• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국경영과학회 1993년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 서강대학교, 서울; 25 Sep. 1993
• /
• pp.24-30
• /
• 1993

When modeling a complex system we use an event tree to analyze propagation of failure. An event tree cannot represent the statistical interrelationships among parameters, but it can be represented as a statistically identical influence diagram so that parameter updating can be easily performed. After updating parameters we can calculate posterior distribution of the failure rate for each path. But exact distribution requires considerably complex numerical integration. We propose an approximation method to calculate the posterior and derive the predictive distribution of the time to next failure. Finally we introduce the system which implements our methodology.

• Journal of Power Electronics
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.202-215
• /
• 2015

This paper investigates the stability and performance of model predictive controlled active-front-end (AFE) rectifiers for energy storage systems, which has been increasingly applied in power distribution sectors and in renewable energy sources to ensure an uninterruptable power supply. The model predictive control (MPC) algorithm utilizes the discrete behavior of power converters to determine appropriate switching states by defining a cost function. The stability of the MPC algorithm is analyzed with the discrete z-domain response and the nonlinear simulation model. The results confirms that the control method of the active-front-end (AFE) rectifier is stable, and that is operates with an infinite gain margin and a very fast dynamic response. Moreover, the performance of the MPC controlled AFE rectifier is verified with a 3.0 kW experimental system. This shows that the MPC controlled AFE rectifier operates with a unity power factor, an acceptable THD (4.0 %) level for the input current and a very low DC voltage ripple. Finally, an efficiency comparison is performed between the MPC and the VOC-based PWM controllers for AFE rectifiers. This comparison demonstrates the effectiveness of the MPC controller.

• 급식외식위생학회지
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.84-90
• /
• 2021

This study was performed to assess the microbiological quality and safety of microgreen sampled from harvesting farms and food processing plant in Korea. The samples were analyzed for total viable counts, coliforms, Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Bacillus cereus, and Staphylococcus aureus. Total viable counts were highly contaminated in samples collected from farms (7.7~8.2 log CFU/g) and the final products (5.8~7.8 log CFU/g), respectively. B. cereus was detected less than 100 CFU/g, which was satisfied with Korean standards (<1,000 CFU/g) of fresh-cut produce. A predictive model was developed for the changes of total viable counts in microgreens during storage at 5~35℃. The predictive models were developed using the Baranyi model for the primary model and the square root model for the secondary model. The results obtained in this study can be useful to develop the safety management options along the food chain, including fresh-cut produce storage and distribution.

• 한국지형학회지
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2019

This study analyzed the relativity between block stream and talus distributions by employing a likelihood ratio approach. Possible distribution sites for each debris slope landform were extracted by applying a spatial integration model, in which we combined fuzzy set model, Bayesian predictive model, and logistic regression model. Moreover, to verify model performance, a success rate curve was prepared by cross-validation. The results showed that elevation, slope, curvature, topographic wetness index, geology, soil drainage, and soil depth were closely related to the debris slope landform sites. In addition, all spatial integration models displayed an accuracy of over 90%. The accuracy of the distribution potential area map of the block stream was highest in the logistic regression model (93.79%). Eventually, the accuracy of the distribution potential area map of the talus was also highest in the logistic regression model (97.02%). We expect that the present results will provide essential data and propose methodologies to improve the performance of efficient and systematic micro-landform studies. Moreover, our research will potentially help to enhance field research and topographic resource management.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
• /
• 제21권3호
• /
• pp.83-92
• /
• 2020

최근에 많은 기업 및 조직들이 비즈니스 프로세스 모델의 효율적 운용을 위해 예측적 프로세스 모니터링에 관심이 높아지고 있다. 기존의 프로세스 모니터링은 특정 프로세스 인스턴스의 경과된 실행상태에 초점을 두었다. 반면, 예측적 프로세스 모니터링은 특정 프로세스 인스턴스의 미래의 실행상태에 대한 예측에 초점을 둔다. 본 논문에서는 예측적 프로세스 모니터링 기능 중 하나인 비즈니스 프로세스 인스턴스 실행 잔여시간 예측기능을 구현한다. 잔여시간을 효과적으로 모델링하기 위해 액티비티별 속성에 따른 시간특징 값 분포 차이를 고려하여 액티비티별 특징 정규화를 제안하고 예측모델에 적용한다. 본 논문에서 제안된 모델의 예측성능 우수성을 입증하기 위해서 4TU.Centre for Research Data에서 제공하는 실제 기업의 이벤트 로그 데이터를 통해 선행연구들과 비교평가 한다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 1991년도 하계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.81-85
• /
• 1991

The distribution facilities fault has been anually shown about 13% all of the total distribution faults. Therefore, to prevent, the distribution facilities we have to manage them properly during their life time and enhance their quality and advance preventible maintenance, that is predictive maintenance or condition based maintenance. This paper presents the aging characteristics and the degenerating factors. Accordingly, improving the enhanced quality of distribution facilites is expected to contribute the electric power operation constantly.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.165-175
• /
• 2015

Energy storage system has been widely applied in power distribution sectors as well as in renewable energy sources to ensure uninterruptible power supply. This paper presents a model predictive algorithm to control a bidirectional AC-DC converter, which is used in an energy storage system for power transferring between the three-phase AC voltage supply and energy storage devices. This model predictive control (MPC) algorithm utilizes the discrete behavior of the converter and predicts the future variables of the system by defining cost functions for all possible switching states. Subsequently, the switching state that corresponds to the minimum cost function is selected for the next sampling period for firing the switches of the AC-DC converter. The proposed model predictive control scheme of the AC-DC converter allows bidirectional power flow with instantaneous mode change capability and fast dynamic response. The performance of the MPC controlled bidirectional AC-DC converter is simulated with MATLAB/Simulink(R) and further verified with 3.0kW experimental prototypes. Both the simulation and experimental results show that, the AC-DC converter is operated with unity power factor, acceptable THD (3.3% during rectifier mode and 3.5% during inverter mode) level of AC current and very low DC voltage ripple. Moreover, an efficiency comparison is performed between the proposed MPC and conventional VOC-based PWM controller of the bidirectional AC-DC converter which ensures the effectiveness of MPC controller.

• 지구물리와물리탐사
• /
• 제23권3호
• /
• pp.149-156
• /
• 2020

복잡하고 다양한 광상 생성 과정과 부존 위치의 심부화로 인하여 광물자원 탐사의 효율을 높일 수 있는 예측탐사의 필요성이 점차 높아지고 있다. 최근의 머신러닝 기법의 활용성 증가와 광역 지질 데이터베이스의 구축 상황을 고려하면, 예측탐사의 기반인 광상 배태 가능성 평가 기술의 신뢰도는 점차 높아질 것으로 예상된다. 이번 연구에서는 심층신경망을 이용하여 화성암과 단층 및 자력탐사 정보의 광화 인자로의 활용 가능성을 확인하였다. 지질 정보의 수치화 기법으로 단층, 화성암, 자력 정보를 입력 자료로 구성하여 0.9 이상의 정확도를 가지며 예측 값이 안정적으로 수렴하는 금속 광상 예측 모델을 구축할 수 있었다. 이 기술은 추후 정밀한 지질 조사 결과와 물리탐사 정보가 확보된다면, 광화대 규모에서의 예측 탐사에도 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 또한, 이 연구를 통해 지하의 화성암 정보를 제공하는 자력자료를 활용할 경우 지표의 화성암 정보를 보완하여 보다 높은 성능의 모델을 구축할 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 즉, 단순히 많은 자료를 융합하는 것 보다는 광체 성인과의 지질학적 상관관계를 고려하여 입력 자료를 구성하는 것이 보다 중요하다.

• 한국물환경학회지
• /
• 제39권6호
• /
• pp.465-474
• /
• 2023

The chemical composition and molecular weight characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) exert a profound influence on the efficiency of organic matter removal in water treatment systems, acting as efficiency predictive indicators. This research evaluated the primary chemical and molecular weight properties of DOM derived from diverse sources, including rivers, lakes, and biomasses, and assessed their relationship with the efficiency of coagulation/flocculation treatments. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal efficiency through coagulation/flocculation exhibited significant correlations with DOM's hydrophobic distribution, the ratio of humic-like to protein-like fluorescence, and the molecular weight associated with humic substances (HS). These findings suggest that the DOC removal rate in coagulation/flocculation processes is enhanced by a higher presence of HS in DOM, an increased influence of externally sourced DOM, and more presence of high molecular weight compounds. The results of this study further posit that the efficacy of water treatment processes can be more accurately predicted when considering multiple DOM characteristics rather than relying on a singular trait. Based on major results from this study, a predictive model for DOC removal efficiency by coagulation/flocculation was formulated as: 24.3 - 7.83 × (fluorescence index) + 0.089 × (hydrophilic distribution) + 0.102 × (HS molecular weight). This proposed model, coupled with supplementary monitoring of influent organic matter, has the potential to enhance the design and predictive accuracy for coagulation/flocculation treatments targeting DOC removal in future applications.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.103-110
• /
• 2011

Exponential distribution is widely adopted as a lifetime model. Many authors have considered the interval estimation of the parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution based on complete and censored samples. In this paper, we consider the interval estimation of the location and scale parameters and the joint confidence region of the parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution based on upper records. A simulation study is done for the performance of all proposed confidence intervals and regions. We also propose the predictive intervals of the future records. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed methods.