sets was created for estimating price and income elasticities of car travel demand. Especially, price and income elasticities of car travel demand were separately estimated both short-term and long-term. We analyzed the panel model considering fixed effect within cohorts, using explanatory variables such as previous year's fuel consumption, real household income after tax, education level of the household head, the number of children under five, and the share of household type averaged by cohorts. As results, the short-term and long-term price elasticities of car travel demand were calculated as 0.2974-0.4280 and 0.4087-0.6275, respectively. Similarly, the short-term and long-term income elasticities were calculated as 0.3364-0.6281 and 0.7098, respectively.

가구의 지속적인 승용차 보유 증가로 인한 승용차 이용 증대는 교통부문에서의 온실가스 감축 목표 달성에 큰 장애요인으로 작용하고 있다. 특히 가구의 승용차 통행수요는 가구원수, 가구소득, 거주지역 등 다양한 가구특성에 의해 결정되기 때문에 이러한 가구특성 변수들이 승용차 통행수요에 미치는 영향, 즉, 가구의 승용차 통행수요에 대한 탄력성 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 1995부터 2007년까지의 가계동향조사 자료를 활용하여 가상패널자료를 구축하고, 이 자료를 토대로 패널모형을 추정하여 가구의 승용차 통행수요에 대한 장 단기 가격 및 소득탄력성을 추정하였다. 실증분석결과, 승용차 통행수요의 단기 가격탄력성은 0.2974~0.4280, 장기 가격탄력성은 0.4087~0.6275로 분석되었고, 단기 소득탄력성은 0.3364~0.6281, 장기 소득탄력성은 0.7098로 분석되었다. 본 연구에서 도출된 승용차 통행수요에 대한 장 단기 가격 및 소득탄력성 추정결과는 향후 교통수요관리 정책의 효과를 분석하는 데 정량적 기초자료로서 활용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

Keywords

References

  1. Baek, S. G. and Jeong, S. Y.(2007), The elasticities of expressway trip patterns with fuel price, The 57th Conference of Korean Society of Transportation, Korean Society of Transportation, pp.77-86.
  2. Beach, C. M. and Finnie, R.(2004), A longitudinal analysis of earnings change in Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.37, No.1, pp.219-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2004.012_1.x
  3. Bourguignon, F., Goh, C. and Kim, D. (2004), Estimating individual vulnerability to poverty with pseudo-panel data, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2275.
  4. Dargay, J. and Vythoulkas, P.(1999), Estimation of a dynamic car ownership model : a pseudo-panel approach, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.33, No.3, pp.287-302.
  5. Davidson, R. and Mackinnon, J.(2003), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
  6. Deaton, A.(1985), Panel data from time series of cross sections, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.30, pp.109-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90134-4
  7. Garner, B. R., Godley, S. H. and Funk, R. R.(2002), Evaluating admission alternatives in an outpatient substance abuse treatment program for adolescents, Evaluation & Program Planning, Vol.25, No.3, pp.287-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0149-7189(02)00022-8
  8. Goodwin, P., J. Dargay and M. Hanly (2004), Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income : a review, Transport Reviews, Vol.24, No.3, pp.275-292. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144164042000181725
  9. Graham, D. J. and S. Glaister(2002), The demand for automobile fuel : a survey of elasticities, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.36, No.1, pp.1-26.
  10. Griffin, J. M.(1979), Energy Conservation in trhe OECD: 1980 to 2000, Ballinger Publishing Company.
  11. Han, S. Y. and Lee, J. H.(2010), Analysis on Expenditure Structures and Impact Factors of Household Transportation Cost, Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Vol.28, No.2, Korean Society of Transportation, pp.33-43.
  12. Hanly, M., J. Dargay and P. Goodwin (2002), Review of Income and Price Elasticity in the Demand for Road Traffic, Economic and Social Research Council.
  13. Hausman, J.(1978), Specification test in econometrics, Econometrica, Vol.46, pp.1251-1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
  14. Huang, B.(2005), Car Demand Forecasting Using Dynamic Pseudo Panel Model, MVA and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London.
  15. Huang, B.(2007), The Use of Pseudo Panel Data for Forecasting Car Ownership, MPRA and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London.
  16. Korea Energy Statistics Information System (2011), http://www.kesis.net, Korea Energy Economics Institute.
  17. Korea Petroleum Information Network (2011), http://www.petronet.co.kr, Korea National Oil Corporation.
  18. Lee, S. G. and Kim, T. H.(2002), Evaluation of Social Welfare Effects by Gasoline Taxation Policy, Korea Energy Economics Institute, pp.1-135.
  19. Lee, S. T. and Lee, M. H.(2001), Estimation of gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea : a hedonic approach, Environmental and Resource Economics Review, Vol.10, No.1, pp.45-64.
  20. Lee, S. W. and Park, J. H.(1999), Estimation of Urban Transport Demand Elasticity with Respect to Price, Income and Service Level, Korea Transport Institute, pp.1-206.
  21. Oum, T. H., W. G. Waters II and J. S. Yong(1992), Concepts of price elasticities of transport demand and recent empirical estimates, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.26, No.2, pp.139-154.
  22. Pindyck, R. S.(1979), The Structure of World Energy Demand, The MIT Press.
  23. Russell, J. E. and J. W. Fraas(2005), An application of panel regression to pseudo panel data, Panel Regression, Vol.31, No.1, pp.1-15.
  24. Verbeek, M. and T. Nijman(1992), Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?, Empirical Economics, Vol.17, pp.9-23. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01192471
  25. Weir, G.(2003), Self-employment in the UK labour market, Labour Market Trends, Vol.111, No.9, pp.441-452.
  26. Wooldridge, J. M.(2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press.

Cited by

  1. Long- and short-run asymmetric responses of motor-vehicle travel to fuel price variations: New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach vol.50, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.05.010