• Title/Summary/Keyword: Presidential Election

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Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

A Study on the Early Computer Utilization in Korean Broadcasting: Focusing on the History of Election Broadcasting(1985-1992) (한국 방송에서 초기 컴퓨터 활용에 관한 연구: 선거 개표방송 변천사를 중심으로(1985년-1992년))

  • Nah, So-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2022
  • Today, each broadcasting station makes the best use of CG (computer Graphics), which is the latest technology in election broadcasting, and competes to attract the eyes of viewers. This paper investigated the history of CG technology and design transitions in election ballot counting broadcasts from the perspective of CG designers. From the 1980s, when computer-based election ballot counting began, to the full-scale use of virtual studios, the image and technology produced by CG while watching the ballot-counting broadcast video of general elections, presidential elections, and local elections. We analyzed the utilization from various angles. In Korea, we started with the EDDS (Election Data Display System) developed in-house, created a database using a computer, and introduced manual animation CG every day from that time. After that, broadcasting stations focused on diverse and gorgeous CG image competition, and CG images were expanded from 2D to 3D while technology and design developed together. From 1985 to 1992, Korean broadcasting can be seen as a transitional period in which the image changes due to the emphasis on information power while utilizing digital technology.

Survey and Analysis of Major Newspapers and Broadcastings about Public Health Policy: through 17th Presidential Election in 2007 and 18th Election in 2008 (보건의료정책에 관한 주요 언론의 선거보도 조사 분석 -17대 대선과 18대 총선을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Jin-Ah;Yang, Min-Joo;Chung, Won-Gyun;Kim, Cheoul-Sin
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the actual attitude of the major newspapers and broadcastings about public health policy during last $17^{th}$ presidential election and $18^{th}$ election for a member of the National Assembly and apply it to the study of procedure of making decision of policy as a fundamental data. Two researchers surveyed and analyzed all articles from three broadcasting stations, KBS, MBC, and SBS, and from four newspaper companies, Donga, Jungang, Chosun, and Hangyoreh. Among the major articles, the articles related to policies are ranked in last (10.8%). And among the reported 284 articles related to the policies, the social section (75 articles, 26.4%) and the economic section (73 articles, 25.7%) took part of over 50% of all. However, the articles related to public health policy took part of only 9.9% (28 articles). Among the articles of public health policy, the articles related to the cost of the medical service were ranked in the first (39.3%). Therefore, to solve the problems of the major public health policy, it needs effort to develop the public health policy and use the media to realize the developed policies.

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A Study on the Political Campaign Strategy applying the effect of Media Engagement (미디어 인게이지먼트의 효과를 활용한 정치캠페인의 전략 연구)

  • Kim, Man-Ki;Kim, Su-Bean
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2014
  • This study is the first model to apply the concept of media engagement to a political campaign by which the voters' mind toward the supporting political candidates, are read. Thus it provides the theoretical and practical implications to the political campaign, and eventually contributes to the development of democracy. For these objectives, the total of 729 people who have the right to vote were telephone surveyed using the peoplemeter, CATI program in the 18th Presidential Election (12 areas including Seoul) of Dec. 19th 2012, and Re and By-election of April 24th 2013. Research question is to examine how the 5 attributes of the media engagement (interest, immersion, relevance, satisfaction and participation), play a role as the moderating variables in cross-correlation, socio-economic status and media properties. The result shows that of the five properties of media engagement, the relevant factor is the important parameter of mediating variable to the causal relationship. The media usage (TV, SNS, print media), socio-economic status (gender, age, income, marriage and area), involvement and the Presidential Election, and Re and By-election are also effective in the five attributes of media engagement. These results suggest that the a study model can measure the campaign effectiveness. This study will contribute significantly to the development of politics, election, media, advertising, and public relations area as well as to promote interdisciplinary research.

Analysis of Correlation between the Budget Allocation to the Busan-Gwangyang Port and the Political Variables (부산.광양항의 예산배분과 정치적 변수에 대한 상관관계 분석)

  • Lee, Dong-Hyon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.203-224
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the budget allocation of Busan-Gwangyang port and political variables such as general election, presidential election, local election and political regimes. To do this, this study did correlation analyses using budget data of all ports in Korea, Busan, and Gwangyang during 1985-2007. The main results of the correlation analyses are as follow: First, there was a positive correlation between budget of Busan and local election. Also, there was a positive correlation between budget of Gwangyang and presidential election. This results suggest that public choice model and political business cycle model seem to apply to the port development policy. Second, there was no correlation between the regionalism of the political regime and budget of Busan-Gwangyang ports. Third, it can be inferred that the national agenda of the hub strategy can be positively related to the implementation of port development budget. Further studies are needed to analyse the relationship between the political variables and establishment of port plan, decision making about port development and ground-breaking of port construction.

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Sensitivity analysis of missing mechanisms for the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey (19대 대선 여론조사에서 무응답 메카니즘의 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Seongyong;Kwak, Dongho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2019
  • Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

An Analysis of 2018 Local Elections: Structure and Issues (2018년 지방선거 결과 분석: 구조와 쟁점)

  • Yoon, Jongbin
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.39-66
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    • 2018
  • This paper analyzes the structures and issues of 2018 Korean local elections based on the author's observations on the electoral processes. Even if this paper does not follow a traditional statistical method, it provides the interpretative meanings of 2018 local elections by utilizing an expert's observations of campaign processes. This result of 2018 election can be summarized into two analytical frames. In terms of electoral competition structure, three key factors, such as presidential approval rating, party competition structure, ideological spectrum, tend to affect the winning of governing party. In the light of election issue, the inter-Korean summit, the Washington-Pyeongyang summit, Incheon deprecating remark were positive to the vote gains of governing party, but the negative campaign, the drucking scandal and the swing voters were found not to be significant. The local election in Korea tends to show dual meanings, a proxy war of national-level politics and a composition process of local government. This paper found that the 2018 election has dual meanings at the same time, in a sense that it is the punishment of the ex-governing party's wrongdoing and the power change of local government.

The Effects of Voters' Perception of Television News Coverage of Election Poll Results on Political Participation Intention (텔레비전 선거 여론조사 보도의 영향에 대한 수용자 인식이 정치적 행동의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Soo-Bum;Kim, Nam-Ie
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.62
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2013
  • The current study examined the effects of the voters' perception of television news coverage of election poll results on their political participation intention. 700 voters participated in a telephone interview three weeks before the 2012 Korean presidential election. A structural equation modeling with the nationally representative sample was performed. The findings indicate the respondents were more likely to evaluate television news coverage of election poll results negatively when the news coverage presented that the candidate they supported was behind in the race, and the negative evaluation was linked to a greater third-person perception. The third-person perception, in turn, had an indirect effect on political participation intention through negative emotional responses. The results imply that voters' political position influences their perception of the television news coverage of election poll results, and this perception can have indirect effects on political participation.

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Format Study of 2002 Televised Presidential Debates Sponsored by Presidential Debate Committee (대통령후보 TV합동토론 형식(Format) 비교 연구: 대통령선거방송토론위원회 주최 합동토론회를 중심으로)

  • Song, Jong-Gil
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.22
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    • pp.107-130
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    • 2003
  • This study evaluated the debate formats adopted in the 2002 Televised Presidential Debates. Presidential Debate Committee have sponsored Televised Presidential Debates during the official campaign period. However, it is not easy task for the Committee to coordinate each party's different interests, such as voters, candidates, and broadcasters. Presidential candidates tries to use the debates as one of their campaign strategies. Broadcasters argued limitations in programming and production process. Regardless of the obstacles, voters expect that the committee makes ideal debate formats. The committee adopted two new forms in the 2002 Debates. The committee allowed direct exchange between candidates as well as advance question preparation by candidate. The committee intends that candidates focus on discussing policy issues. Some studies found that the debate format to allow direct exchange between candidates makes candidates focus on image issues rather than policy issues. The findings of this study are similar to the previous studies'. The new debate formats adopted in 2002 televised presidential debates did not guarantee policy issue oriented discussion. The committee or scholars should evaluate the debate formats used in the presidential debates in order to establish ideal debate formats that gives important information for votes to determine their choice. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the debate formats of former presidential campaign for developing right debate formats.

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Witty or wicked? The predictors and impact of agreement with user-generated political satires

  • Chen, Chi-Ying;Chang, Shao-Liang
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2016
  • User-generated content (UGC) satirizing the presidential candidates was widespread during the 2016 election in Taiwan. Using an experimental design, this study explored the predictors of viewer agreement to satirical UGC, and its influence on viewer attitudes towards candidates after watching the satirical videos from YouTube. Results showed that participants' agreement with the satirical UGC was predicted by their political cynicism and political information efficacy, but not by candidate favorability. Watching the UGC satirizing the presidential candidates effected the favorability toward the male candidates but not the female candidate. In addition, the evidence suggested that the frequency of exposure to satirical UGC is related to political information efficacy, but not with political cynicism or candidate favorability.