• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Development of Comparative Verification System for Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Line Load Prediction Model (배전 선로 부하예측 모델의 신뢰성 평가를 위한 비교 검증 시스템)

  • Lee, Haesung;Lee, Byung-Sung;Moon, Sang-Keun;Kim, Junhyuk;Lee, Hyeseon
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.115-123
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    • 2021
  • Through machine learning-based load prediction, it is possible to prevent excessive power generation or unnecessary economic investment by estimating the appropriate amount of facility investment in consideration of the load that will increase in the future or providing basic data for policy establishment to distribute the maximum load. However, in order to secure the reliability of the developed load prediction model in the field, the performance comparison verification between the distribution line load prediction models must be preceded, but a comparative performance verification system between the distribution line load prediction models has not yet been established. As a result, it is not possible to accurately determine the performance excellence of the load prediction model because it is not possible to easily determine the likelihood between the load prediction models. In this paper, we developed a reliability verification system for load prediction models including a method of comparing and verifying the performance reliability between machine learning-based load prediction models that were not previously considered, verification process, and verification result visualization methods. Through the developed load prediction model reliability verification system, the objectivity of the load prediction model performance verification can be improved, and the field application utilization of an excellent load prediction model can be increased.

Health Examination Data Based Medical Treatment Prediction by Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 건강검진정보 기반 진료과목 예측)

  • Piao, Minghao;Byun, Jeong-Yong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2017
  • Nowadays, living standard is improved and people have high interest to the personal health care problem. Accordingly, people desire to know the personal physical condition and the related medical treatment. Thus, there is the necessary of the personalized medical treatment, and there are many studies about the automatic disease diagnosis and the related services. Those studies focus on the particular disease prediction which is based on the related particular data. However, there is no studies about the medical treatment prediction. In our study, national health data based medical treatment predictor is built by using SVM, and the performance is evaluated by comparing with other prediction methods. The experimental results show that the health data based medical treatment prediction resulted in the average accuracy of 80%, and the SVM performs better than other prediction algorithms.

A supervised-learning-based spatial performance prediction framework for heterogeneous communication networks

  • Mukherjee, Shubhabrata;Choi, Taesang;Islam, Md Tajul;Choi, Baek-Young;Beard, Cory;Won, Seuck Ho;Song, Sejun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.686-699
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose a supervised-learning-based spatial performance prediction (SLPP) framework for next-generation heterogeneous communication networks (HCNs). Adaptive asset placement, dynamic resource allocation, and load balancing are critical network functions in an HCN to ensure seamless network management and enhance service quality. Although many existing systems use measurement data to react to network performance changes, it is highly beneficial to perform accurate performance prediction for different systems to support various network functions. Recent advancements in complex statistical algorithms and computational efficiency have made machine-learning ubiquitous for accurate data-based prediction. A robust network performance prediction framework for optimizing performance and resource utilization through a linear discriminant analysis-based prediction approach has been proposed in this paper. Comparison results with different machine-learning techniques on real-world data demonstrate that SLPP provides superior accuracy and computational efficiency for both stationary and mobile user conditions.

DNA methylation-based age prediction from various tissues and body fluids

  • Jung, Sang-Eun;Shin, Kyoung-Jin;Lee, Hwan Young
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.50 no.11
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    • pp.546-553
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    • 2017
  • Aging is a natural and gradual process in human life. It is influenced by heredity, environment, lifestyle, and disease. DNA methylation varies with age, and the ability to predict the age of donor using DNA from evidence materials at a crime scene is of considerable value in forensic investigations. Recently, many studies have reported age prediction models based on DNA methylation from various tissues and body fluids. Those models seem to be very promising because of their high prediction accuracies. In this review, the changes of age-associated DNA methylation and the age prediction models for various tissues and body fluids were examined, and then the applicability of the DNA methylation-based age prediction method to the forensic investigations was discussed. This will improve the understandings about DNA methylation markers and their potential to be used as biomarkers in the forensic field, as well as the clinical field.

Analysis of low level cloud prediction in the KMA Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System(LDAPS) (기상청 국지예보모델의 저고도 구름 예측 분석)

  • Ahn, Yongjun;Jang, Jiwon;Kim, Ki-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.124-129
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    • 2017
  • Clouds are an important factor in aircraft flight. In particular, a significant impact on small aircraft flying at low altitude. Therefore, we have verified and characterized the low level cloud prediction data of the Unified Model(UM) - based Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System(LDAPS) operated by KMA in order to develop cloud forecasting service and contents important for safety of low-altitude aircraft flight. As a result of the low level cloud test for seven airports in Korea, a high correlation coefficient of 0.4 ~ 0.7 was obtained for 0-36 leading time. Also, we found that the prediction performance does not decrease as the lead time increases. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that model-based forecasting data for low-altitude aviation meteorology services can be produced.

Severity-based Software Quality Prediction using Class Imbalanced Data

  • Hong, Euy-Seok;Park, Mi-Kyeong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2016
  • Most fault prediction models have class imbalance problems because training data usually contains much more non-fault class modules than fault class ones. This imbalanced distribution makes it difficult for the models to learn the minor class module data. Data imbalance is much higher when severity-based fault prediction is used. This is because high severity fault modules is a smaller subset of the fault modules. In this paper, we propose severity-based models to solve these problems using the three sampling methods, Resample, SpreadSubSample and SMOTE. Empirical results show that Resample method has typical over-fit problems, and SpreadSubSample method cannot enhance the prediction performance of the models. Unlike two methods, SMOTE method shows good performance in terms of AUC and FNR values. Especially J48 decision tree model using SMOTE outperforms other prediction models.

Development of a Medial Care Cost Prediction Model for Cancer Patients Using Case-Based Reasoning (사례기반 추론을 이용한 암 환자 진료비 예측 모형의 개발)

  • Chung, Suk-Hoon;Suh, Yong-Moo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2006
  • Importance of Today's diffusion of integrated hospital information systems is that various and huge amount of data is being accumulated in their database systems. Many researchers have studied utilizing such hospital data. While most researches were conducted mainly for medical diagnosis, there have been insufficient studies to develop medical care cost prediction model, especially using machine learning techniques. In this research, therefore, we built a medical care cost prediction model for cancer patients using CBR (Case-Based Reasoning), one of the machine learning techniques. Its performance was compared with those of Neural Networks and Decision Tree models. As a result of the experiment, the CBR prediction model was shown to be the best in general with respect to error rate and linearity between real values and predicted values. It is believed that the medical care cost prediction model can be utilized for the effective management of limited resources in hospitals.

Novel Motion and Disparity Prediction for Multi-view Video Coding

  • Lim, Woong;Nam, Junghak;Sim, Donggyu
    • IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.118-127
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents an efficient motion and disparity prediction method for multi-view video coding based on the high efficient video coding (HEVC) standard. The proposed method exploits inter-view candidates for effective prediction of the motion or disparity vector to be coded. The inter-view candidates include not only the motion vectors of adjacent views, but also global disparities across views. The motion vectors coded earlier in an adjacent view were found to be helpful in predicting the current motion vector to reduce the number of bits used in the motion vector information. In addition, the proposed disparity prediction using the global disparity method was found to be effective for interview predictions. A multi-view version based on HEVC was used to evaluate the proposed algorithm, and the proposed correspondence prediction method was implemented on a multi-view platform based on HEVC. The proposed algorithm yielded a coding gain of approximately 2.9% in a high efficiency configuration random access mode.

Performance Evaluation of a Feature-Importance-based Feature Selection Method for Time Series Prediction

  • Hyun, Ahn
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.82-89
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    • 2023
  • Various machine-learning models may yield high predictive power for massive time series for time series prediction. However, these models are prone to instability in terms of computational cost because of the high dimensionality of the feature space and nonoptimized hyperparameter settings. Considering the potential risk that model training with a high-dimensional feature set can be time-consuming, we evaluate a feature-importance-based feature selection method to derive a tradeoff between predictive power and computational cost for time series prediction. We used two machine learning techniques for performance evaluation to generate prediction models from a retail sales dataset. First, we ranked the features using impurity- and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) -based feature importance measures in the prediction models. Then, the recursive feature elimination method was applied to eliminate unimportant features sequentially. Consequently, we obtained a subset of features that could lead to reduced model training time while preserving acceptable model performance.

Uncertainty assessment of ensemble streamflow prediction method (앙상블 유량예측기법의 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;Kang, Shin-Uk;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.