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A New Algorithm for Automated Modeling of Seasonal Time Series Using Box-Jenkins Techniques

  • Song, Qiang;Esogbue, Augustine O.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 2008
  • As an extension of a previous work by the authors (Song and Esogbue, 2006), a new algorithm for automated modeling of nonstationary seasonal time series is presented in this paper. Issues relative to the methodology for building automatically seasonal time series models and periodic time series models are addressed. This is achieved by inspecting the trend, estimating the seasonality, determining the orders of the model, and estimating the parameters. As in our previous work, the major instruments used in the model identification process are correlograms of the modeling errors while the least square method is used for parameter estimation. We provide numerical illustrations of the performance of the new algorithms with respect to building both seasonal time series and periodic time series models. Additionally, we consider forecasting and exercise the models on some sample time series problems found in the literature as well as real life problems drawn from the retail industry. In each instance, the models are built automatically avoiding the necessity of any human intervention.

A Meta-Analytic Review of the Effectiveness of the Science Writing Heuristic Approach on Academic Achievement in Turkey

  • Bae, Yejun;Sahin, Ercin
    • Research in Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.175-199
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    • 2021
  • The Science Writing Heuristic (SWH) approach is described as an immersive argument-based science inquiry focusing particularly on learning through epistemic practices. In the literature, several previous studies indicate how academic achievement is positively influenced by the SWH. In addition to these previous studies, several meta-syntheses of qualitative data have been conducted on this particular topic. With these literatures in mind, a quantitative meta-analysis was conducted with ten studies (N = 724) to examine the effectiveness of the SWH on student achievement in Turkey. To present a thoroughly detailed report, this study also examined the following moderators: grade level, subject area, school location, intervention length, and report source. Overall, this study found that in Turkey, the SWH classrooms performed better in academic achievement tests than traditional lecture-based classrooms. Additionally, the SWH is more likely to be effective regardless of grade levels, subject areas, and school locations.

Risk Factors of Delayed Surgical Intervention after Conservatively Treated Acute Traumatic Subdural Hematoma

  • Kwon, Hyungjoo;Choi, Kyu-Sun;Yi, Hyeong-Joong;Chun, Hyoung-Joon;Lee, Young-Jun;Kim, Dong-won
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.60 no.6
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    • pp.723-729
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) is generally considered a condition that should be managed surgically. However, some patients initially receive conservative treatment, a subset of whom require surgical intervention later. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of delayed surgical intervention in ASDH patients who are initially managed conservatively. Methods : From January 2007 to December 2015, 842 patients diagnosed with ASDH were treated at our institution. Among them, 158 patients with convexity ASDH were initially treated conservatively. Patients were divided into a delayed surgery group and a conservative group. Demographic characteristics, past medication and medical histories, and radiological and laboratory data were collected by retrospective chart review. Independent risk factors were identified with univariate and multivariate analyses. Results : Twenty-eight patients (17.7%) underwent delayed surgical intervention. Their mean age was 69.0 years, and 82.1% were male. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and heart disease prevalence and use of anti-platelet agents did not significantly differ from the conservative group. However, age (p=0.024), previous cerebral infarction history (p=0.026), increased maximal hematoma thickness (p<0.001), midline shifting (p=0.001) and accompanying subarachnoid hemorrhage (p=0.022) on initial brain computed tomography (CT) scan, low hemoglobin level (p<0.001), high leukocyte count (p=0.004), and low glucose level (p=0.002) were significantly associated with delayed surgical intervention. In multivariate analysis, increased maximal hematoma thickness (odds ratio [OR]=1.279, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.075-1.521; p=0.006), low hemoglobin level (OR=0.673, 95% CI 0.467-0.970; p=0.034), and high leukocyte count (OR=1.142, 95% CI 1.024-1.272; p=0.017) were independent risk factors for delayed surgical intervention. Conclusion : Due to the high likelihood of delayed surgical intervention among minimal ASDH patients with a thicker hematoma on initial brain CT, lower hemoglobin level, and higher leukocyte count, these patients should receive more careful observation.

Single-tube nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for simultaneous detection of genotyping of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus without DNA carryover contamination (DNA 교차오염 방지기능이 있는 single-tube nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction을 이용한 돼지생식기호흡기증후군바이러스 유전형 감별진단)

  • Jeong, Pil-Soo;Park, Su-Jin;Kim, Eun-Mi;Park, Ji-Young;Park, Yu-Ri;Kang, Dae-Young;Cha, Hyun-Ouk;Lee, Kyoung-Ki;Kim, Seong-Hee;Park, Choi-Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Service
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2016
  • In the study, we developed and evaluated a uracil N-glycosylase (UNG)-supplemented single-tube nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (UsnRT-PCR) assay that can carried out first-round RT-PCR and second-round nested PCR in a reaction tube without reaction tube opening and can simultaneously detect EU- and NA-PRRSV. The UsnRT-PCR confirmed to have a preventing ability of mis-amplification by contamination of pre-amplified PRRSV DNA from previous UsnRT-PCR. Primer specificities were evaluated with RNAs extracted from 8 viral strains and our results revealed that the primers had a high specificity for both genotypes of PRRSV. The sensitivity of the UsnRT-PCR was 0.1 $TCID_{50}$/0.1 mL for EU- or NA-PRRSV, respectively, which is comparable to that of previously reported real time RT-PCR (RRT-PCR). Clinical evaluation on 110 field samples (60 sera and 50 lung tissues) by the UsnRT-PCR and the RRT-PCR showed that detection rates of the UsnRT-PCR was 70% (77/110), and was relatively higher than that of the RRT-PCR (69.1%, 76/110). The percent positive or negative agreement of the UsnRT-PCR compared to RRT-PCR was 96.1% (73/76) or 90.9% (30/33), showing that the test results of both assays may be different for some clinical samples. Therefore, it is recommend that diagnostic laboratory workers use the two diagnostic assays for the correct diagnosis for the relevant samples in the swine disease diagnostic laboratories. In conclusion, the UsnRT-PCR assay can be applied for the rapid, and reliable diagnosis of PRRSV without concerns about preamplified DNA carryover contamination that can occurred in PCR process in the swine disease diagnostic laboratories.

A Pychoeducational Group Intervention for Women with Primary Breast Carcinoma (유방암 환자에 대한 심리교육 집단개입의 효과)

  • Hwang, Sook-Yeon;Lee, In-Soo;Park, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.51
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    • pp.93-118
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    • 2002
  • The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a psycho-educational group intervention in reducing psychologic distress and enhancing coping in Korean breast cancer patients. The patient selection criteria were age younger than 70 years, having any postoperative adjuvant therapy, and surgery undergone within the previous 12 months as of the start of the study and there were 70 patients eligible for this criteria. They were randomized into three groups; experimental group(24 patients), wait-list control group(24 patients) and wait-list group(36 patients). We conducted a 8-week, structured, psychosocial group intervention, which used psycho-educational strategies combining education and psychological support. Subjects were assessed for psychological distress and coping by administering the Beck Depression Inventory(BDI) and the Ways of Coping Checklist-Revised(WCCL-R) at the baseline and after 8 weeks. Forty eight patients were participated and thirty five patients completed the study. The experimental group had significantly lower scores than the controls for depression on the BDI(p=.012) after 8-week intervention. However, coping did not show a significant difference on WCCL-R after the intervention. Despite of some limitations, the results of this study suggest that a short term psychosocial group intervention produces a significant improvement in the quality of life of patients with primary breast carcinoma in Korea in terms of managing depression.

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Effect of Health Promotion Programs in Schoolchildren (초등학교 학생을 대상으로 한 건강증진 프로그램의 효과)

  • Yoo, Joong-Sun;Kang, Pock-Soo;Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kim, Seok-Beom;Choi, Kwang-Hae;Kim, Mee-Kyung
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.397-411
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    • 2000
  • The present study was conducted to analyze the degree of changes in knowledge and attitude toward health, arid health promoting activities after providing health education intervention for a year to elementary school children, to examine the factors effecting knowledge, attitude and health promoting practices for obesity and diet, and to analyze whether changes are present in health level according to changes in knowledge on health and health promoting activities. After conducting a pre-survey rio 354 subjects of 3rd and 4th grade students and their mothers in the city area of Kyungju, in April, 1999, 301. responses with the responding rate of 85% were obtained. Final analysis was done with 231 pairs of a student and his/her mother who could be followed up after a year among 301 pairs of the respondents, excluding those students who transferred, those who were excused from school early, those who did not take abdominal fat measurements, and those students and mothers respondents whose survey was incomplete. Based on the changes before and after the intervention, the scores on knowledge about obesity and diet showed a significant difference in normal weight group, and the scores on the attitude toward obesity and diet increased significantly in obesity group but decreased significantly in normal weight group(p<0.01). The scores of practicing health promoting activities were significantly increased in both groups, and although the waist-hip ratio (WHR) did not change in obesity group, the rate increased significantly in normal weight group(p<0.01). As for changes on the knowledge of obesity and diet before and after the intervention while dividing the scores into 3 levels based on the scores of the pre-survey and compared to changes in the scores one year after, in the case of the changes in the scores in the 1st third, the score on the knowledge about obesity and diet changed from 1.3 in the pre survey to 3.7 after the intervention, showing significant increase(p<0.01) The scores of practicing health promoting activities for obesity and diet were significantly increase in all three levels(p<0.01), and the degree of changes in the scores was 7.0 points in the 1st third, 4.4 points for the and third and 1.8 points for the 3rd third, showing a significant difference among the three levels(p<0.01). It was shown that the increase in BMI in those students whose mothers have the education level higher than university was significantly higher than the increase in BMI in those students whose mothers have the education level under high school, and those students whose mothers are in their 30's showed higher changes in practicing health promoting activities for obesity and diet. When the scores of mothers' knowledge and attitude toward obesity and diet were compared by dividing the scores into tertile, the score of students' knowledge changed significantly according to the scores of mothers' attitude toward obesity and diet. In multiple regression analysis on changes in the scores of knowledge about obesity and diet, the student variables of the degree of awareness on the seriousness of obesity, and the scores of previous knowledge on diet and obesity were selected the significant variables, and among the mother variables, the degree of guiding the child on diet and the education level were the significant variables. In multiple regression analysis to analyze the factors effecting changes in the attitude toward obesity and diet, the student variables of the BMI, scores of previous knowledge on obesity and diet, and scores on the previous attitude toward obesity and diet were shown to be significant. In multiple regression analysis on the factors effecting changes in health promoting activities for obesity and diet, the student variables of the BMI, scores on the previous attitude toward obesity and diet, and changes in the scores of obesity and diet were selected the significant variables.

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A Study on the Repeated Blood-Donation and Health Promotion Behavior, Self-efficacy, and Self-esteem of Blood-donors. (헌혈자의 헌혈 반복성과 건강증진행위, 자기 효능감, 자존감과의 관계)

  • Hong Kyong Hee;Park Ho Ran
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.333-341
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    • 2003
  • This study was designed to provide basic strategies of nursing intervention in order to keep and obtain healthy, responsible and regular donors by investigating and analyzing relationships of health promotion behavior. self-efficacy and self-esteem of blood-donors. The subjects collected for the research were four hundred and sixty-eight individuals who participated in platelet donation at a university hospital apheresis unit in Seoul. The data for this study were collected between May and June, 2002 using questionnaires. The results were as follows. 1. The proportion of subjects who have not had previous experience of whole blood-donation was $13.7\%$, while the proportion of subjects who have had two times previous experiences was $16.2\%$ and over five times was $30.6\%$. 2. Mean score of health promotion behavior was 2.7 (range 1-4), self-efficacy was 3.8 (range 1-5) and self-esteem was 3.3 (range 1-4), which showed higher than middle. 3. There was positive significant relationship between the number of blood-donation and health promotion behavior as well as the number of blood donation and self-efficacy. 4. Positive significant relationship existed between the number of whole blood-donation and the number of apheresis blood-donation. Therefore, to increase recurrence of blood-donation. it is necessary to establish more effective and organized nursing intervention strategies that can promote the health promotion behavior, self-efficacy and self-esteem of blood-donors.

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Contributing Factors for the Registration Rates within Emergency Department Based Post-suicidal Care Program (자살시도 후 생존 퇴원한 환자에서 지역정신건강센터 등록 요인 분석 - 응급실 기반 자살시도자 관리시스템 자료 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Ki;Chun, Byeong Jo;Moon, Jong Mi;Cho, Yong Soo;Bae, Kyung-Yeol;Kim, Hyun Jung;Kim, Mi Jin
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate the independent factors associated with the registration rate for the community-based post suicidal care program in the emergency department (ED). Methods: This prospective observational study was conducted between January and September 2015 at the academic ED in the tertiary urban hospital. The variables examined included gender, age, address, type of insurance, history of previous psychiatric disease, suicide methods, number of previous attempts, CES-D (The Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale), and disposition at ED. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted to identify factors affecting the registration rate for the community-based post suicidal care program. Results: Overall, 331 suicides were investigated, 61 (18.4%) of which were registered in the post-suicide care program. Factors such as a intervention by psychiatric physician (OR: 3.287, 95%; CI: 1.207-9.624) and levels of depression by CES-D score of 16-24 (OR: 3.635; CI: 1.055-12.526) were significantly correlated with registration for the program. Conclusion: The registration rate for the community-based post suicidal care program was influenced by frequent intervention by a psychiatric physician and levels of depression by CES-D score of 16-24.

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Is the Phone Call the Most Effective Method for Recall in Cervical Cancer Screening? - Results from a Randomised Control Trial

  • Rashid, Rima Marhayu Abdul;Mohamed, Majdah;Hamid, Zaleha Abdul;Dahlui, Maznah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.5901-5904
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    • 2013
  • Objective: To compare the effectiveness of different methods of recall for repeat Pap smear among women who had normal smears in the previous screening. Design: Prospective randomized controlled study. Setting: All community clinics in Klang under the Ministry of Health Malaysia. Participants: Women of Klang who attended cervical screening and had a normal Pap smear in the previous year, and were due for a repeat smear were recruited and randomly assigned to four different methods of recall for repeat smear. Intervention: The recall methods given to the women to remind them for a repeat smear were either by postal letter, registered letter, short message by phone (SMS) or phone call. Main Outcome Measures: Number and percentage of women who responded to the recall within 8 weeks after they had received the recall, irrespective whether they had Pap test conducted. Also the numbers of women in each recall method that came for repeat Pap smear. Results: The rates of recall messages reaching the women when using letter, registered letter, SMS and phone calls were 79%, 87%, 66% and 68%, respectively. However, the positive responses to recall by letter, registered letter, phone messages and telephone call were 23.9%, 23.0%, 32.9% and 50.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Furthermore, more women who received recall by phone call had been screened (p<0.05) compared to those who received recall by postal letter (OR=2.38, CI=1.56-3.62). Conclusion: Both the usual way of sending letters and registered letters had higher chances of reaching patients compared to using phone either for sending messages or calling. The response to the recall method and uptake of repeat smear, however, were highest via phone call, indicating the importance of direct communication.

Assessment of the Quality of Reporting on Case Reports in Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine from June 2018 to December 2021: Using CARE Guideline (2018~2021년 사상체질의학회지 증례 보고의 질 평가 : CARE지침을 바탕으로)

  • Kim, Ji Hwan;Jeong, Aram;Lee, Hye Lim
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2022
  • Objectives The purpose of this study is to reevaluate the quality of reporting on case reports published in Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine (SCM) from June 2018 to December 2021, compared with January 2015 to May 2018. Methods Case reports were identified by searching from archive on the website of society of Journal of SCM. We assessed the quality of reporting on them based on CAse REport (CARE) guideline. Results A total of 32 case reports was finally included for the assessment. Overall quality of reporting was improved compared to one of previous study. The median reported rate of 'sufficiently' reporting increased by 7.8% from 66.7% to 74.5%, while the one as evaluated 'not sufficiently' and 'not reported' decreased by 4.1% from 14.8% to 10.7%, and 3.5% from 21.4% to 17.9%, respectively. However, more than 50% of 32 case reports did not still report 5 items about intervention adherence and tolerability(96.9%), diagnostic challenges(93.8%), adverse events(87.5%), timeline(68.8%), and patient's perspective on interventions(65.6%). Compared to the results of previous study, continuous attention is required for adverse events and changes in intervention in which the unreported rate increased by 18.3% and 6.3%, respectively. In addition, prognostic characteristics, patient's informed consent, patient's occupation, and keyword of 'Case report' and 'Sasang (Constitutional) medicine' should be sufficiently reported in the future. Conclusions Despite the overall improvement in the quality of reporting, efforts to improve the quality of reporting should be continued by referring to well-reported cases reports previously published in Journal of SCM.