• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive value

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Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

Changes in the Titer of Tooth Root Antibodies Accompanying Root Resorption Associated with Orthodontic Tooth Movement (치아이동시 치근 흡수에 따른 치근항체의 역가 변화)

  • Park, Soo-Byung;Son, Woo-Sung
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.303-317
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    • 1994
  • This study was designed to measure the changes in the titer of tooth root antibodies accompanying root resorption associated with orthodontic tooth movement in dogs to explore a role of the specific immune response in root resorption during orthodontic tooth movement. Five adult mongrel dogs, 2 years of age, were used in the study. Six lower incisors were extracted as sources of homologous antigen in the dogs. Tooth root antigen preparations were made from a 6M Guanidine-HCl-10% EDTA(pH5.0) extract of these root dentins. Root resorption was elicited by intrusion of six maxillary incisors with 200-250gm intrusive force. In 9th week, resorbing six maxillary anterior teeth were extracted. Serum samples were taken from each dog prior to intrusion and weekly for 11 consecutive weeks. Serum autoantibody titers were determined with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As controls for antibody specificity, sera which were previously incubated with tooth root antigen as well as sera to an unrelated bacterial antigen (Porphyromonas gingivalis 33277) for 3 hours at 25 were measured in all runs. Root resorption was monitored monthly using occlusal radiographs. And then root resorption patterns were observed with a zoom stereo microscope (Model SZH-121, Olympus optical Co. Ltd.). Incisors did not show clear radiographic evidence of significant and progressive root resorption, but periodontal ligament space had widened. But root resorption was observed on the apical regions of the maxillary incisors with a zoom stereo microscope. Teeth showed the shallow depression generally accompanying deep resorption. These demonstrate a slight tendency for an immediate decrease followed by rebound to levels above the pre-treatment baseline. A peak titer of autoantibody to dentin antigen occurred on day 28, then steadily decreased during the 9th week period as the roots resorbed and then rapidly spiked in animals when the resorbing teeth were extracted. When sera is incubated with tooth root antigen, serum activity in the ELISA was almost absent. This is because serum activity in the ELISA could be removed by absorption of the serum with dog dentin antigen. Serum ELISA activity to the unrelated bacterial antigen remained essentially unchanged in all animals throughout the experimental period. When the time course of changes in autoantibody to homologous tooth root antigen prepatration and unrelated bacterial antigen was compared, no significant differences were found(${\alpha}=0.05$). In general, the overall pattern of changes in autoantibody was similar to the two antigens. These findings suggest the possibility that these immunologic changes precede a significant development of root resorption lesions rather than merely reflecting their presence. Therefore, this suggests that the changes of antibody levels may have some predictive value for root resorption.

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Comparison of $^{67}Ga$ Planar Imaging and SPECT for the Evaluation of Activity in Undetermined Minimal Pulmonary Tuberculosis (흉부 X-선상 활동성 미정으로 판독된 경증 폐결핵 환자에서 활동성 판정에 대한 $^{67}Ga$ 평면영상과 SPECT의 비교분석)

  • An, Min;Chang, Won-Kyu;Kim, Kyoung-Gon;Kim, Sung-Min;Kim, Yun-Kwon;Kim, So-Yeon;Kim, Young-Jung;Park, Byung-Yik;Cho, Min-Koo;Lee, Gwon-Jun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.870-878
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    • 2000
  • Background : We have studied the $^{67}Ga$ SPECT to determine the activity of pulmonary tuberculosis, especially in patients with minimal extent of the disease on chest radiographs. Because active minimal pulmonary tuberculosis is sometimes difficult to diagnose by means of initial chest X-ray, sputum examination and $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging, we compared $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging with SPECT to evaluate minimal pulmonary tuberculosis activity. Methods : $^{67}Ga$ planar imagings and SPECTs of 69 patients suspected of minimal pulmonary tuberculosis by the initial chest X-ray were performed and compared to each other. Active pulmonary tuberculosis was defined by a positive AFB smear and/or culture in the sputum and changes shown on the serial chest X-ray findings. Results : 1) $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging imagings showed positive uptakes in 24 patients and no uptakes in 13 patients, patients, which confirms active pulmonary tuberculosis. But SPECT imagings showed positive uptakes in 25 patients and no uptakes in 12 patients. 2) Patients confirmed with inactive pulmonary tuberculosis showed no uptake on $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging. Only one of the 32 patients confirmed as having inactive pulmonary tuberculosis showed positive uptake on $^{67}Ga$ SPECT imaging. Conclusions : According to the results of our study, $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging and SPECT are both sensitive in detecting the activity of minimal pulmonary tuberculosis. The difference between the two methods is not statistically significant, and the negative predictive value of the $^{67}Ga$ SPECT is not higher than that of $^{67}Ga$ planar imaging.

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Unbilled Revenue and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts (진행기준 수익인식 방법과 재무분석가 이익예측 - 미청구공사 계정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Bo-Mi;Park, Bo-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.151-165
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.

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Application of Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation in Patients with Respiratory Failure (호흡부전 환자에서 비침습적 양압환기법의 적용)

  • Seol, Young Mi;Park, Young Eun;Kim, Seo Rin;Lee, Jae Hyung;Lee, Su Jin;Kim, Ki Uk;Cho, Jin Hoon;Park, Hye Kyung;Kim, Yun Seong;Lee, Min Ki;Park, Soon Kew;Kim, Young Dae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.26-33
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    • 2006
  • Background: Noninvasive positive pressure ventilation(NPPV) has been increasingly used over the past decade in the management of acute or chronic respiratory failure and weaning of mechanical ventilation. We performed this clinical study to evaluate the usefulness of NPPV in patients who developed acute respiratory failure or post-extubation respiratory failure. Methods: We analysed thirty four patients(sixteen males and eighteen females, mean ages 58 years) who applied NPPV(BIPAP S/T, Respironics co., USA) for respiratory failure or weaning difficulty at medical intensive care unit(MICU), emergency room and general ward of a tertiary hospital. We evaluated the underlying causes of respiratory failure, duration of treatment, the degree of adaptation, complication and predictive parameters of successful outcome. Results: The overall success rate of NPPV was seventy-one percent. The duration of NPPV applying time, baseline blood pressure, pulse rate, respiration rate, $PaO_2$, $PaCO_2$, $SaO_2$ were not different between success group and failure group. But, the baseline pH was higher in the success group. Predictors of success were higher baseline pH, patients with underlying disease of COPD, improvement of vital sign and arterial blood gas value after NPPV application. The success rate in patients with post-extubation respiratory failure was eighty percent. There were no serious complication on applying NPPV except minor complications such as facial skin erythema, abdominal distension & dry mouth. Conclusion: NPPV may be effective treatment in patients with acute respiratory failure or post-extubation respiratory failure in selected cases.

Validation of QF-PCR for Rapid Prenatal Diagnosis of Common Chromosomal Aneuploidies in Korea

  • Han, Sung-Hee;Ryu, Jae-Song;An, Jeong-Wook;Park, Ok-Kyoung;Yoon, Hye-Ryoung;Yang, Young-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Quantitative fluorescent polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) allows for the rapid prenatal diagnosis of common aneuploidies. The main advantages of this assay are its low cost, speed, and automation, allowing for large-scale application. However, despite these advantages, it is not a routine method for prenatal aneuploidy screening in Korea. Our objective in the present study was to validate the performance of QF-PCR using short tandem repeat (STR) markers in a Korean population as a means for rapid prenatal diagnosis. Material and Methods: A QF-PCR assay using an Elucigene kit (Gen-Probe, Abingdon, UK), containing 20 STR markers located on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed on 847 amniotic fluid (AF) samples for prenatal aneuploidy screening referred for prenatal aneuploidy screening from 2007 to 2009. The results were then compared to those obtained using conventional cytogenetic analysis. To evaluate the informativity of STR markers, the heterozygosity index of each marker was determined in all the samples. Results: Three autosomes (13, 18, and 21) and X and Y chromosome aneuploidies were detected in 19 cases (2.2%, 19/847) after QF-PCR analysis of the 847 AF samples. Their results are identical to those of conventional cytogenetic analysis, with 100% positive predictive value. However, after cytogenetic analysis, 7 cases (0.8%, 7/847) were found to have 5 balanced and 2 unbalanced chromosomal abnormalities that were not detected by QF-PCR. The STR markers had a slightly low heterozygosity index (average: 0.76) compared to those reported in Caucasians (average: 0.80). Submicroscopic duplication of D13S634 marker, which might be a unique finding in Koreans, was detected in 1.4% (12/847) of the samples in the present study. Conclusion: A QF-PCR assay for prenatal aneuploidy screening was validated in our institution and proved to be efficient and reliable. However, we suggest that each laboratory must perform an independent validation test for each STR marker in order to develop interpretation guidelines of the results and must integrate QF-PCR into the routine cytogenetic laboratory workflow.

Differences in the Clinical Characteristics of Children with Urinary Tract Infections Based on the Results of $^{99m}Tc$-Dimercaptosuccinic Acid Renal Scanning (요로감염 소아에서 입원 초기 시행한 DMSA 신 스캔 결과에 따른 임상양상의 차이에 대한 연구: DMSA 신 스캔의 임상적 의미)

  • Kim, Dong Ouk;Lee, Sang Min;Lee, Jeong Bong;Ko, Young Bin;Kim, Su Jin
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The $^{99m}Tc$-Dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) renal scan is used primarily for the diagnosis of renal scarring and acute pyelonephritis in children with urinary tract infections (UTI). This study aimed to evaluate clinical differences based on the positive or negative results of DMSA scans and kidney ultrasonography (US) in pediatric UTI. Method: We retrospectively reviewed 142 pediatric patients with UTI who were admitted to Myongji Hospital from January 2004 to December 2012. We performed a comparative analysis of clinical parameters such as age, sex, white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil count, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, creatinine (Cr) level, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and durations of hospitalization and fever, grouped by the results of the DMSA scans and kidney US. Results: The mean age of the patients was $33.8{\pm}48.3$ months, and 78 (55%) were male. Fifty-two patients had abnormal DMSA findings, and 71 patients had abormal kidney US findings (test positive groups). In the DMSA scan positive group, there were significant differences in age, WBC counts, neutrophil counts, CRP level, BUN level, Cr level, hospitalization duration, number of abnormal findings on kidney US, and incidence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) compared with the scan negative group. The kidney US positive group had significant differences in age, neutrophil count, CRP level, BUN level, Cr level, hospitalization duration, number of abnormal findings on the DMSA scans, and more frequent VUR compared with the US negative group. Conclusion: Our data suggest that there were no major differences in clinical parameters based on the results of the DMSA scans compared with kidney US in pediatric UTI. However, as kidney US and DMSA scan were performed to predict VUR, the sensitivity and negative predictive value was increased.

Mathematical Transformation Influencing Accuracy of Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) Calibrations for the Prediction of Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters in Corn Silage (수 처리 방법이 근적외선분광법을 이용한 옥수수 사일리지의 화학적 조성분 및 발효품질의 예측 정확성에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Hyung-Soo;Kim, Ji-Hye;Choi, Ki-Choon;Kim, Hyeon-Seop
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to determine the effect of mathematical transformation on near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) calibrations for the prediction of chemical composition and fermentation parameters in corn silage. Corn silage samples (n=407) were collected from cattle farms and feed companies in Korea between 2014 and 2015. Samples of silage were scanned at 1 nm intervals over the wavelength range of 680~2,500 nm. The optical data were recorded as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R) and scanned in intact fresh condition. The spectral data were regressed against a range of chemical parameters using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with several spectral math treatments to reduce the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected based on the highest coefficients of determination in cross validation ($R^2{_{cv}}$) and the lowest standard error of cross validation (SECV). Results of this study revealed that the NIRS method could be used to predict chemical constituents accurately (correlation coefficient of cross validation, $R^2{_{cv}}$, ranging from 0.77 to 0.91). The best mathematical treatment for moisture and crude protein (CP) was first-order derivatives (1, 16, 16, and 1, 4, 4), whereas the best mathematical treatment for neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) was 2, 16, 16. The calibration models for fermentation parameters had lower predictive accuracy than chemical constituents. However, pH and lactic acids were predicted with considerable accuracy ($R^2{_{cv}}$ 0.74 to 0.77). The best mathematical treatment for them was 1, 8, 8 and 2, 16, 16, respectively. Results of this experiment demonstrate that it is possible to use NIRS method to predict the chemical composition and fermentation quality of fresh corn silages as a routine analysis method for feeding value evaluation to give advice to farmers.

Distribution and Potential Suitable Habitats of an Endemic Plant, Sophora koreensis in Korea (MaxEnt 분석을 통한 한반도 특산식물 개느삼 서식 가능지역 분석)

  • An, Jong-Bin;Sung, Chan Yong;Moon, Ae-Ra;Kim, Sodam;Jung, Ji-Young;Son, Sungwon;Shin, Hyun-Tak;Park, Wan-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.154-163
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    • 2021
  • This study was carried out to present the habitat distribution status and the habitat distribution prediction of Sophora koreensis, which is the Korean Endemic Plant included in the EN (Endangered) class of the IUCN Red List. The habit distribution survey of Sophora koreensis confirmed 19 habitats in Gangwon Province, including 13 habitats in Yanggu-gun, 3 habitats in Inje-gun, 2 habitats in Chuncheon-si, and 1 habitat in Hongcheon-gun. The northernmost habitat of Sophora koreensis in Korea was in Imdang-ri, Yanggu-gun; the easternmost habitat in Hangye-ri, Inje-gun; the westernmost habitat in Jinae-ri, Chuncheon-si; and the southernmost habitat in Sungdong-ri, Hongcheon-gun. The altitude of the Sophora koreensis habitats ranged from 169 to 711 m, with an average altitude of 375m. The area of the habitats was 8,000-734,000 m2, with an average area of 202,789 m2. Most habitats were the managed forests, such as thinning and pruning forests. The MaxEnt program analysis for the potential habitat of Sophora koreensis showed the AUC value of 0.9762. The predictive habitat distribution was Yanggu-gun, Inje-gun, Hwacheon-gun, and Chuncheon-si in Gangwon Province. The variables that influence the prediction of the habitat distribution were the annual precipitation, soil carbon content, and maximum monthly temperature. This study confirmed that habitats of Sophora koreensis were mostly found in the ridge area with rich light intensity. They can be used as basic data for the designation of protected areas of Sophora koreensis habitat.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.