• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Recent Trends in Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers and the Observed Disturbance in 2014 (최근의 봄꽃 개화 추이와 2014년 개화시기의 혼란)

  • Lee, Ho-Seung;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2014
  • The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers such as magnolias, azaleas, forsythias, cherry blossoms and royal azaleas flowering sequentially one after another. However, the narrowing of south-north differences in flowering dates and those among the flower species was observed in 2014, taking a toll on economic and shared communal values of seasonal landscape. This study was carried out to determine whether the 2014 incidence is an outlier or a mega trend in spring phenology. Data on flowering dates of forsythias and cherry blossoms, two typical spring flower species, as observed for the recent 60 years in 6 weather stations of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicate that the difference spanning the flowering date of forsythias, the flower blooming earlier in spring, and that of cherry blossoms that flower later than forsythias was 30 days at the longest and 14 days on an average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, comparing with the period 1981-2010 when the difference narrowed to 21 days at the longest and 11 days on an average. The year 2014 in particular saw the gap further narrowing down to 7 days, making it possible to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time in the same location. 'Cherry blossom front' took 20 days in traveling from Busan, the earliest flowering station, to Incheon, the latest flowering station, in the case of the 1951-1980 normal year, while 16 days for the 1981-2010 and 6 days for 2014 were observed. The delay in flowering date of forsythias for each time period was 20, 17, and 12 days, respectively. It is presumed that the recent climate change pattern in the Korean Peninsula as indicated by rapid temperature hikes in late spring contrastive to slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossoms which comes later than forsythias which flowers early in spring. Thermal time based heating requirements for flowering of 2 species were estimated by analyzing the 60 year data at the 6 locations and used to predict flowering date in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species at all 6 locations, showing a feasibility of thermal time as a prognostic tool.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2016 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2016년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2017
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.

A Comparative Study on Failure Pprediction Models for Small and Medium Manufacturing Company (중소제조기업의 부실예측모형 비교연구)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Moon, Jong Geon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

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Development of a Window Program for Searching CpG Island (CpG Island 검색용 윈도우 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1132-1139
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    • 2008
  • A CpG island is a short stretch of DNA in which the frequency of the CG dinucleotide is higher than other regions. CpG islands are present in the promoters and exonic regions of approximately $30{\sim}60$% of mammalian genes so they are useful markers for genes in organisms containing 5-methylcytosine in their genomes. Recent evidence supports the notion that the hypermethylation of CpG island, by silencing tumor suppressor genes, plays a major causal role in cancer, which has been described in almost every tumor types. In this respect, CpG island search by computational methods is very helpful for cancer research and computational promoter and gene predictions. I therefore developed a window program (called CpGi) on the basis of CpG island criteria defined by D. Takai and P. A. Jones. The program 'CpGi' was implemented in Visual C++ 6.0 and can determine the locations of CpG islands using diverse parameters (%GC, Obs (CpG)/Exp (CpG), window size, step size, gap value, # of CpG, length) specified by user. The analysis result of CpGi provides a graphical map of CpG islands and G+C% plot, where more detailed information on CpG island can be obtained through pop-up window. Two human contigs, i.e. AP00524 (from chromosome 22) and NT_029490.3 (from chromosome 21), were used to compare the performance of CpGi and two other public programs for the accuracy of search results. The two other programs used in the performance comparison are Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher that are web-based public CpG island search programs. The comparison result showed that CpGi is on a level with or outperforms Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher. Having a simple and easy-to-use user interface, CpGi would be a very useful tool for genome analysis and CpG island research. To obtain a copy of CpGi for academic use only, contact corresponding author.

Behavior and Analysis of Laterally Loaded Model Pile in Nak-dong River Fine Sand

  • Kim, Young-Su;Seo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.25-46
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    • 1998
  • This paper shows that there are the results of a series of model tests on the behavior of single pipe pile which is subjected to lateral load in, Nak-dong River sand. The purpose of the present paper is to estimate the effect of Non-homogeneity. constraint condition of pile head, lateral load velocity, relative density, and embedded length of pile on the behavior of single pile. These effects can be quantified only by the results of model tests. Also, these are compared with the results of the numerical methods (p-y method, modified Vlasov method; new ${\gamma}$ parameter, Characteristic Load Method'CLM). In this study, a new ${\gamma}$ parameter equation based on the Vlasov method was developed to calculate the modulus of subgrade reaction (E. : nhz.) proportional to the depth. The p-y method of analysis is characterized by nonlinear behavior. and is an effective method of designing deep foundations subjected to lateral loads. The new method, which is called the characteristic load method (CLM). is simpler than p-y analysis. but its results closely approximates p-y analysis results. The method uses dimensional analysis to characterize the nonlinear behavior of laterally loaded piles with respect to be relationships among dimensionless variables. The modulus of subgrade reaction used in p-y analysis and modified Vlasov method obtained from back analysis using direct shear test (DST) results. The coefficients obtained from DST and the modified ones used for the prediction of lateral behavior of ultimate soil reaction range from 0.014 to 0.05. and from 0.2 to 0.4 respectively. It is shown that the predicted numerical results by the new method (CLM), p-y analysis, and modified Vlasov method (new parameter) agree well with measured results as the relative density increases. Also, the characteristic load method established applicability on the Q-Mnu. relationship below y/D=0.2.

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Development of Unfolding Energy Spectrum with Clinical Linear Accelerator based on Transmission Data (물질투과율 측정정보 기반 의료용 선형가속기의 에너지스펙트럼 유도기술 개발)

  • Choi, Hyun Joon;Park, Hyo Jun;Yoo, Do Hyeon;Kim, Byoung-Chul;Yi, Chul-Young;Min, Chul Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2016
  • Background: For the accurate dose assessment in radiation therapy, energy spectrum of the photon beam generated from the linac head is essential. The aim of this study is to develop the technique to accurately unfolding the energy spectrum with the transmission analysis method. Materials and Methods: Clinical linear accelerator and Monet Carlo method was employed to evaluate the transmission signals according to the thickness of the observer material, and then the response function of the ion chamber response was determined with the mono energy beam. Finally the energy spectrum was unfolded with HEPROW program. Elekta Synergy Flatform and Geant4 tool kits was used in this study. Results and Discussion: In the comparison between calculated and measured transmission signals using aluminum alloy as an attenuator, root mean squared error was 0.43%. In the comparison between unfolded spectrum using HEPROW program and calculated spectrum using Geant4, the difference of peak and mean energy were 0.066 and 0.03 MeV, respectively. However, for the accurate prediction of the energy spectrum, additional experiment with various type of material and improvement of the unfolding program is required. Conclusion: In this research, it is demonstrated that unfolding spectra technique could be used in megavoltage photon beam with aluminum alloy and HEPROW program.

A study of Korean Norm about tooth size and ratio in Korean adults with normal occlusion (한국성인 정상교합자의 치아크기와 비율에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Kim, Young-Jun;Choi, Jae-Hoon;Han, Jong-Hoon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.31 no.5 s.88
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    • pp.505-515
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the average tooth size of Korean with normal occlusion. According to the study, the average tooth ratios between the upper and lower teeth which could assure the proper ovebite, overjet and good interdigitation were calculated. The normal occluson sample of this study consisted of 43 Korean male adults and 51 Korean female adults. Among them, 22 Korean male adults and 51 Korean female adults were from KAO(Korean Association of Orthodontists), 21 Korean male adults were from Department of Orthodontics, College of Dentistry, Yonsei University. The results from this study were as follows : 1 The average tooth size of Korean Norm classified by male and female was measured. 2. The average tooth size of Korean male adults with normal occlusion was significantly larger than that of Korean female adults except upper and lower first molars. (p<0.05) 3. The tooth ratio which could Predict the proper overbite and overjet in anterior teeth and proper occlusion in posterior teeth was calculated. 1) Sum of inciosrs = 4:2.97 2) Neff's anterior coefficient = 1.22 3) Bolton's anterior ratio = 78.29%, overall ratio = 91.14% 4. A positive correlation was observed between the sum of lower anterior incisors and the sum of unilateral canine and premolars In each jaw. Based this correlation, the regression equation was made which could Predict the sum of unerupted unilateral canine and premolars in mired dentition. 1) Sum of unilateral unerupted upper canine and premolars' width = 10.435018 + 0.513346 ${\times}$ (sum or lower 4 incisors' width) 2) Sum of unilateral unerupted lower canine and premolars' width = 9.654002 + 0.502565 ${\times}$ (sum of lower 4 incisors' width)

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Identification of Characteristics and Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Hydrops Fetalis (태아수종의 특성 및 사망률과 연관된 위험인자)

  • Ko, Hoon;Lee, Byong-Sop;Kim, Ki-Soo;Won, Hye-Sung;Lee, Pil-Ryang;Shim, Jae-Yoon;Kim, Ahm;Kim, Ai-Rhan
    • Neonatal Medicine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The objectives were to identify the characteristics of neonates with hydrops fetalis, and to identify the risk factors associated with mortality. Methods: A retrospective review of AMC (Asan Medical Center) dataset was performed from January 1990 to June 2009. The characteristics of 71 patients with hydrops fetalis were investigated and they were divided into two groups: the survived group and the expired group. Various perinatal and neonatal factors in two groups were compared to find out risk factors associated with mortality based on univariate analysis, followed by multiple regression analyses (SPSS version 18.0). Results: Of those 71 neonates (average gestational age: 33 weeks, birth weight: 2.6 kg), 38 survived, 33 died, resulting in overall mortality rate of 46.5%. The most common etiology was idiopathic followed by chylothorax, cardiac anomalies, twin-to-twin transfusion, meconium peritonitis, cardiac arrythmias, and congenital infections. Factors that were associated independently with mortality in logistic regression analyses were low 5-minutes Apgar score, hyaline membrane disease and delayed in achieving 50th percentile ideal body weight for appropriate gestational age by 10 days. Conclusion: In this study, 5-minutes Apgar score, hyaline membrane disease and delayed in achieving 50th percentile ideal body weight for appropriate gestational age by 10 days were significant risk factors associated with mortality in hydrops fetalis. Therefore, the risk of death among neonates with hydrops fetalis depends on the illness immediately after birth and severity of hydrops fetalis. Informations from this study may prove useful in prediction of prognosis to neonates with hydrops fetalis.

Leaching of Organophosphorus and Carbamate Pesticides in Soil Column and Prediction of Their Mobility Using the Convective Mobility Test Model in Soils (유기인계 및 카바메이트계 농약의 토주용탈과 대류이동성 모형에 의한 이동성 예측)

  • Kim, Chan-Sub;Ihm, Yang-Bin;Lee, Hee-Dong;Oh, Byung-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to investigate the downward mobility of pesticides using soil columns and to compare the experimental results with values predicted from Convective mobility test model. Nine pesticides such as metolcarb, molinate, fanobucarb, isazofos, diazinon, fenitrothion, dimepiperate, parathion and chlorpyrifos-methyl were used for leaching test in soil column for four soils; Jungdong (upland soil), Gangseo (paddy soil), Yesan (forest soil), and Sineom(upland, volcanic ash-derived soil) series. The peak concentrations leached from 10 cm-columns of three soils except Sineom series ranged 6.5 to 12.6 mg/L for metolcarb, 2.6 to 5.0 mg/L for molinate, 4.5 to 7.8 mg/L for fenobucarb, 0.39 to 1.36 mg/L for dimepiperate, 1.1 to 4.6 mg/L for isazofos, 0.01 to 0.14 mg/L for diazinon, lower than 0.01 to 0.70 mg/L for fenitrothion and lower than 0.01 to 0.44 mg/L for parathion. But chlorpyrifos-methyl was not leached from any soil columns. Elution volumes to reach the peak of metolcarb, molinate, fenobucarb, isazofos, diazinon, and dimepiperate in the leachate ranged 1.1 to 2.1 pore volume (PV), 1.6 to 3.3 PV, 1.6 to 3.3 PV, 2.1 to 4.4 PV, 6 to 15 PV, and 8 to 21 PV, respectively. On the same water flux conditions, convection times estimated by Convective mobility test model were coincided with results from soil column test in most of the soil-pesticide combinations applied. Based on convection times estimated by the model at standard conditions (water flux 1 cm/day), metolcarb was classified as most mobile, molinate, fenobucarb and isazofos as mobile or most mobile, dimepiperate as moderately mobile or mobile, diazinon as mobile, fenitrothion and parathion as slightly mobile or mobile and chlorpyrifos-methyl as immobile or slightly mobile.

Prediction of Isothermal and Reacting Flows in Widely-Spaced Coaxial Jet, Diffusion-Flame Combustor (큰 지름비를 가지는 동축제트 확산화염 연소기내의 등온 및 연소 유동장의 예측)

  • O, Gun-Seop;An, Guk-Yeong;Kim, Yong-Mo;Lee, Chang-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.2386-2396
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    • 1996
  • A numerical simulation has been performed for isothermal and reacting flows in an exisymmetric, bluff-body research combustor. The present formulation is based on the density-weighted averaged Navier-Stokes equations together with a k-epsilon. turbulence model and a modified eddy-breakup combustion model. The PISO algorithm is employed for solution of thel Navier-Stokes system. Comparison between measurements and predictions are made for a centerline axial velocities, location of stagnation points, strength of recirculation zone, and temperature profile. Even though the numerical simulation gives acceptable agreement with experimental data in many respects, the present model is defictient in predicting the recoveryt rate of a central near-wake region, the non-isotropic turbulence effects, and variation of turbulent Schmidt number. Several possible explanations for these discrepancies have been discussed.